NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 12/3/23

Sunday in the NHL during football season is usually quiet, and today is no different with just five games. How can we find value amongst them?

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Chicago Blackhawks at Minnesota Wild

Over 6.5 (+102)
Kirill Kaprizov Anytime Goal (+125)

NHL totals between bad teams are always so intriguing to watch betting behavior. This one is trending towards the under, but I just couldn't disagree more which side wins out.

The Minnesota Wild's goaltending situation is impossibly bad. Both Filip Gustavsson (-4.71 GSAx) and Marc-Andre Fleury (-6.13 GSAx) rank in the league's bottom eight for goals saved above expectation. It appears it'll be Fleury today, but it doesn't really matter.

On the other side, the Chicago Blackhawks' young skaters are causing their defensive woes. They're allowing 3.46 expected goals per 60 minutes (sixth-worst in the NHL), and Petr Mrazek (-0.76 GSAx) hasn't made a substantial effort fixing the problem in goal.

There are talented goal-scorers on both of these clubs as they meet their defensive match; I love the over at plus money here.

One of those is Minnesota's Kirill Kaprizov, who tallied 5 goals and 34 shots in 12 November contests. I'm expecting Kaprizov's goal-scoring to increase soon; he's only shooting 9.9% this season compared to 15.3% a year ago.

numberFire's model would assign -178 odds on Kaprizov to score given a median projection of 0.64 goals, so these +125 odds are a gift when we're expecting some offense anyway.

Nashville Predators at Buffalo Sabres

Predators ML (-105)

Both of these teams are on the second leg of a back-to-back, and both saved their starting goaltender for a more winnable game on Sunday. With that, I'm not sure how the Buffalo Sabres are favored.

Even without the context of Buffalo being an inferior version of its season-long self with Tage Thompson (upper body) sidelined, every arrow is pointing in the Nashville Predators' direction substantially.

Nashville's 53.3% expected-goals-for rate (xGF%) is sixth-best in the NHL, and Buffalo's is seventh-worst (46.7 xGF%).

If you want to give a slight nod in goal to the Sabres, I won't stop you. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (1.89 GSAx) has outperformed Juuse Saros (-3.43 GSAx) this season, but since the start of 2022-23, Saros (42.06 total GSAx) has easily been the more well-known quantity.

If the argument to back Buffalo is the slight advantage of current form on their goaltender and home ice, I'll take the better team and a goaltender that's bound to turn things around soon.

Colorado Avalanche at Los Angeles Kings

Kings -1.5 (+180)
Adrian Kempe Anytime Goal (+170)

Rather than take huge stabs at this titanic clash, I prefer these sub-one-unit darts.

This would be an entertaining playoff series, but the Los Angeles Kings have massive advantages entering this contest on Sunday. They haven't played since Wednesday, and the Colorado Avalanche played -- and lost to -- the Anaheim Ducks on Saturday.

Beyond that, L.A. has been the better hockey team this year. When looking at skaters, their 56.8 xGF% leads the entire NHL, and Colorado (53.4 xGF%) trails despite a quality mark themselves.

In goal, the gap is even wider. Cam Talbot is 11th of 74 qualifying goalies in GSAx (8.79) in the NHL, and Alexandar Georgiev (1.54) ranks 38th. Again, this is not an indictment of the Avalanche as much as a world-class appraisal of the Silver and Black.

If the Kings are pulling away, numberFire's projections believe top winger Adrian Kempe will be involved. Kempe's 18:50 TOI average would represent a new-career high, and he's firing a healthy 3.55 shots per game.

The model would assign his anytime goal odds at -122, so the +170 odds here are a steal.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.