NFL Preseason Week 1 Best Bets for Friday's Games

One of the keys to betting preseason NFL is knowing how coaches will handle their respective squads in meaningless games.

Some want to save the studs for the regular season. Others want those guys to get live reps, pushing harder and, thus, inflating the odds they get a win.

Across Friday's three-game preseason slate, we know what to expect.

Not only do we have the two longest-tenured NFL head coaches -- Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh -- but Raheem Morris is the only coach in the first year with his current team. Thus, we have at least some sample to draw from for nearly everybody.

Which bets stand out in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL preseason Week 1 betting odds once we consider that? Here are my favorite values.

Friday's Best NFL Preseason Week 1 Bets

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Over 37.5 (-110)

We've got a nice convergence of players starting and sitting that should lend itself to some points as the Houston Texans take on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The big thing is that -- after sitting out of last week's Hall of Fame Game -- C.J. Stroud will play, according to head coach Demeco Ryans. Stroud played two drives in his first preseason action last year, and it's reasonable to expect something along those lines here.

When he's out there, he won't be facing some of the Steelers' best defensive studs. Tomlin has said that T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and others will sit, something Stroud and company will happily accept.

The Steelers should be able to put up some points of their own, too. We won't see Russell Wilson, but Justin Fields will get "a couple of series" with the first-team offense. Given Fields is trying to give Wilson a run for the starting gig, we should expect him to unleash his full skillset, including his lethal legs.

In nine preseason games for Tomlin since the league shifted to just three games per year, Steelers games have featured a median total of 42 points, and they've topped 40 in all three Week 1 games. The Texans' Hall of Fame Game got to 38 points despite never reaching the fourth quarter. I think we can have some faith in the over as a result.

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins

Under 38.5 Points (-115)

Because this is Morris' first game with the Atlanta Falcons, he'll likely want to impress. I just don't know if that's enough to justify a total of 38.5.

Neither starting quarterback will suit up for this one. Kirk Cousins may sit out the entire preseason, and Mike McDaniel said he intends to once again rest Tua Tagovailoa for the preseason opener. The Miami Dolphins put up 26 points in Week 1 back in 2022 without Tagovailoa, but they followed that up with a 19-3 loss last year.

On the Falcons' side of things, they'll have Michael Penix in place of Cousins, and Taylor Heinicke after him is more than competent. But the pass-catching depth once Drake London and Kyle Pitts are out is abysmal, something the Dolphins will deal with on the other side if Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle sit.

Having Penix makes it understandable why this total is where it is. I just think the lack of pass-catching depth on both sides should make us give most consideration to the under.

Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens

Ravens' Moneyline (+100)

The Baltimore Ravens' 24-game preseason win streak came to an end last year, so this isn't some "herp derp just bet the Ravens regardless" thing.

It's Harbaugh's broader track record combined with how Philadelphia Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni has played things.

Sirianni has been head coach for nine preseason games. The Eagles' record in those is 1-6-2 with the one win being a one-point squeaker in 2022. Their scoring differential is -98 across that nine-game sample.

That could change this year, now that Sirianni is on the hot seat after a 2023 collapse that saw a reported falling out between him and quarterback Jalen Hurts. The team hasn't announced plans for the starters yet, but Hurts sat out the entire preseason last year.

The Ravens' quarterback room is thin as Lamar Jackson hasn't played recently during the preseason, and the arms behind Josh Johnson are rookies Devin Leary and Emory Jones. Thus, I understand why the market is where it is. It's just hard to fully embrace the market's stance given how much data we have on how these coaches handle the preseason.

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Which bets stand out to you for the first full week of games? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL preseason Week 1 betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.