NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 12/30/23

Saturday usually means a busy night on the ice, and we've got 18 teams in action at some point today. With no shortage of options to choose from, there are some pretty tasty wagers sitting at FanDuel Sportsbook's proverbial kiosks.

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

NHL Best Bets

St. Louis Blues at Pittsburgh Penguins

Under 6.5 (-128)

I'd sprint to the window if you like this one. It moved from -114 to -128 just in the hour it took to comprise some other picks, so sharps are moving it quickly.

Personally, it's easy to see why. On the second leg of a back-to-back, the St. Louis Blues are no offensive juggernaut as it stands. They're 16th in expected goals per 60 minutes (3.11) and enter off a 2-1 loss to the Colorado Avalanche on Friday.

They'll be hard-pressed to find much offense against Tristan Jarry and the Pittsburgh Penguins. Jarry is fifth in the NHL in goals saved above expectation (14.33 GSAx) with an excellent .916 save percentage (Sv%). The drama in this line seems to come down to how well the Notes can slow down the Pens, and I'm optimistic.

St. Louis' backup goalie, Joel Hofer, might actually be an upgrade over the starter. He's posted 3.91 GSAx in limited starts compared to Jordan Binnington's 1.25 GSAx -- which is hurdling toward negative at a rapid speed.

numberFire's model expects just 5.78 total goals in this one at a median; it lept right out to me, as well.

Montreal Canadiens at Florida Panthers

Carter Verhaeghe 4+ Shots on Goal (-106)

In a positive matchup for shots, I'm not sure how you set Carter Verhaeghe's prop at a pick 'em.

Verhaeghe, one of the league's most notorious volume shooters, has put a team-best 3.51 shots per game on goal this season despite a 17:44 TOI average that lags behind his other top forwards. He does have a valuable role for shots, though, as the top power-play's point man.

Verhaeghe and the Florida Panthers get to fire pucks at the Montreal Canadiens today, and that's generally been a good thing. The Habs cede the fifth-most Corsi per 60 minutes (64.1) across the entire NHL. The best part? Montreal's Jake Allen (5.03 GSAx) does a good enough job at stopping them to not compromise the competitiveness of the game.

As -255 home favorites, that would be my one concern for Florida's top scorers in this one, but if the game is close enough, expect Verhaeghe to fire for three periods. He's projected for 4.08 shots today by numberFire's player projections.

Nashville Predators at Washington Capitals

Over 6.5 (+104)
Dylan Strome to Record a Point (-128)

This is an ambiguous blend for scoring, but I still generally like siding with offense in the nation's capital on Saturday.

The Washington Capitals will send their backup goaltender to the net, and that's been a huge downgrade for them this season. Charlie Lindgren (13.03 GSAx) has been one of the best goaltenders in the league, yet Darcy Kuemper (0.20 GSAx) hasn't been able to have nearly the same success and lost the starting job over a month ago.

On the other side, the Nashville Predators have a goaltending crisis, too. Burning Juuse Saros last night in Detroit, they'll either have to use him on consecutive nights or -- more likely -- turn to rookie Yaroslav Askarov for his second NHL start. Askarov stopped all six shots in relief of Saros on Wednesday, but his 2.39 GAA in the AHL this season isn't a strong indicator of NHL success. He's the team's third goaltender for a reason.

In general, I see both of these teams as unlucky offensively, too. The Preds have amassed 3.32 expected goals per 60 but have scored just 3.10. The Caps have posted just 2.26 goals per 60 (second-worst in the NHL) but have deserved 2.92, per their expected-goal rate.

If we see some offense tonight, numberFire expects Dylan Strome to be heavily involved, which is fair for the man leading the team in goals (13) and centering Alex Ovechkin in all ice conditions. Its projections have Strome at 0.84 projected points tonight, which would translate to -525 implied odds for one. Needless to say, these -128 odds he finds the scoresheet are a bargain.

Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings

Kings -1.5 (+180)
Adrian Kempe Anytime Goal (+175)

If this matchup was just decided through skaters with identical goaltending, these moneyline odds would make sense.

In those terms, the Edmonton Oilers are the best team in the NHL with a 57.5% expected-goals-for rate (xGF%). The Los Angeles Kings (56.8 xGF%) are second in that category, but they'll have home ice tonight on equal rest. However, these teams have the records they do because the goaltending couldn't be more different.

L.A. has ridden Cam Talbot's career year at age 36. Talbot is 8th of 80 qualifying goaltenders in GSAx (13.08), and Edmonton's Stuart Skinner is 71st in the same category (-4.49 GSAx). If you swapped these goaltending situations, the records would likely follow.

I like getting aggressive and leaping to the Kings' puckline for a sub-one-unit play with such a stark advantage.

If Los Angeles is scoring, we can certainly turn to their best skaters in a positive matchup, and numberFire is eyeing All-Star winger Adrian Kempe for some offense tonight. It would assign -122 odds for Kempe to score behind its projection (0.55 goals), which make these +175 odds tremendous value. Kempe has registered two goals in his last three games against Edmonton.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.