NFL MVP Betting: The Case for Dak Prescott

Dak Prescott has had a hard time getting his due credit.

Entering the league in 2016, Prescott won the AP’s NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award over teammate Ezekiel Elliott. The fourth-round pick unexpectedly helped lead his team to a 13-3 record, taking over for incumbent starter Tony Romo after the veteran suffered a back injury in the preseason.

In the ensuing seasons, critics seemed hesitant to give Prescott any real credit. If the Dallas Cowboys succeeded, it was due to their strong offensive line. Or Elliott’s rushing abilities. Or the team’s surplus of offensive playmakers

Even his own team hesitated to give him a long-term contract. The Cowboys instead chose to extend Elliott with a six-year, $90 million deal before the end of his rookie deal while Prescott was made to play out the entirety of his own rookie deal. He had to play an additional season on the franchise tag after his rookie contract expired before the team finally caved and signed him to a multi-year extension.

Unfortunately, for both Prescott and the Cowboys, the franchise quarterback has struggled with injuries in two of his three most recent seasons.

In 2020, he suffered a devastating ankle injury five games into the season and missed the rest of the year. His play up until that point was genuinely MVP-worthy and was what finally convinced the team to sign him to an extension. He dealt with multiple injuries in the following season but only missed a single game. And most recently, Prescott was limited to just 12 starts in 2022 after suffering an injury in Week 1

It has been a bumpy road for Prescott since entering the league, but the ingredients could be there for him to assemble an MVP-caliber season in 2023. The FanDuel Sportsbook’s NFL season awards betting odds market has Prescott with +1600 odds to take home the AP’s NFL MVP award, tying him for the seventh-best odds in the league. What will Prescott need to do to take home the trophy this season?

Dak’s Resume

We’ve seen glimpses of Prescott playing like an MVP-level player before. His four healthy games in 2020 had him on pace to break NFL passing records – he was averaging 422.5 passing yards, 2.3 passing touchdowns, and 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game that season. Extrapolated to a full 17-game season, that would come to over 7,100 yards and 53 touchdowns.

NFL seasons already inherently provide small sample sizes, and extrapolating numbers from an even smaller sample size likely isn’t a great way to predict future performances. But when considering potential future MVP candidates, it’s hard to ignore a player who was putting up those gaudy numbers – regardless of sample size.

Zooming out, Prescott has been an efficient passer for much of his career. His career averages would have placed him as a top-10 passer in most metrics last season. In 2022, his 5.1% career touchdown rate would have ranked 9th, his 2% interception rate would have ranked 13th, his 4.8% sack rate would have been 5th-best, and his 7.7 adjusted yards per pass attempt would have finished 7th.

He has yet to garner serious attention as an MVP-contender in any of his seasons (for a variety of reasons), but his career numbers should keep him in at least the periphery of the conversation in any season he plays a full slate of games.

Wheels up in Dallas

Prescott's career averages already look good on paper for a potential MVP candidate heading into the season, but his surroundings in 2023 could set him up for a better-than-career-average season.

In an addition-by-subtraction style move, the Cowboys’ offense should play more efficiently without Elliott in the picture.

The Cowboys remained committed to Elliott until the bitter end, but his play in 2022 did not warrant that kind of treatment. He averaged a career-low 3.8 yards per carry last season, producing just 1.5 yards after contact per carry – the 35th-best mark among qualifying players last season. The former tackle-breaking back broke just 9 tackles in his 231 carries, generating 1 broken tackle every 25.7 attempts (32nd in the league).

By funneling more of Elliott’s opportunities to Tony Pollard in 2023, the Cowboys' offense should be able to generate more explosive plays and sustain drives more effectively.

The Cowboys’ receivers should also look better in 2023 after a middling 2022. CeeDee Lamb did excel as the team’s top option last season, but Michael Gallup did not look healthy for much of the year.

Gallup finished the 2022 campaign with a career-worst 65.4 passer rating when targeted while dropping twice as many passes as he did in the previous year. Now, another year removed from the ACL injury that ended his 2021 campaign, he could be poised to make a big impact this season.

The team also acquired veteran wideout Brandin Cooks from the Houston Texans via trade, who should add another speedy and reliable element to their passing game.

Amari Cooper’s departure had ripple effects throughout the offense in 2022 and certainly exposed the team’s lack of depth in its receiver corps. Even if the 29-year-old Cooks has lost a step, his competence should raise the passing offense’s floor in 2023

Prescott’s 15 interceptions in 2022 set a career-high mark, but he should turn things around this season. He threw five of those interceptions while targeting the limited Gallup, five to former tight end Dalton Schultz (now of the Texans), and another four while targeting Noah Brown.

Gallup’s improved health should curb the interceptions on his targets, and the addition of Cooks should mean fewer targets for Brown in general. Schultz did provide Prescott with a big frame to target on low average depth of target passes but was unreliable as a contested-catch player.

The Cowboys made several positive-EV moves this offseason that should pay dividends throughout the year, and as a result, will aid Prescott’s MVP case.

In-Division Hurdles

Perhaps the biggest hurdle Prescott – and the Cowboys – will have to clear this season will be the Philadelphia Eagles.

Almost every MVP-winner in recent history has led their team to a division title. That will be difficult for the Cowboys in 2023 while they compete for the NFC East against the Eagles, who are fresh off of a dominant season and a Super Bowl appearance.

The NFL Division betting odds market on FanDuel Sportsbook has the Cowboys at +175 to win the NFC East, trailing the Eagles’ -105 odds. The Eagles are the early favorite to win the division, but it’s encouraging for the Cowboys that they aren’t too far behind – no other second-ranked team across the entire league has better odds to win their division than the Cowboys at +175.

In addition to a division title, most teams with MVPs win a lot of games. Over the last 10 years, only Matt Ryan’s Atlanta Falcons in 2016 (11 wins) won fewer than 12 games. For the AP’s voters, guiding a team to wins is one of the most valuable qualities a Most Valuable Player can have.

Fortunately for Prescott, the Cowboys should have a realistic shot at winning that many games. The NFL win totals betting odds market has the Cowboys’ over/under set at 9.5 wins for the 2023 season.

They’ll need to outperform expectations by a little bit, but wins over the Eagles could help them accomplish that. Beating the Eagles would also aid Prescott’s case for the MVP award, considering one of his biggest rivals for the award heading into the season will be the Eagles’ own Jalen Hurts (+1200).

And while it was a league-worst defense that helped propel Prescott to such great heights for the first few weeks of the 2020 season, the defense should help prop up the Cowboys’ win totals in 2023. They’ve led the league in turnovers created in each of the past two seasons and allowed the sixth- and seventh-fewest points in those seasons.

Conclusion

The Cowboys should be a better team in 2023 than they were in 2022, and that makes Prescott (+1600) a legitimate contender for the MVP award.

His consistent top-end production over his career has kept him on the precipice of a truly elite season, and the team’s moves this offseason could help push him over the top.

Their potent combination of offense and defense should keep the Cowboys alive for the NFC East title for most of the season and could help them win as many as 11 or 12 games along the way.

Prescott’s circumstances look pretty similar – if not better – on paper to those of several of his competitors with better odds, like Joe Burrow (+700) and Justin Herbert (+900), while his odds trail theirs at +1600.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.