3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 4/29/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds

Reds Over 4.5 Runs (-125)

The Cincinnati Reds' bats have a plus matchup against right-hander Miles Mikolas, and when that's coupled with fairly warm conditions at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, we should like their chances of being productive at the plate.

Over five starts, Mikolas has produced a 5.22 SIERA, 12.3% strikeout rate, and 8.5% walk rate. The lack of punchouts coincides with a nonexistent 13.7% whiff rate (first percentile).

The 36-year-old already has an ugly 5.70 ERA, yet he hasn't allowed a home run in spite of a 39.3% ground-ball rate and below-average marks in both barrel rate (8.3%) and hard-hit rate (41.7%). That zero in the home run column shouldn't remain much longer.

Cincinnati has been a solid offense against right-handers this season, too, ranking 13th among active rosters in wRC+ (110).

Mikolas' lack of Ks or grounders looks like a recipe for disaster in one of MLB's best parks for offense, and we should be happy to back the Reds to score five or more runs. Note that there is rain in the forecast, though, so that will be something to keep tabs on this afternoon.

Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets

Diamondbacks ML (+120)

This is a tough assignment for Eduardo Rodriguez against the New York Mets -- particularly with roughly 20 mph winds blowing out to left field -- but the Arizona Diamondbacks could still be a value tonight.

E-Rod has pitched much better than his 4.40 ERA would indicate, as both his xFIP (2.84) and xERA (2.87) show he's been closer to elite than not. This is further supported by a 27.6% K rate and 5.7% BB rate that are significant improvements over what we've seen in recent seasons.

Even though Rodriguez will face a righty-heavy Mets lineup, he's actually put up a 29.1% strikeout rate against 86 batters with that handedness, which should help him put the clamps on what's typically a scary offense for southpaws.

Arizona will also following Rodriguez with a bullpen that ranks first among active rosters in xFIP (3.04), so the Mets could have trouble getting going even once E-Rod is out of the game.

This Diamondbacks lineup will also be up against a lefty in David Peterson, but this should be a slightly easier matchup. While Peterson is armed with a 55.7% ground-ball rate, he's only slightly above average in strikeout rate (23.5%) and has been giving up a massive 52.5% hard-hit rate (4th percentile). The end result is a less imposing 4.38 xERA.

The high winds could come into play at a normally pitcher-friendly Citi Field, but E-Rod is capable of twirling a gem, and that's enough to consider backing the D-Backs at plus money.

Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers Over 4.5 Runs (-113)

Sandy Alcantara has endured a rough start for the Miami Marlins to open this campaign, posting a 4.84 xERA, 17.0% strikeout rate, and 12.0% walk rate through five outings. Even an elite 59.2% ground-ball rate hasn't been able to save him due to allowing a hefty 49.3% hard-hit rate (10th percentile).

Bringing these metrics to a battle against the vaunted Los Angeles Dodgers likely spells trouble. The Dodgers' active roster has "just" a 114 wRC+ and .188 ISO versus righties in 2025, but if we expand out to the start of last season, they top the sample with a 122 wRC+ and .199 ISO.

Further aiding the Dodgers' sluggers will be a Miami bullpen that has the worst xFIP (5.02), third-worst strikeout rate (18.8%), and worst walk rate (12.8%) among active rosters.

Los Angeles averaged 5.20 runs per game in 2024, and it wouldn't be surprising to see them produce at a similar clip in the coming months. In any case, logging five-plus runs looks well within reach on Tuesday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.