2 Dark Horse Picks to Win the 2025 US Open

While tennis majors are typically dominated by a handful of names, the door could be open for someone new to break through at this year's US Open.

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have combined to win the last seven majors and eight of the last nine. Similar to the peak Big Three/Four era, everyone else in the field will be up against it to break through.

The women's side is a little more wide open, but Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka are deserving co-favorites. Swiatek won the 2021 US Open and just took home her first Wimbledon championship. Sabalenka has won three of the last five hard court majors and is the defending US Open champ.

With all this in mind, which men and women could make surprise runs to a US Open title this year?

You can also check out our 2025 US Open men's bracket and women's bracket, both available as free printable downloads at FanDuel Research.

Dark Horses Who Could Win the 2025 US Open

Ben Shelton to Win (+2500)

Ben Shelton is in Alcaraz's quarter, so he doesn't have the easiest path to the final, but let's face it, anyone hoping to be a surprise US Open champion likely has to go through both Alcaraz and Sinner anyway. That being said, Alcaraz did lose in the second round of the 2024 US Open, so you never know when the tennis gods could lend a helping hand.

Shelton was a semifinalist at the 2023 US Open, and he's performed well at majors this season, reaching the semis of the Australian Open and quarterfinals at Wimbledon. Earlier this month, Shelton won the Canadian Open, his first Masters 1000 title, which might be most encouraging sign for his form entering this tournament. He's also made deep runs at Cincinnati and Washington this summer, giving him a sparkling 12-2 record since Wimbledon.

The American has typically been at his best on hard courts in his career, and he's been particularly strong in 2025, logging a 73.3% win rate on the surface. Per Tennis Abstract, Shelton is sixth in hard court Elo rating entering the US Open.

Shelton has gone 1-6 versus Sinner and 0-3 versus Alcaraz, so he'll need to drastically change the narrative if he wants to win his first major title. Even so, it's not like many others have found much success against those two, and Shelton is a player who can thrive off the home-court advantage he'll have in front of the American crowd. If his win in Canada is a sign he can take the next step, a run to the final isn't out of the question.

Victoria Mboko to Win (+2700)

On the women's side, 18-year-old Victoria Mboko was this year's surprise Canadian Open champion. She achieved that with wins over Sofia Kenin, Coco Gauff, Elena Rybakina, and Naomi Osaka -- all of whom have won Grand Slams.

This breakthrough came despite Mboko beginning the year playing solely in low-level events, though perhaps there were some signs of this coming. While playing in ITF tournaments from January through March, Mboko obliterated the competition, going 25-1 and winning five titles across six events. She later advanced through qualifying at both the French Open and Wimbledon -- the latter as a lucky loser -- giving her valuable experience playing in majors, as well.

While it might seem questionable to back a player with barely any experience at the highest level, we've seen plenty of surprise women's champions over the years. One of the most notable recent examples was when Emma Raducanu won the 2021 US Open as a qualifier at just 18 years old.

Due to Mboko's Canadian Open title, she flew up the rankings, so not only will she avoid going through qualifying, but she's even a seeded player (22). While she gets a tricky opponent in the first round versus Barbora Krejcikova, a two-time major winner, Krejcikova has just an 8-6 record in 2025 after starting the season late due to injury.

Past Krejcikova, Americans Jessica Pegula and Emma Navarro are potential hurdles, although neither one performed well during the North American hard court swing. Mirra Andreeva could be the biggest threat on paper, but she's never advanced past the second round of the US Open.

Most importantly, Mboko is in a quarter without Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka. The earliest she could face Sabalenka is in the semifinals, and Swiatek wouldn't be a factor until the final.

It remains to be seen whether Mboko can carry her momentum into a deep run at a major, and given her age and experience, it's always possible the moment becomes too big. But with a pretty favorable draw and Mboko's best career result to this point fresh in her mind, there's a very real chance she can keep this Cinderella story going over the next two weeks.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.