Best NASCAR Bets and Predictions for the Cook Out 400 in Martinsville

Ryan Blaney is a cursed man.

He has had big speed each of the past three races only to see it all go up in smoke -- quite literally, with his day ending twice with a blown engine.

As a bettor, you'd hope that'd allow us to get him at a discount this week at Martinsville, one of his best tracks.

Alas.

Despite the issues, Blaney is the favorite in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds, sitting at +450. My model agrees that he is the favorite -- it's just not quite high enough on him to bet him.

Instead, the best value seems to lie lower in the non-outright markets.

Let's start by running through my model's simulations of the race prior to practice and qualifying. Then, we'll lay out my favorite bets of the week.

(NOTE: The sims have since been updated post-qualifying.)

NASCAR Predictions for Martinsville

NASCAR Betting Picks for Martinsville

Daniel Suarez to Finish Top 10 (+350)

(UPDATE: Suarez has since shortened to +290 to finish top 10. He has slid a bit in the model after middling speed Saturday, so I wouldn't bet him at this shortened number.)

Even with only two career top-10s at Martinsville across 16 races, Daniel Suarez has shown speed here in the past. I think his finishes are leading to his being underrated in the market.

We've had six Next-Gen era races at Martinsville. Although Suarez's best finish is 12th, he has had a pair of top-10 average running positions. He had two crashes and a costly pit-road speeding penalty across the other four races, leading to poor results.

That speed should still be there, though, and Suarez was broadly solid on short, flat tracks last year. He was 10th in both Richmond and Phoenix down the stretch, both supported by a top-15 average running position. That -- combined with the track history -- is why my model has him at 27.4% to finish top 10, up from 22.2% implied.

Austin Dillon to Finish Top 10 (+700)

(UPDATE: Dillon has since shortened to +310 to finish top 10. I'm higher on him now than I was before practice -- he's up to 19.6% for me -- but that's still below his new implied odds. Thus, I wouldn't bet Dillon at the shortened number.)

Short, flat tracks are likely Austin Dillon's best track type, and this number doesn't reflect that.

Obviously Dillon caught attention last year for his chaotic win in Richmond, another short, flat track. He followed that up with a seventh-place run in Martinsville, and he was 12th in Phoenix this year. Dillon had another top 10 in Gateway, a bigger track but one that does lack banking.

Dillon has two top-10s and a 12th in six Next-Gen races in Martinsville. That kind of track record boosts him to 18.3% to finish top 10 in my model, well clear of his 12.5% implied odds.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Chase Elliott to Win (+750)

I don't often get to show value on Hendrick cars at Martinsville, a track they've dominated the past few decades. Here, I've got value on two, and I'm willing to bet both.

Let's start with Chase Elliott. Elliott qualified on the outside pole and will have easy access to the front. He also had decent practice pace, ranking sixth the average speed of his 10 fastest laps (after minor group speed differential adjustments) and seventh in the 20-lap split.

Elliott consistently leads laps here. He has led 50-plus laps in 7 of 10 races since the start of 2020, including 5 of 6 Next Gen races. He didn't win any of the Next Gen races, but he was on the podium both races last year.

It's possible my model is too top-heavy this week -- it's showing value in five drivers at +1300 or shorter -- so I do want to be picky. But Elliott has the second biggest gap between my model and the market, putting him on the list even while acknowledging I could be off.

Post-Qualifying Addition: William Byron to Win (+1200)

Elliott's the second biggest value; his teammate, William Byron, tops the charts.

I've got Byron at 12.4% to win, well clear of his 7.7% implied odds. Whenever the gap's that big, you have to question if you're missing something. But Byron's track record leads me to think +1200 is just too long.

Byron has won two of six Next Gen races here, including last year's spring race. In last year's playoff race, Byron led 51 laps and had a third-place average running position. He showed good speed in this year's lone race at a short, flat track, posting a fourth-place average running position in Phoenix.

Although Byron qualified 10th, he had better practice speed than Elliott (3rd in the 10-lap split and 5th in the 20-lap), so I see no reason he should be as long as he is.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Todd Gilliland to Finish Top 10 (+750)

Speaking of practice times, the driver who was third in 20-lap pace is +750 to finish top 10. I'll take it.

This track has always been good to Todd Gilliland. He won a Truck race here in 2019 and led 133 of 203 laps in 2021 before getting promoted to the Cup Series.

In Cup, Gilliland has just one top-10 in six races, but he was 13th in two others. Even in one of the races he finished worse than that, he still had a 13th-place average running position.

Gilliland will start 25th, so he has ground to make up. His practice pace paired with his track history allows me to think he can do that. My model has him at 19.0% to finish top 10, up from 11.8% implied.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.