NFL Win Totals: Will the Dallas Cowboys Surpass 10 Wins Yet Again?

Riley Thomas•_riley8

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Despite consistent postseason failures, the Dallas Cowboys have reached 12 regular-season wins in three consecutive campaigns. When looking at NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook, the Cowboys have a total of 10.5 wins for the upcoming 2024 season.

Dallas has the second-shortest odds to win NFC East (+130), per FanDuel's NFL divisional odds. The Cowboys are also at -192 odds to make the NFL playoffs in the upcoming season. Most expect Dallas to make the postseason for the fourth straight year, but are they capable of reaching double-digit wins yet again?

Let's look at the Cowboys' odds for the 2024 season, and why Dallas could go over or under 10.5 wins.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.

Dallas Cowboys 2024 Win Total Odds

Cowboys Over/Under 10.5 Wins

Over: +122
Under: -150

Odds to Make the Playoffs: -192
Odds to Win the NFC East: +130
Odds to Win the NFC: +650
Super Bowl Odds: +1500 (8th-best)

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

Mike Zimmer replacing Dan Quinn at Defensive Coordinator
Jeff Zgonina replacing Aden Durde at Defensive Line Coach

Why Cowboys Could Win Over 10.5 Games (+122)

Dak Prescott Comes Off a Career-Best Season
The Offensive Line Got Younger
The Defense Could Use a Fresh Start

The Cowboys are on the constant end of criticism, especially when it comes to their failures in the playoffs. No player in Dallas hears it more than Dak Prescott, and it's with good reason considering his 2-5 playoff record.

However, we can't ignore that this is a bet pertaining to the Cowboys' regular season, and Dak just had the best regular season of his career. After throwing a career-high 15 interceptions in 2022, Prescott threw for 4,516 yards (second-most of career) and 36 touchdowns (career-best). His efficiency was better than ever, and Dak finished second in MVP voting while earning Second Team All-Pro honors.

Yes, Prescott deflated in the playoffs yet again, but he was one of the best signal callers during the 2023 regular season. The offense hasn't changed that much as his top targets will be CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and Jake Ferguson once again.

Dak's surrounding pieces go into our next point. The offensive line got younger in the offseason as Dallas drafted offensive tackle Tyler Guyton (22 years old) in the first round and interior lineman Cooper Beebe (23 years old) in the third round. There's a good chance that both players push for starting spots following the departures of Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz.

Injuries have been a big problem for this position group for years. When healthy, it performs well, but the unit was rarely ever healthy. For example, Smith hasn't played in 16 games since 2015.

When you consider the new pieces alongside Zack Martin and the emerging 23-year-old guard Tyler Smith, these changes could be for the better -- assuming that Guyton can live up to his first-round potential. The key to the offensive line improving could lay in right tackle Terence Steele's hands. There's certainly room for improvement after the unit finished with the 16th-best pass blocking win rate in 2023, per ESPN.

While the defense finished among the top 10 lowest marks in points allowed per game over the last two seasons, we can't ignore that Dallas' defense had clear holes. It consistently had a solid pass defense that could force turnovers. However, it often faltered against the run -- 16th-fewest rushing yards allowed per carry in back-to-back seasons. The unit was flat-out exposed when it faced Shanahan-style offenses, which changed the West Coast offense by introducing a zone run-blocking scheme.

This was proven time and time again as America's Team has lost three straight against the San Francisco 49ers, and the defense gave up 48 points to the Green Bay Packers in the 2023 playoffs. The Cowboys cannot afford to be completely ineffective against these styles of offense as they are increasing in popularity.

The change at defensive coordinator could be for the better with Mike Zimmer replacing Dan Quinn.

Why Cowboys Could Win Under 10.5 Games (-150)

An Offseason of Losses
CeeDee Lamb Still Needs Help
The Run Game Could Be Trouble

Crafting an argument for under 10.5 wins is a bit easier, and this is my favorite side of the two. What did Dallas do in the offseason? Your answer was probably little if any at all. It was an offseason full of losses for the Cowboys as they spent only $11.13 million in free agency. For reference, the Los Angeles Chargers spent the second-smallest amount at $39.21 million.

Jerry Jones and Co. took on an extremely conservative approach. They watched Tony Pollard, Dorance Armstrong, Tyron Smith, and Tyler Biadasz all walk, and Stephon Gilmore remains unsigned and will likely end up elsewhere.

The Cowboys already had some weaknesses, which included needs for a run-stopping defensive tackle and linebacker. They could not afford to only go backwards while making few additions. Yet this is exactly what happened. Here's who Dallas brought in: Eric Kendricks, Ezekiel Elliott, Royce Freeman, re-signed Rico Dowdle, and re-signed Jourdan Lewis.

Bringing in Kendricks was a solid move due to the one-year, $3 million price tag. He had a 72.3 Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade for the 2023 season. There's not much else to say outside of this addition.

As previously mentioned, the Boys did a good job of addressing offensive line in the 2024 NFL Draft. They completely overlooked other needs throughout the offseason, though.

CeeDee Lamb still has very little help as Dallas opted to not bring in a notable wideout. He accounted for a team-high 1,749 receiving yards last season while Jake Ferguson (761 yards) and Brandin Cooks (657 yards) had the next-best marks.

Running back was another skill position that the Cowboys ignored. The team totaled 4.1 yards per carry last season (tied for 16th-highest mark). Pollard walked and the solution was to roll out a group with Elliott, Dowdle, and Deuce Vaughn. Dallas must find a veteran in free agency; the opportunity could come with quality backs consistently being cut in recent years.

The defense also has run game concerns. Linebacker is a weak position, even with the addition of Kendricks. The unit is still missing a high quality nose tackle. Jonathan Hankins departed in free agency, and Mazi Smith rarely contributed during his rookie season in 2023. Opposing teams will likely continue to find success with a run game attacking the middle of this defense.

Simply put, this roster only got worse during the offseason. The run game remains a big concern on both sides of the ball. For the Cowboys to overachieve, it would likely take some surprising contributions from rookies or unexpected vets. For now, I'm backing under 10.5 wins.

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