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NFL Week 6 Spread and Total Predictions for Every Game
In the NFL, you're never lacking in prediction models to try to give you an idea of what to expect in a given week, whether those models are for betting or other purposes.
Below, we're going to run through what my spread and total models say about Week 6's NFL games.
As a disclaimer, this is my own, personal betting model. I'll lay out which bets I'm willing to make based on it compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, but as always, you'll have to decide for yourself whether there's enough value for you to the plunge, as well.
The spread model is largely based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which is their version of EPA. The totals model factors in things such as pace and wind speed, as well. Numbers are manually edited to reflect the players who are expected to play in a given game.
Without further ado, here's what I've got for this upcoming slate of games.
NFL Week 6 Predictions
Eagles at Giants Prediction
Spread Prediction: Eagles -7.8
Total Prediction: 45.2
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Projecting Saquon Barkley as in and Landon Dickerson as out. Think the New York Giants' offensive line has looked good enough with Andrew Thomas for me to agree with the value the model is showing in the over.
Broncos vs. Jets Prediction
Spread Prediction: Broncos -6.3
Total Prediction: 44.5
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Browns at Steelers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Steelers -5.6
Total Prediction: 41.3
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Didn't boost the Cleveland Browns despite what I think was a decent showing in Dillon Gabriel's debut, so this is still with low expectations for their offense. The Pittsburgh Steelers' offense has looked good enough where I think they can be competent even without Calvin Austin III.
Chargers at Dolphins Prediction
Spread Prediction: Chargers -1.7
Total Prediction: 42.0
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: The Los Angeles Chargers' injuries on offense seem to be making a real impact, so I don't mind taking the points with the Miami Dolphins.
Patriots at Saints Prediction
Spread Prediction: Patriots -1.0
Total Prediction: 44.5
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Feels a bit early to make the New England Patriots 3.5-point road favorites, even against a bad-ish team. I'm willing to take the points with the New Orleans Saints.
Seahawks at Jaguars Prediction
Spread Prediction: Seahawks -1.5
Total Prediction: 43.6
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: I've been below market on the Seattle Seahawks so far, and the offense has looked great, so I'm excited to buy into them via the moneyline here.
Cardinals at Colts Prediction
Spread Prediction: Colts -4.2
Total Prediction: 48.6
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: I'm using Kyler Murray's foot injury as an excuse to ignore the value the model is showing in the Arizona Cardinals here. Pass for me.
Rams at Ravens Prediction
Spread Prediction: Rams -7.7
Total Prediction: 45.3
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Cowboys at Panthers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Cowboys -2.0
Total Prediction: 46.1
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Showing value in the Carolina Panthers and the under, but Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP level, so I prefer to pass on both.
Titans at Raiders Prediction
Spread Prediction: Raiders -4.7
Total Prediction: 40.7
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Projecting Brock Bowers as out for now.
49ers at Buccaneers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Buccaneers -3.0
Total Prediction: 47.6
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Projecting Mac Jones as the starter for the San Francisco 49ers.
Bengals at Packers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Packers -16.2
Total Prediction: 48.5
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Willing to take the value in the over, given the Green Bay Packers' improved offensive line health and the Cincinnati Bengals' poor defense.
Lions at Chiefs Prediction
Spread Prediction: Lions -0.9
Total Prediction: 50.4
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: This is more an endorsement of the Detroit Lions than an indictment of the Kansas City Chiefs. The Lions have passed key tests since Week 1, so I do like them at plus money to win.
Bills at Falcons Prediction
Spread Prediction: Bills -4.2
Total Prediction: 51.2
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Bears at Commanders Prediction
Spread Prediction: Commanders -4.8
Total Prediction: 49.6
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
