NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting: The Case for C.J. Stroud in 2023

The Houston Texans have had a rough few seasons. They have not won more than four games in a single season since 2019, and due to some dubious trades made by former head coach and general manager Bill O’Brien, the team has had little to show for their struggles; in the four drafts between 2018 and 2021, the team made just one first-round pick.

The team has started to recover from O’Brien’s missteps over the last two drafts and -- hopefully, for their sake -- drafted their quarterback of the future this year. Using the second overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Texans selected former Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud.

Stroud was one of the most prolific passers in college football over the last two seasons and finished fourth and third, respectively, in Heisman Trophy voting in 2021 and 2022. In just two seasons as a starter, he threw for the second-most total passing yards in Ohio State's history. With his outstanding resume, it was little surprise that he was drafted so highly last week.

According to the NFL prop bet market on the FanDuel Sportsbook, Stroud has the third-strongest odds of winning the AP’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award in 2023 at +700.

Can Stroud Contend for the Award on a Bad Team?

If Stroud were to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, what would his rookie season have to look like?

Stroud will likely need to start close to the full season for the Texans to be in consideration for the award. Of the six quarterbacks to win the award since 2010, none have played fewer than 15 games. With the NFL’s new 17-game season, that means Stroud would have to be the team’s starter by no later than Week 3 to meet that threshold.

Fortunately for him, his only competition for the Texans’ starting quarterback job is former third-round pick Davis Mills. Mills has started in 26 games for the Texans over the past two seasons, and his play has been a contributing factor to the team’s lack of success in that time; Mills’ 5.8 adjusted yards per pass attempt ranked third-worst in the league in 2022. There’s little reason at this point to believe Stroud will have trouble beating out Mills for the starting job in 2023.

It’s also worth noting that just five of the Offensive Rookie of the Year winners since 2010 have played on teams that finished with winning records. Of the six quarterbacks to win the award in that time, only two finished their rookie seasons with winning records. The Texans were not a dream landing spot for a rookie quarterback, and that is baked into Stroud’s odds. However, AP voters have overlooked poor team surroundings when voting for the award in the past, and if Stroud plays well in spite of his surroundings, he may just sway their votes.

Stroud likely won’t need to instantly turn the downtrodden Texans franchise into a winning machine to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year. He won’t need to be a transcendent talent from the moment he steps onto the field -- though it would certainly help. He just needs to play close to a full season and present a better case by season’s end than his fellow rookies.

From a narrative perspective, Stroud may even have an advantage over the other quarterbacks in this year’s class. The Texans have been considerably worse than either the Carolina Panthers or the Indianapolis Colts for several seasons. If Stroud helps the Texans climb out of the doldrums they’ve inhabited since 2019 (or even provides them with a glimmer of hope), he could subjectively look better than his contemporaries even if they end up producing similar numbers by the end of the season.

The Rising Tide to Life Houston's Boat

His draft capital alone should be a strong endorsement for Stroud to start over Mills in 2023, but his production profile as a passer is even more difficult to refute.

In two seasons as the Buckeyes’ signal-caller, Stroud completed 69.3% of his passes for 8,123 yards, 85 touchdowns, and just 12 interceptions. Those 8,123 yards rank second in school history behind only J.T. Barrett (a four-year starter).

It’s undeniable that Stroud had help in amassing those eye-popping numbers. Ohio State’s offense from those seasons has already produced three wide receivers that were drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft: Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Stroud’s two primary receivers during the 2022 season are also expected to garner attention as first-round picks in the 2024 NFL Draft.

The receivers he’ll play with in Houston are not quite as impressive as the wideouts he was throwing to in college. While the team acquired veteran Robert Woods during the offseason and will hope to glean production from young receivers like John Metchie III and Nico Collins, their receiver room is one of the least-exciting groups across the league. It’s possible that tight end Dalton Schultz ends up leading the team in most receiving categories this season.

C.J. Stroud's 2023 Outlook

So far, we have mainly discussed reasons Stroud could win in spite of having a tough first season with the Texans. Houston is tied for the longest odds to win the Super Bowl in 2024 (+18000). However, what if Stroud is instantly a success on the field? With collegiate production like his, it would not be surprising if Stroud’s skillset translates to the NFL level quickly.

Stroud was a significantly more productive passer than his former teammate and 2021 first-round pick Justin Fields while playing with a very similar cast of teammates. In 2020 and 2021, both Fields and Stroud were throwing to a group consisting of the aforementioned Olave, Wilson, and Smith-Njigba. In those two seasons, Stroud averaged 107.1 more passing yards, .92 more passing touchdowns, and 0.25 fewer interceptions per game than Fields did.

This is not a direct apples-to-apples comparison, and Fields hasn’t exactly dominated as a passer yet in the NFL, but it could be a signal that Stroud is a different caliber of quarterback than his predecessor. While Fields has struggled to avoid pressure as a passer in the NFL, Stroud only took 10 sacks in his final season in Columbus.

Finally, Stroud had arguably the best game of his collegiate career against the best defense in college football in 2022. He took the Georgia Bulldogs, the eventual champions, down to the wire in the Peach Bowl, throwing 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions while leading the offense to 41 points -- tied for the most any team has scored against Georgia in the last two seasons. Georgia’s defense has produced a pipeline of talented players to the NFL, and Stroud rose to the occasion against that team.

As a franchise, the Texans aren’t out of the woods yet, but by drafting C.J. Stroud, they may have taken their first significant step toward fixing their football team.

The exciting quarterback has massive potential and is currently +700 to win the AP’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award in 2023.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers