NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 2/18/24

Sunday in the NHL is usually quiet, and today is no different with just three games. How can we find value amongst them?

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

My favorite picks are on the way, but don't forget to check out FanDuel's Parlay Hub to see other trending bets in all sports -- including ice hockey.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

NHL Best Bets

New York Rangers at New York Islanders

Islanders ML (+120)
Brock Nelson to Record 3+ Shots on Goal (-130)

Don't look now, but Patrick Roy has seemingly turned the New York Islanders in the right direction.

Over the past 30 days, the Isles' expected-goals-for rate (xGF%) is 52.6%, the 11th-best mark in hockey. That even trumps the mark of the vaunted New York Rangers (51.6%) in this period.

At home in the NHL's Stadium Series, the goaltending favors the Long Island side, too. In this same time frame, the Isles' Ilya Sorokin has posted 4.77 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) compared to the Rags' Igor Shesterkin at -0.97.

Agreeing with my colleague Tom Vecchio's under forecast, I'll take the better skating and goaltending club at present.

I noticed this prop with Brock Nelson that correlates decently well with an Islanders dub. Nelson's implied odds of 56.5% to record three shots on goal are a bit stupefying to me. He's hit this mark in 9 of his last 12 games with a season average of 3.21 per game.

FanDuel Research's NHL player projections have Nelson pegged for a team-best 3.18 shots on goal in this contest -- and that's at a median.

Arizona Coyotes at Colorado Avalanche

Coyotes +1.5 (-115)
Sean Durzi to Record a Point (+132)

The Colorado Avalanche carry their usual lofty price to win a game in Denver, but they're just not the same Avs we've grown accustomed to since hoisting the cup in 2022.

In fact, in the past 30 days, Colorado's 45.5 xGF% is eighth-worst in the NHL. There'd be zero doubt they are overvalued in this space if the Arizona Coyotes weren't the worst team in the NHL (41.0%) in the same period.

Still, that gap isn't wide enough to merit an even-money puckline. numberFire's model believes Arizona still covers a one-goal margin 52.9% of the time.

I'm also taking a shot that some offense might lead to a scoresheet impact for Arizona's top defenseman, Sean Durzi. Durzi's role isn't the issue, sitting atop the Yotes' lead even-strength and power-play lines while logging 23:27 TOI in February. Arizona's overall struggles -- finding the back of the net just 11 times this month -- have been the problem for him.

Nonetheless, FDR's projections expect 0.16 goals and 0.40 assists from Durzi in 23.1 minutes on the ice tonight. Those projections would imply -127 odds for a point, but the blue-liner's prop sits at a +132 mark that won't even require a unit bet to win one.

Los Angeles Kings at Pittsburgh Penguins

Over 6.5 (+116)
Sidney Crosby Anytime Goal (+125)

This game total actually sits at 5.5 with extreme juice in FanDuel's traditional markets, but I'll leap to the alternate market expecting a decent offensive showing in Pittsburgh today.

On the second leg of a back-to-back, the Los Angeles Kings will be forced toward Cam Talbot in goal, and that's spelled trouble all month. In the past 30 days, Talbot is 63rd of 64 qualifiers in GSAx (-7.56), and L.A.'s defensive legs won't be entirely fresh. Yikes.

On the flip side, the Pittsburgh Penguins' defense (2.55 xG allowed per 60 minutes) has shined in this period, but goalie Tristan Jarry's blistering start has cooled to just 1.04 GSAx during it. Plus, the Kings are 11th during the last month in xG per 60 as an offense (3.18).

Overall, I see an offensive tilt in this game as Talbot and Jarry have both faded. With that the case, I was surprised to be showing the most goal-scoring value on a star, Pittsburgh's Sidney Crosby.

Crosby might have to do more heavy lifting in the scoring area with Jake Guentzel on injured reserve, and he got off to a nice start with two goals on Thursday. Sid has already posted 0.58 goals per game this season, and the Kings' struggling netminder isn't exactly an obstacle to one.

FDR's projection for Crosby goals (0.51) would award -104 odds to net one, but Crosby can be had at +125. I prefer taking this dart with him than his linemates; Mike Sullivan could continue to shuffle other players off the top lines as they mix and match in Guentzel's absence.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.