NFL MVP Odds Update: Joe Burrow Claws Back

We are officially 50% of the way through the 2023-24 NFL regular season.

Wow. Where has the time gone? By this point in the year, the NFL MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook are beginning to separate the contenders from everyone else.

Last season's winner, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, did well to score a Week 9 victory in Frankfurt over the Miami Dolphins. While Mahomes' odds shortened here, Miami signal-caller Tua Tagovailoa's inflated slightly in the MVP market.

Also last weekend, Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals outdueled the Buffalo Bills on the banks of the Ohio River. Naturally, that caused Burrow to leapfrog Josh Allen on FanDuel Sportsbook's current MVP odds.

Ahead of NFL Week 10 (which starts with Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football), let's dig into the latest MVP lines.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

*Denotes 2022-23 NFL AP MVP

Notable Jumps

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +240

As mentioned, "Showtime" Mahomes and Kansas City outlasted the Dolphins -- a fellow AFC powerhouse -- on foreign soil. With the Chiefs' victory in Germany, they are officially the first NFL franchise to win games in four different countries. Along with the United States, K.C. has previously won games in England (2015) and Mexico (2019).

In the Frankfurt affair, Mahomes played a clean game en route to victory. The 2022 AP NFL MVP completed 66.7% of his passes versus Miami, two of which went for touchdowns. More importantly, Mahomes did well to bounce back after losing to the rival Denver Broncos Sunday prior.

The Chiefs' 23.1 points per game (PPG) in 2023 might be a little low by their standards, but Mahomes has been quality nonetheless. At a clip of 72.6, the Texas Tech alum has the fourth-highest QBR this season. Additionally, Kansas City is playing prolific enough right now to land atop ESPN's NFL power index while coming in third by numberFire's metrics.

Mahomes is operating with a career-best 68.6% completion clip at the moment. Between either of his previous MVP campaigns, the highest he managed in that category was 67.1%.

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +900

Burrow and the Bengals are currently tied for the second-longest active winning streak in the NFL at four games. Cincinnati's last three wins have been especially impressive, defeating the Bills, San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks -- all of whom were in the playoffs a year ago.

Quite masterfully, Burrow has combined to toss five touchdowns over the past two games, completing 59 of 76 total passes against solid defenses from S.F. and Buffalo. Also, his calf appears to be full-go; Burrow has accumulated 47 rushing yards over that stretch.

Burrow has yet to win a league MVP accolade, as Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are the only active players to have previously earned that honor. However, throughout NFL history, two different players have won the award with the Bengals: fellow quarterbacks Ken Anderson (1981) and Boomer Esiason (1988).

The 2019-20 Heisman Trophy winner is building momentum, which is bad news for anyone outside of Cincinnati. After showing +2200 odds on the MVP board at FanDuel Sportsbook last week, Burrow now yields a +900 number. We have seen Burrow and the Bengals previously start slowly only to right the ship. If they can keep winning and Burrow keeps dealing, he'll be in the MVP conversation.

Steep Drops

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +650

In 2023, Tua has been an MVP frontrunner from the jump. Prior to Week 7, the fourth-year quarterback from Alabama was the outright favorite in this market, labeled with +350 odds at the time. Since then, Miami has suffered losses to both of last season's Super Bowl teams, sending Tagovailoa's MVP odds to +650.

His stock is currently falling, but Tua is certainly not out of this race. Considering Miami is producing league-best figures of 31.7 PPG and 435.3 total yards per game (YPG), the quarterback will be looked upon favorably from multiple angles. Deservedly so, too -- Tagovailoa is pacing the NFL in passing yards (2,609) as well as touchdowns (19).

Right now, the thorn in the side of Tagovailoa's MVP campaign is clear; as electric as Miami has been, the Dolphins are a winless 0-3 against teams with above-.500 records in 2023. For now, Miami heads into a much-needed bye following their recent loss in Deutschland.

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +4500

After defeating both NFL franchises from Los Angeles in back-to-back games, Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys took a tough NFC East loss at the rival Philadelphia Eagles. Admittedly, Prescott played well in the defeat behind 374 passing yards with 3 touchdowns, but a costly fourth-quarter misstep out-of-bounds from the Mississippi State alum stalled Dallas' momentum on a two-point conversion.

Prescott had been climbing up the MVP oddsboard at FanDuel Sportsbook since mid-October. Still, last weekend's admirable loss in Philly sent him from +3300 odds in this market down to +4500. However, you should know that only one player from the Cowboys has won AP NFL MVP, and that was the great Emmitt Smith (1993).

Advantageously for Prescott's MVP stock, Dallas is next lined up for three consecutive games with NFC teams with winning percentages under .500 in 2023: the New York Giants, Carolina Panthers and Washington Commanders. Dak and the 'Boys will need to shine in a major way over that span to get his name back in serious contention.

Honorable Mention

Trending Up

• C.J. Stroud +13000

Falling Down

• Brock Purdy +3400

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.