NFL Wild Card Weekend Best Bets and Predictions for Packers at Eagles
Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.
You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.
Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for the Wild Card Weekend matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles.
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
Packers at Eagles Betting Picks
Packers' Moneyline (+198)
Moneyline
If I'm betting against the Eagles, I want to make sure I'm getting compensated for the risk that I'm taking on. Thus, the moneyline for the Packers is more attractive to me than getting 4.5 points against the spread.
My model's NFL spread and total prediction has the Eagles favored by 2.9 points here, below where the market has them. That puts the Packers' win odds at 39.0%, above their implied odds of 33.6% in the current market. Even if the Eagles are the winner more than 60% of the time, the Packers still seem undervalued.
This is largely due to how sneaky good the Packers' offense has been. They finished the regular season as numberFire's fifth-ranked schedule-adjusted passing offense. They were especially efficient on early downs, ranking fourth in early-down Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per play after adjusting for schedule.
It's a tough test here against an Eagles defense that has been lights out down the stretch. That seems fully baked into the market, though, allowing me to back the Packers, specifically in this market, which grants me a larger payoff for betting against an elite team.
Total Over 45.5 (-115)
Total Match Points
Now that we've seen Jordan Love throwing in practice during the week, I'm more willing to dabble in this market than I was earlier on.
Love's elbow injury was a legitimate concern. He said after Sunday's game he had numbness in his hand, forcing his exit. Obviously, that's less than ideal.
Clearly, things have trended positively as Love logged a full practice during Thursday's session. A healthy Love -- as discussed earlier -- has been efficient this year, even if we have to downgrade the offense without Christian Watson.
Despite being run-heavy, these offenses operate at a faster pace than you'd expect. They finished the regular season ranked 22nd and 23rd in adjusted pace, according to FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula. It's at least fast enough where we don't need to give the game a massive scoring expectation downgrade.
Because these two offenses are both efficient when they've got their starting quarterbacks, my model has this total up at 48.0. There's a big enough gap between that and the market for me to ride with the over.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.