NFL Survivor Picks for Week 1: Cincinnati Begins the Year With a Friendly Home Matchup

NFL survivor pools are an interesting way to have some fun during the season, and this weekly article is here to help you stay alive deep into the season.

Based on numberFire's NFL survivor matrix, here are some of the best NFL survivor picks for Week 1.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 1

Best Picks

Cincinnati Bengals

If your plan of attack is to take the largest available moneyline favorite using the NFL odds at FanDuel every week, you're probably not going to win a survivor pool. Popular upsets happen, and you'll be turning to underdogs before long. However, in the opening week, you could make an argument that this is the very best time to play it a bit "safe".

We know very little about these teams, but the Cincinnati Bengals are easily the "safest" pick on the board. Their 81.8% implied chance to win at home against the New England Patriots, per FanDuel, dwarfs the next-best team (73.0%) in Week 1.

numberFire's schedule-adjusted power rankings rate the Bengals as the fifth-best team in the NFL, and they'll battle the rankings' second-worst club. Higher on the new-look Carolina Panthers, I'd anecdotally rank New England as the worst team in the league with an unsettled quarterback spot behind Pro Football Focus (PFF)'s worst offensive line.

Cincy's 10.5-win total at FanDuel does imply it'd be nice to keep them in our back pocket for later, but it's hard to pass on a good team against a projected bottom-feeder. Even if it's without Ja'Marr Chase due to a contract issue, I'm locking the Stripes this week in my main pool.

Seattle Seahawks

You can see how quickly we get shaky behind Cincinnati. The Seattle Seahawks are numberFire's 24th-ranked team, but many are much higher on the new coaching staff in the Emerald City.

This is also a brutal spot for the 27th-ranked Denver Broncos to start rookie quarterback Bo Nix in such a hostile environment right out of the gate. Seattle is numberFire's third-worst ranked defense coming into the season, but head coach Mike Macdonald's Baltimore Ravens were the second-best D in the ranks a season ago. This season's outcome is undoubtedly somewhere in the middle.

Nix went 15-for-21 with 131 yards and a tuddy in limited preseason action, showing that Sean Payton might finally have the decisive, strong-armed quarterback he's been lacking since prime Drew Brees. If the rook is in store for a surprise season, Seattle could find themselves on the ropes quickly here.

However, there's also a chance new Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb lifts up the 12s just as he did last year's Washington Huskies, torching a Broncos defense with Pro Football Focus (PFF)'s 31st-ranked defensive line, 28th-ranked linebacker corps, and 16th-ranked secondary unit.

While expecting Seattle to win, I'm not nearly confident enough to pivot off what should be an extremely chalk Bengals square.

Chicago Bears

Backing a rookie quarterback in Week 1 of a survivor pool normally sounds like a horrific idea, but nothing about Caleb Williams' ascent as a prospect was normal.

Williams showed why the Chicago Bears took him first overall in the preseason, posting a 10-for-20 outing with 170 passing yards and a pair of scores. The highlights were significantly better than that stat line would imply, as well.

As a result, Chicago is getting plenty of respect to be 65.5% implied by FanDuel to win their home opener against the rebuilding Tennessee Titans. Da Bears are ranked 16th in nF's schedule-adjusted ratings to the Titans' 28th place.

Personally, I'd look to Chicago over Seattle because of the floor their defense provides. Defensive-minded head coach Matt Eberflus returns with a squad that allowed just 17.9 points per game in nine contests with Montez Sweat in the fold. If Williams adds any sort of punch on offense, they'll compete with just about any team in the NFL.

However, there's so much new in Tennessee that you'd hate to be on the wrong end of something special brewed up by new coach Brian Callahan and bounced from your pool right away.

Digging Deeper

Do you want -- or need -- to use other squads than the teams listed above? Here are some other options.

Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons would be my second-best overall choice for this week if not looking ahead.

Atlanta is just 60.9% implied to win at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers as both teams made quarterback "upgrades" in the offseason, but Atlanta's was significantly larger. Kirk Cousins averaged +0.03 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) to Russell Wilson's -0.13 last season, per NFL's NextGenStats.

While Pittsburgh has developed a reputation as a tough out with T.J. Watt in the fold and healthy, Atlanta was numberFire's 10th-best overall defense a year ago and added Matt Judon and Justin Simmons as recent Pro Bowlers to the mix. This is a team I'm very high on for the rest of the season on both sides of the ball as Cousins can better elevate three different top-eight picks at the Falcons' skill positions.

However, that's the exact reason I'd prefer not to take them this week. In addition to this matchup with the "somehow within a score" Steelers, Atlanta will have six divisional matchups looming with the Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- none slotted better than 18th in numberFire's ranks.

We could find a sublime spot for them down the road, and the long-term prognosis of this team is incredibly sound with Michael Penix Jr. available as one of the league's best backup QBs already.

Los Angeles Chargers

A team that could do their best Steelers impression this season is the Las Vegas Raiders, who could be a somewhat popular target for those fading the chalk this week.

Las Vegas has the league's worst quarterback situation, but just about everything else on the team is really sound. Remember, they were the last team to beat the Kansas City Chiefs last year despite not completing a single pass in the second half.

That could be the norm for a defense that was borderline elite after Antonio Pierce took over last season, and they added stud tackle Christian Wilkins to it. Jim Harbaugh is a proven winner, but ambiguity plagues his new Los Angeles Chargers even more than the Raiders.

Time will tell how quickly he can turn around nF's sixth-worst overall defense a year ago. Plus, Harbaugh had FBS' 3rd-slowest seconds per play and 18th-highest rush rate last season with the Michigan Wolverines, so this is going to be a slow-paced, ugly affair that might be pretty tight.

L.A. and the Buffalo Bills, who are 71.8% implied to beat the Arizona Cardinals, are the two squares that should carry some popularity I will avoid. Even at home, I could see both losing outright against underrated squads building off strong conclusions to 2023.

Gear up for NFL season! Customers who bet $5 will get a free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube & YouTube TV! This promo expires September 22nd. See here for full terms and conditions.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your