NFL Week 4 Expert Betting Picks and Predictions

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop. They'll share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they're on that bet.

All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Note: Betting lines and numberFire's player projections may change after this article is published.

NFL Expert Betting Picks for Week 4

Jim Sannes, Digital Media Managing Editor

Side: Houston Texans +3 (-120)

The Texans +3 was -104 earlier in the week, and the movement out to -120 is significant. I still think there's value here, though. My model makes this game effectively a toss-up with the Texans favored by 0.14 points. Sure, they'll be facing TJ Watt with likely a third-string tackle, but this line has been beat up all year, and CJ Stroud has still managed impressive efficiency marks. They also may get Jalen Pitre back after he returned to practice on Monday. It's a risky spot, given Pittsburgh's defense, but I think the Texans have earned more respect than the market is giving them.

Total: New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs Over 41.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Alvin Kamara Anytime Touchdown (+110)

Austin Swaim, Senior Editor

Side: Atlanta Falcons +3 (-110)

numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics have Atlanta as the 13th-best overall group, and Jacksonville lags behind in 22nd. This game is in London, so it's a proverbial road game for the Falcons, but getting the key number of three with the better team is hard to pass up. Look for the efficiency of Desmond Ridder to be significantly improved from last week against numberFire's ninth-worst pass D.

Total: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns Under 39.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Sam Howell Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-114)

Austan Kas, Senior Editor

Side: New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-110)

Total: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns Under 39.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Robert Woods Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

The Steelers' pass defense has struggled, giving up the fifth-most receiving yards to wideouts. Usually, Pittsburgh's excellent pass rush -- which owns the third-best pressure rate (30.3%) -- forces opponents to get the ball out quickly. That should play right into the hands of Robert Woods, who spends a lot of time running underneath routes from the slot and has run a route on 89.3% of Houston's drop backs.

Tom Vecchio, Editor

Side: Baltimore Ravens +2.5 (-104)

Total: Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers Over 46.5 (-110)

Player Prop: C.J. Stroud Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Houston comes in with a 63.77% pass-play percentage, which is the seventh-highest in the league. They have no reservations about letting Stroud sling the ball, and that has led to 906 passing yards and 121 attempts through three games, both of which are in the top five of the NFL. That's good for 302.0 passing yards and 40.3 attempts per game.

Kenyatta Storin, Editor

Side: Dallas Cowboys -6.5 (-105)

The Patriots' defense dominated an inept Jets offense in Week 3, yet won by just five points due to their own woes on offense. Against a far more complete team like Dallas, I'm not sure how they can keep pace. Despite their upset loss to the Cardinals, the Cowboys are still fifth in our power rankings, whereas both the Pats and Jets are in the bottom half. We should feel pretty confident in Dallas winning by a touchdown or more at home.

Total: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns Under 39.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Trevor Lawrence Over 234.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Aidan Cotter, Writer

Side: Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 (-110)

Total: Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars Over 43.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Anthony Richardson Anytime TD (+110)

I have a feeling this is going to be the last time (maybe ever) we see plus odds for Anthony Richardson to score, so may as well enjoy it while we can. AR5 ran for a score in their season opener and then had two touchdowns in a little more than a quarter of action in Week 2 before departing with a concussion. He missed last week (which explains the plus odds) but was a full-go in practice and is cleared for Sunday's game. Arguably the most athletic quarterback in the league, Richardson has six red zone rushing attempts in five quarters of professional football. That usage is more than enough for me to back him to score his fourth TD of the year against the Rams.

Zack Bussiere, Writer

Side: New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-110)

Total: New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys Under 43.5 (-112)

Player Prop: Keenan Allen Anytime Touchdown (+105)

Coming off his 18-catch performance in Week 3, Allen will face a Raiders pass defense ranked seventh-worst in numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. The Chargers' pass offense ranks second-best, per numberFire, and Allen should be the focal point of their passing game once again in Week 4. Josh Palmer and rookie Quentin Johnston could grow into the role opened up by Mike Williams' season-ending knee injury, but in the short term, Allen should continue to see double-digit targets on a weekly basis.

Gabriel Santiago, Writer

Side: Jacksonville Jaguars ML (-168)

Total: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills Under 53.5 (-108)

This will likely be the best NFL action of the weekend and possibly the entire regular season. As AFC North rivals, the Buffalo Bills have defeated the Miami Dolphins in three of the past four meetings. In that span, the rivals have averaged 43.25 combined points per game. Undeniably, Miami's offense is flying high behind Tua Tagovailoa's 10.1 yards per passing attempt right now (highest among NFL starters), but things tend to slow down in divisional tilts. For me, a 53.5 total is ambitious, so I like the longer price of -108 on the under. Expect Buffalo's experienced secondary to play a major role at Orchard Park.

Player Prop: Deebo Samuel Anytime Touchdown (+120)

Annie Nader, Writer

Side: Dallas Cowboys -6.5 (-105)

Total: New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs Over 41.5 (-105)

Player Prop: James Cook Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

James Cook has averaged a towering 89 rushing yards per game through Week 3, and this matchup against the Miami Dolphins should prove advantageous for Buffalo rushers. Despite the Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs of it all, Cook should see more than enough opportunities on Sunday. Miami’s defense hates the passing game and, in turn, allows opposing teams to run the ball at a super high rate. They've allowed a whopping average of 130.0 rushing yards per game (25th in the NFL), and with Cook dominating the carries for Buffalo, I expect him to clear this bar and then some.

Nick Vazquez, Writer

Side: Philadelphia Eagles -8.5 (-110)

It's not always the best move to lay big points in the NFL, but this is a clear mismatch between the Eagles' defensive line and the Commanders' offensive line. Washington is on pace to allow the most sacks in a season, while the Eagles are second in pressure rate. With D'Andre Swift looking rejuvenated in Philly, the Eagles should be able to win this one by double digits.

Total: Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts Under 45.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Josh Palmer Over 3.5 catches (-130)

Riley Thomas, Writer

Side: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-106)

The Bengals finally got in the win column in Week 3. However, the run defense still looked vulnerable, allowing 5.5 yards per carry against the Rams, who have numberFire’s seventh-worst run offense. Cincinnati ranks seventh-to-last in our run defense rankings. Look for a good showing for the Titans’ Derrick Henry.

Total: New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys Under 43.5 (-112)

Player Prop: Derrick Henry Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Scott Edwards, Writer

Side: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-106)

Total: Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans Over 41.5 (-115)

Player Prop: Ja'Marr Chase Anytime Touchdown (+120)

The Titans have watched No. 1 receivers absolutely roast them in the first three weeks of the season. Chris Olave went for 8 receptions and 112 yards, Keenan Allen went for 8 receptions, 111 yards, and 2 touchdowns, and Amari Cooper went for 7 receptions, 116 yards, and 1 touchdown. After all that, they'll now play the best one yet in Ja'Marr Chase. The Bengals wideout had a slow start to the season before going off in Week 3 with 12 receptions and 141 yards through the air. He's still looking for that first touchdown -- this feels like the time he'll get in for six.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.