NFL MVP Betting: Will Lamar Jackson Return to MVP Contention in 2023?

With each passing year, Lamar Jackson’s 2019 MVP campaign seems more and more like an outlier as Jackson has struggled to replicate that award-winning season.

However, there is optimism around the former MVP heading into the 2023 campaign. The Baltimore Ravens appear set to move in a new direction on offense this season, and he's one of the favorites for the MVP award, sitting with the sixth-best odds (+1500), per the NFL MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Does Jackson have what it takes to regain his 2019 form and repeat as the league's MVP?

Where Did the MVP Go?

Much changed for the Ravens in the three seasons since 2019, but we can point to one thing that didn’t: their offense. As early as the 2020 season, Jackson pointed out that opposing defenses knew the Ravens’ plays as soon as the team lined up.

Offensive coordinator Greg Roman was rightfully praised for his ability to switch from a Joe Flacco-centric offense to a Jackson-led attack halfway through the 2018 season and was again lauded for helping construct the offense that Jackson piloted to a 2019 MVP win. But in the years since, defenses adapted to the Ravens’ once-revolutionary offense, and things have grown stale.

The team parted ways with Roman following the 2022 season and are bringing on former Georgia Bulldogs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Todd Monken to help steer their offense in a new direction.

Monken’s Tampa Bay offenses were some of the most aggressive passing attacks in the league between 2016 and 2018. In 2017, the Bucs attempted the third-most passes and produced the fourth-most passing yards. The following year, they attempted the fourth-most passes and finished with more passing yards than any other team.

Monken was most recently seen guiding the Georgia offense to back-to-back national championships. Much of the credit for those wins has rightfully been assigned to the team’s NFL-ready defense, but the Bulldogs’ offenses still ranked among the best of the best in college football in those years.

A new play-caller is far from the only thing that will be different with the Ravens' offense.

A Whole New Offense

The team’s personnel decisions in the offense also point toward the new direction the team seems to be taking for the 2023 season. For the first time in what feels like years, the front office has committed heavy resources to bolster the team’s pass-catching depth.

The Ravens made Odell Beckham one of the highest-paid free agents of the offseason when they signed him to a one-year contract worth up to $18 million. Beckham missed the entire 2022 season while rehabbing the ACL injury he suffered during the previous Super Bowl but was an impact player for the Los Angeles Rams after he joined that team partway through the 2021 season. He caught five touchdowns in seven regular season games, adding another two during the playoffs before the injury. He should be an immediate boon to the Ravens’ passing attack as long as he is healthy.

The Ravens didn’t stop there. The team used its first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to select Boston College wide receiver Zay Flowers, one of the best deep threats in the nation. His 18.5 yards per route run on deep routes ranked second among all drafted receivers in the class and looks even more impressive given the lackluster quarterback play he endured during his time at Boston College. Flowers also thrived as a playmaker with the ball in his hands and could be a useful weapon on designed touches for the Ravens’ offense.

Those new additions will join Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman to form the core of the Ravens’ passing offense in 2023. Andrews has operated as Baltimore's top pass-game weapon since joining the team, and Bateman looked primed for a breakout in 2022 before a broken foot prematurely ended his season.

We might be underestimating how impactful Bateman can be for the Ravens. Jackson threw for 11 touchdowns in the four games Bateman was fully healthy, and Bateman scored two of those touchdowns and had an impressive 10.2 yards per target in that time. Things fell off for the offense after that, though, with Jackson throwing just six more passing touchdowns over the next seven games without a healthy Bateman in the lineup.

The Ravens’ receiver room is going to look a whole heck of a lot better this year than it ever has before in Jackson’s career. After Bateman’s injury last year, the Ravens’ top qualifying wideout averaged just 1.5 yards per route run in 2022. For reference that ranked outside of the top 60 players across the league, behind several running backs and most of the pass-catching tight ends.

Running Off the Rails

We should absolutely get excited about the Ravens’ passing offense in 2023 as Jackson may put up his best passing numbers since his MVP campaign. We can also get reasonably excited about the team’s rushing offense and how that can contribute to a successful MVP run for Jackson in 2023.

In 2019, the Ravens’ top backs -- a 30-year-old Mark Ingram and second-year undrafted free agent Gus Edwards -- averaged more than 5.0 yards per carry while combining for more than 1,800 rushing yards. Even as Ingram began to lose steam in the next season, that duo plus the fresh legs of rookie J.K. Dobbins still produced more than 1,800 rushing yards at an efficient clip.

The wheels completely fell off after that, though. Both Dobbins and Edwards suffered brutal knee injuries in the preseason ahead of the 2021 campaign. Even third-string back Justice Hill tore his Achilles tendon before the beginning of the season. The team managed to eke out surprising production from some veteran free agent signings, but their backs barely mustered a total of 1,000 rushing yards on the season. Coupled with Jackson’s injury at the end of the year, 2021 was close to a disaster for the Ravens.

The 2022 Ravens fared better on the ground, but it was clear both Dobbins and Edwards were still limited by their injuries for much of the season.

Their running game should hopefully get back on track in 2023. Dobbins underwent a cleanup procedure on his knee during the 2022 season and appeared to regain some of the electric burst he flashed as a draft prospect and as a rookie. Edwards took a pay cut to remain with the team and is another year removed from his own knee injuries.

It has been a rough few years for running backs in Baltimore, but they appear primed to bounce back in 2023. And with stability from his pass-catchers and his running backs, Jackson should be poised to return to form in 2023.

Conclusion

Injuries, a lack of depth, and stale play-calling have held the Ravens’ offenses down over the past two seasons, and public memory of Jackson’s 2019 MVP season seems to be fading as the years go by.

But Baltimore has taken massive strides to shore up those deficiencies as they prepare for the 2023 season, even locking in their starting quarterback for the long haul with a massive contract extension.

When he's at his best, Jackson is one of the most exciting quarterbacks the league has ever seen, and we could see him at his best again this season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.