NHL Betting Picks for Tuesday 11/14/23: Canadiens Can Douse the Flames

We've got a typical Tuesday night in the NHL with lots of action. Let's see which bets we should make on this nine-game slate.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Calgary Flames at Montreal Canadiens

Montreal ML (+130)

The Montreal Canadiens are one of the only Canadian teams that hasn't experienced a crisis so far this season. That's because expectations were low heading into the season. They've definitely played above those expectations in the first month.

Montreal's 7-6-2 record is nothing to write home about, but they were expected to be much worse. They aren't the best at driving play -- sporting just a 47.22% expected goal rate at five-on-five -- but have gotten good goaltending to make up for that.

Much was said about the play of Jake Allen to start the season, and how he's been stealing games for the Habs. Sam Montembeault has been good, as well, as the number two goalie, and he boasts an excellent .957 five-on-five save percentage. Montembeault was also great last season, saving 16.78 goals above expected in 40 games.

The Calgary Flames are definitely one of the Canadian teams that have been going through a crisis this season. They sit 30th in the NHL at 4-8-2 and have gone 2-7-1 in their last 10 games.

Like last season, their underlying numbers look pretty good. They get 52.21% of the shot attempts at five-on-five and 50.93% of the expected goals (xG).

Where Calgary has come up short since the start of last season is putting the puck in the back of the net and getting saves. They have the third-lowest PDO in the NHL. PDO is an acronym that doesn't stand for anything but is a metric that measures a team's total shooting percentage plus save percentage.

The thinking is that this will add up to 1.000 over time, and anything above or below that will regress. The Flames were at .977 last season and are at .959 this season. While regression should be expected, it's hard to give the Flames the benefit of the doubt anymore that it will get up to 1.000.

It seems like that regression is baked into this line to make Calgary favorites on the road, but I'm not sure it necessarily should be. That's why I'm taking the home underdog in the Canadiens.

Arizona Coyotes at Dallas Stars

Under 6.5 (-122)

The Dallas Stars have earned a reputation for being a very solid defensive team over the last few seasons. That's definitely true again this season. They are allowing the fifth-fewest goals per game in the league.

The Arizona Coyotes certainly aren't a laughing stock on the ice this season. They are 7-6-1 in 14 games. Given their defensive personnel, it's pretty surprising that they are in the top half of the league in goals allowed per game.

Even though they've been better than expected, Arizona's offense is still not the strongest. They are 19th in scoring chance rate, 20th in high-danger chance rate, and 29th in shot-attempt rate. It's unlikely that they will be able to create a lot of chances against a team like Dallas.

Jake Oettinger will be in net for Dallas. He's one of the best goalies in the league and can shut the door on nearly any offense in the NHL. He's saved 7.31 goals above expected in 10 games this season.

I don't see Arizona scoring more than twice against Oettinger tonight, meaning Dallas would have to score five goals for this game to go over. That feels like a bit of a stretch, so I'm taking the under on 6.5 goals tonight.

Pittsburgh Penguins at Columbus Blue Jackets

Pittsburgh -1.5 (+128)

It hasn't all been smooth sailing for the Pittsburgh Penguins to start the season. They were expected to be playoff contenders again after acquiring Erik Karlsson, but some poor play made people question if that was really the case for them this season.

The calendar flipping to November seemed to do a trick for them. In the 11th month of the year, they've won all four of their games and have outscored opponents 20-5. Starting goalie Tristan Jarry is back healthy, and the team is looking to continue to roll.

The Penguins are controlling 55.46% of the xG at five-on-five this season. When you have talent like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Jake Guentzel, getting this many chances should lead to a ton of offensive success.

The Columbus Blue Jackets will be their opponent tonight. Columbus sits dead last in the Eastern Conference and has won just one of their last 10 games.

They really struggle in the xG department, as just 45.76% of the xG goes in their favor at five-on-five.

The Penguins' power play ranks just 18th in the league, which is shocking given their level of talent. They are due for some regression in that area, though. They have the eighth-lowest shooting percentage despite creating the fifth-most high-danger chances per 60 minutes with the man advantage.

It's not easy laying 1.5 goals on the road, but the Penguins are much better than the Jackets. If there was a spot on the road where they should be able to cover the spread, this is it.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.