NFL Preseason Picks: 4 NFL Best Bets & Predictions For Preseason Today Friday 8/14/26

NFL Betting Picks in Summary

• Falcons +3.5
• Jets -5.5
• Bucs-Jets Under 35.5
• Dolphins-Commanders Under 36.5

Friday brings a three-game slate to close out the first week of the 2026 preseason. Between a rebuilding Miami team, a banged-up Tampa Bay quarterback room, and a genuinely interesting veteran-vs-rookie storyline in Atlanta, there's more real signal here than the typical exhibition slate usually offers.

All NFL preseason odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds and may change after this article is published.

NFL Predictions and Picks for Preseason Week 1

Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons (Fri, 7 p.m. ET)

Falcons +3.5 (-110)

Tua Tagovailoa gets the start for Atlanta with Michael Penix Jr. still working back from ACL surgery, and Tua's veteran experience is a real edge in a game where Denver's own starters figure to see similarly limited snaps. A veteran arm getting the ball out on time against early-game vanilla defensive looks is a reasonable bet to keep this competitive.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets (Fri, 7 p.m. ET)

Jets -5.5 (-120)

Baker Mayfield is confirmed out for Tampa Bay, and backup Jake Browning is now genuinely in doubt after injuring his back at Tuesday's joint practice, which would push rookie Jalon Daniels into significant early snaps. New York, meanwhile, is expected to play a good chunk of its starters. That's a real talent and experience gap for a preseason opener.

Bucs-Jets Under 35.5 (-110)

Tampa Bay's quarterback situation is genuinely unsettled beyond Mayfield, and a rookie thrust into extended snaps for the first time tends to produce exactly the kind of stalled drives and empty possessions that keep a total below the number.

Miami Dolphins at Washington Commanders (Fri, 7 p.m. ET)

Dolphins-Commanders Under 36.5 (-115)

Worth noting directly: the market actually favors Miami here (-3.5, -166 on the moneyline), which cuts against reports of a rough joint-practice week for the Dolphins' new-look offense. Rather than pick a side that doesn't fully reconcile with that tension, the total looks like the more defensible angle — both teams are breaking in real question marks at quarterback, which tends to produce exactly the kind of stalled, mistake-prone football that keeps a preseason total under the number.