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NHL Betting Picks: Friday 11/3/23

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz

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NHL Betting Picks: Friday 11/3/23

We close out this week with just two games on Friday. Let's see where we can place our money tonight.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres

Flyers ML (+142)

This is a home-and-home series between the Philadelphia Flyers and Buffalo Sabres. Buffalo won the game on Wednesday and now returns home tonight.

Despite winning that game, the Sabres weren't too convincing. They totaled just 15 shots on goal and six high-danger chances in that game.

The Flyers, meanwhile, had 40 shots on goal and 14 high-danger chances. They also created 3.21 expected goals.

The line for this matchup has swung massively in favor of Buffalo because of an injury to Philly goalie Carter Hart. Samuel Ersson has not been good in goal for the Flyers this season but performed reasonably well last year. He was able to save 2.29 goals above expected in 12 appearances in 2022-23.

If the Flyers can control play like they did on Wednesday, they have a real chance to win despite the goalie downgrade. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has allowed 12 goals over expected in 50 career games, so it's not like the Sabres have some big advantage in goal.

Philly is eighth in expected goals percentage at five-on-five, while Buffalo is 18th. Getting a +142 ML number on a team that has the five-on-five advantage makes the Flyers a good team to back tonight.

New Jersey Devils at St. Louis Blues

Over 6.5 Goals (-132)

The New Jersey Devils have had quite the start to the season. They are 6-2-1 and one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference -- as many expected they'd be.

What people did not expect was the way their defense has played. They've allowed the sixth-most goals per game in the NHL.

Most of that has been down to the goaltending. Akira Schmid -- who will be in net tonight -- has an abysmal .862 save percentage this season and has allowed 1.07 goals above expected in three games.

Luckily for the Devils, they've been able to make up for their poor goaltending. They've scored 4.22 goals per game, the second-most in the NHL. Their power play is clicking at a stunning 44.7% rate, tops in the league.

The St. Louis Blues have been basically the opposite of the Devils thus far. Their games have seen a total of only 4.63 goals on average. Part of this has been because of Jordan Binnington has played well so far, saving 2.27 goals above expected.

This is a far cry from how he's performed in the last two seasons. In 2021-22 and 2022-23, he combined for -16.84 goals saved above expected.

St. Louis is due for some regression in the finishing department. They have the fourth-worst shooting percentage in the league. Last season, they were the fourth-best team in this metric. Sure, they lost some players, but the Blues still have guys -- such as Jordan Kyrou -- who should be able to put the puck in the net.

With the Devils playing on a back-to-back, they may be tired and could allow some scoring chances on sloppy play. If Schmid continues to play like he has, that could lead to goals for the Blues.

New Jersey's games have been full of goals, and we should expect that to continue tonight.


Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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