NFL Week 18 Expert Betting Picks and Predictions

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop. They'll share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they're on that bet.

All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Note: Betting lines and numberFire's player projections may change after this article is published.

NFL Expert Picks for Week 18

Jim Sannes, Digital Media Managing Editor

Side: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 (-115)

Total: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans Under 47.5 (-115)

I understand why this total is high. The Colts operate at a lightning pace, and C.J. Stroud rules. I just can't get my model anywhere close to this number. I've got it under 44, personally, thanks to a hyper-tight spread and moreso middling than elite projected offensive efficiency. The Colts have played in high-chaos games all year, and the Texans' defense is far from elite, so it's easy to envision a scenario where this goes over. My model just views the median expectation as being a good bit below this, and we get a win on a key number of 47. Hopefully, this game can live up to the hype without featuring a bunch of points.

Player Prop: Josh Allen Over 36.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Austin Swaim, Senior Editor

Side: Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 (-108)

This game is a perfect case study of -- at the very least -- doing your homework as a bettor this weekend. 80% of the spread tickets and 70% of the spread handle at FanDuel Sportsbook are on the Chiefs, but these aren't close to your normal Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes and other key K.C. starters projected to rest in Los Angeles this weekend. The Chargers mailed it in a while ago, but at least their backups -- like Easton Stick -- have been in auditioning mode after their coach was let go in December and are developing a rapport. I'll lay the points with a side that's played one-score games with Buffalo and Denver in recent weeks -- and arguably has more motivation.

Total: New York Jets at New England Patriots Under 30.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Rachaad White Anytime TD (-130)

Austan Kas, Senior Editor

Side: Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 (-110)

The Eagles aren't as good as we thought they'd be -- just 13th overall by numberFire's power rankings -- but they're a lot better than the Giants, who numberFire slots in next to last. While Big Blue ended up losing by only eight points in Philly earlier this year, the Eagles out-gained the Giants by 173 yards in that one. Motivation should be no issue for the Eagles, as they still have an outside shot at the NFC East crown and also desperately need to right the ship heading into the playoffs. I think Philly gets right on Sunday.

Total: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints Under 42.5 (-118)

Player Prop: Jordan Love Over 8.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Tom Vecchio, Editor

Side: Green Bay Packers -3 (-105)

Total: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders Under 47.5 (-118)

Player Prop: Dalton Schultz Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Over the last three weeks, Schultz is tied for the team lead with a 17.7% target share while playing on a team-high 80.6% of the snaps. With Tank Dell and now Noah Brown out of the lineup for the Texans, Schultz has emerged as a consistent option in their passing game. The Colts have allowed the 10th-most (858) receiving yards to tight end this season, putting Schultz in a good matchup to pile up the yards.

Kenyatta Storin, Editor

Side: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 (-115)

Tampa Bay needs a victory to make the playoffs, so what better time to face the worst team in the NFL? They'll take on a Panthers team that's 32nd in our power rankings, a far cry from the Bucs' 12th ranking. Baker Mayfield is dealing with a rib injury, but he returned to practice on Thursday, and it's hard to see him missing a must-win game. Although backing a road favorite can be tricky, this spread is well short of a touchdown, and numberFire projects Tampa to win by just under seven points, giving us a nice cushion here.

Total: Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans Under 41.5 (-115)

Player Prop: Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (+110)

Aidan Cotter, Writer

Side: Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 (-110)

Total: New York Jets at New England Patriots Under 30.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Alec Pierce Longest Reception Over 15.5 (-114)

With the Colts' playoff hopes on the line, look for them to exploit a vulnerable Houston secondary down the field. Per NextGenStats, the Texans have given up the second-highest aDOT (12.7) to the wide receivers and the sixth-most deep targets overall. Since their Week 11 bye, Pierce has seen nine targets of at least 20 yards downfield -- 13th in the NFL. He's surpassed this 15.5-yard mark in nine of 16 games overall, including last week when he housed a 58-yarder.

Zack Bussiere, Writer

Side: Green Bay Packers -3 (-105)

The Bears have a chance to eliminate their division rivals from the playoffs with a victory, but I like the Packers in this one. numberFire's models have a decent gap between these two sides, the Packers are ranked 10th and Chicago is ranked 20th. The Packers' strength is their passing game, which ranks fifth, per numberFire. That matches up well with a Bears' defense that is better against the run, ranked third, than the pass, ranked 17th. On the road with a trip to the playoffs in their grasp, I like Green Bay to cover in this one.

Total: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints Under 42.5 (-118)

Player Prop: Josh Allen Anytime TD (-120)

Gabriel Santiago, Writer

Side: Detroit Lions -3 (-120)

Total: Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens Under 34.5 (-106)

In recent renditions of this rivalry, we are not used to seeing both sides score 20 or more points. Naturally, the Ravens and Steelers have already played once prior this year. In October, Pittsburgh grounded the Flock in Steel City, winning at home 17-10. Being that I'm on under 34.5 for this Saturday's meeting in Baltimore, a result like Week 5 is ideal. Still, the past six Steelers-Ravens games have yielded an average total of 31.2 PPG. Of course, it is a bid that is known as the hardest hitting of the season, as both franchises pride themselves on defense. From there, the forecast in B-More at "The Bank" on Saturday brings an 85% chance of showers along with temperatures in the upper 30 degrees -- not exactly advantageous scoring weather for quarterbacks Mason Rudolph and Tyler Huntley.

Player Prop: Bijan Robinson Anytime TD (+100)

Annie Nader, Writer

Side: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 (-115)

Total: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals Under 47.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Aaron Jones Anytime TD (+100)

The Packers are averaging 27.3 points across their last six games and come into Sunday’s game with a 23.5 implied team total. Green Bay should reach the end zone a few times against the Bears, and I’m happy to get Aaron Jones at even money to do just that. Jones touts a team-leading 50.8% red zone rush share, which would only skyrocket should AJ Dillon (thumb/neck) fail to find his way off the injury report. Jones also comes in with a 17.3% red zone target share (third-highest on the team), and the Bears have surrendered the second-most receiving touchdowns (seven) to running backs this season.

Nick Vazquez, Writer

Side: Detroit Lions -3 (-120)

Total: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans Under 47.5. (-115)

Player Prop: Josh Allen Anytime TD (-120)

With the season on the line, the Bills will need to go all out for the win. They started letting Josh Allen run more when Ken Dorsey was replaced by Joe Brady at offensive coordinator. He now has rushing TDs in his last five games, totaling eight in that stretch. He had one against the Dolphins in their first matchup this season, and Miami has allowed five rushing touchdowns to QBs total. With the way things are going for Allen and the Bills, I like laying the -120 for him to find the end zone again this week

Riley Thomas, Writer

Side: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 (-115)

Total: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders Under 47.5 (-118)

Player Prop: Michael Pittman Jr. Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

The Texans and Colts face off in a critical AFC South clash on Saturday night. Houston will clinch the division with a win while Indianapolis needs a win and a Jaguars tie or loss. In the previous head-to-head matchup, the Colts’ Michael Pittman Jr. had a busy day with 12 targets and 8 receptions. After averaging 85.8 receiving yards over his last six games, Pittman could be poised for over 75.5 receiving yards. The Texans have numberFire’s 10th-worst schedule-adjusted pass defense.

Skyler Carlin, Writer

Side: Detroit Lions -3 (-120)

Total: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints Under 42.5 (-118)

Player Prop: Khalil Herbert Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Time and time again, it has been shown that you can run the ball effectively against the Packers. The Packers boast the seventh-worst schedule-adjusted run defense and have surrendered the 11th-most rushing yards over expected (RYOE). While the Bears aren't vying for a playoff spot, they've transitioned back to having Khalil Herbert as their featured back. In the last two weeks, Herbert has averaged 19 carries for 118 yards on the ground. Roschon Johnson has gotten more involved in the offense in recent weeks, but Herbert has a 39.5% rushing success rate in the last two games compared to Johnson's 31.3%. Given his recent increased volume, Herbert is primed for another productive performance on Sunday versus the Packers.

Scott Edwards, Writer

Side: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 (-115)

Total: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Under 42.5 (-118)

Player Prop: Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-148)

Jordan Love has been on a tear over his last two games and for the majority of the second half of the 2023 season -- setting the Packers up for a potential playoff spot one year removed from Aaron Rodgers' time. The reason I'm taking the over confidently on his passing touchdowns is that he's thrown for two or more in seven of his last eight games. The Bears have proven to be a tough matchup for opposing quarterbacks, but Love stormed onto the scene in Week 1 against them with three scores through the air. If the Packers want to make the playoffs, Love is going to have to come through, which I expect him to on Sunday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.