NFL MVP Betting: Matthew Stafford Is a Forgotten Man

Have we all completely forgotten about Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford?

Per the NFL MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, Stafford’s MVP odds come in at +6000, making him the 21st-most likely player to take home the award in 2023. Simply put: there probably aren't 20 quarterbacks better than Stafford in the NFL this season.

We are talking about a quarterback who won the Super Bowl just two seasons ago. The same Stafford who kept the Detroit Lions relevant for years while they fiddled with otherwise barren rosters. Sure, 2022 was a rough season for Stafford and the Rams, but it seems as though public opinion has fallen too far on a proven quarterback who was just playing at a high level two years ago.

So what gives, and should you take a shot on Stafford to win the MVP at his long-shot odds?

The 2022 Season

There are Super Bowl hangovers, and then there’s what happened with the Rams in 2022.

The team stumbled out of the gates a bit with a 3-3 record heading into their early Week 7 bye, but all of their losses to that point came against future playoff teams and legitimate contenders. The wheels really fell off after that, though, with the team losing each of their next six games. They won just two games over the rest of the season and finished with a 5-12 record, the worst of head coach Sean McVay’s career.

Stafford took a serious beating during the season, which was a major factor in the Rams' inability to win games. The 29 sacks he took ranked 16th-most among NFL starting quarterbacks last year, but he amassed that number while playing in just nine total games as health was an issue for him all season long.

The veteran entered the 2022 campaign with a mysterious elbow injury that prevented him from throwing for virtually the entire offseason program. He dealt with that injury for the whole season before he was finally shut down, but the elbow injury wasn’t even the most concerning issue.

Stafford self-reported concussion symptoms after the team’s Week 9 game and missed the team’s Week 10 contest while he progressed through the league’s concussion protocols. He was cleared for the team’s Week 11 game but was forced out of that contest after suffering a concussion and a neck injury. In the ensuing weeks, it was reported that Stafford had suffered a spinal cord contusion, and he finished the year on the injured reserve.

Stafford’s injuries forced the veteran to at least consider retirement, per reports, but both he and Sean McVay were adamant about returning for the 2023 season. And, according to McVay, Stafford is no longer dealing with the elbow injury that limited him in 2022. In other words, Stafford should be healthy again this year.

A big reason Stafford took so many sacks last season was due to the team’s offensive line. According to PFF, 10 different LA offensive linemen surrendered sacks over the course of the year. The fact the Rams even had to play that many different offensive linemen is indicative of the kind of season the team endured -- injuries and subpar play plagued the offense for the entire campaign.

There are still legitimate concerns about the O-Line's outlook for the upcoming season, but at least they should have all of their starters in place at the beginning of the year.

To contextualize just how injured the Rams were -- across the board -- last season, take a look at Football Outsiders’ adjusted games lost metric, which measures the cost that injuries inflict on a team’s roster in a given season. Only the Denver Broncos suffered more from their team’s injuries last year than the Rams did, and those two teams were miles more devastated by injury than anyone else, according to that metric.

In short, the Rams were an outlier in how banged up they were in 2022, and that should normalize this season.

In recent years, the Rams have taken the approach of trading future assets for high-value players. That approach won them a Super Bowl, but the rent came due last year. The litany of injuries the team dealt with exposed the lack of depth that their stars-and-scrubs roster-building style created, and it resulted in a team that finished the year with Baker Mayfield as its starting quarterback and Ben Skowronek as its top receiver.

A Brighter Horizon

Things should be better for the Rams in 2023, but the betting public doesn’t seem to believe it as we head toward July.

The Rams have +850 odds to win the NFC West, ranking well behind both the San Francisco 49ers (-165) and Seattle Seahawks (+220). In fact, across the entire NFL, only the Washington Commanders (+850) and Arizona Cardinals (+2400) have worse odds to win their division.

This seems like a bit of an overreaction to one poor, injury-marred season. The Rams are admittedly in a rebuilding phase -- they moved Jalen Ramsey for a third-round pick and a young tight end back in March -- but they still have elite talents like Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp available for the upcoming season.

Those division odds are particularly striking given that the 49ers are prepared to enter the season with a former seventh-round pick at quarterback who is coming off of a brutal elbow injury, while the Seahawks were a team that wildly overperformed their preseason expectations last year with Geno Smith at quarterback. Even once Kyler Murray (ACL) returns to the fold, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to call Stafford the best quarterback in the NFC West.

Having a top-notch quarterback will always be the most valuable aspect of any roster in the NFL, and it is an edge the Rams have over most of their own division this season. If Purdy and Smith turn back into pumpkins, the Rams could be a real force in the NFC West once again.

Taking home a division title has appeared to be one of the most significant bullet points the Associated Press’ voters look for on any MVP candidate’s resume. All but two MVP winners from the past 20 seasons led their teams to a division crown in the year they won the MVP. As long as Stafford, Kupp, and Donald stay healthy this season, the Rams can make some noise in the NFC West.

Room For Growth

We’ve seen Stafford take his team to the Super Bowl before, so we know he’s capable of elite play. Still, he has never been without faults, and two specific aspects of his game have prevented him from entering MVP ballots in seasons past -- his tendencies for turnovers and sacks.

The Associated Press’ voters seem to heavily favor quarterbacks who don’t contribute negative plays to their offenses. Since 2010, we’ve seen 12 quarterbacks take home the MVP award. Those quarterbacks averaged only 7.4 interceptions per season in their MVP-winning years and just 28.1 sacks in those seasons, as well.

Throwing even double-digit interceptions has been close to a non-starter for a lot of MVP candidates. From that sample of 12 winners, just 4 threw 10 or more interceptions in their winning seasons. Patrick Mahomes threw 12 picks in each of his winning campaigns, while Cam Newton and Peyton Manning each has 10 interceptions during an MVP-winning year. Those quarterbacks generated such potent offenses that they were still able to lead their teams to league-best records in their MVP seasons despite throwing that many interceptions.

For his career, Stafford holds a 2.4% interception rate and has never finished a full season with fewer than 10 interceptions. And even in an injury-shortened 2022 season, he took more sacks (29) in nine games than several recent MVP-winners took across their entire winning seasons.

The best way a team can minimize interceptions and sacks is by keeping their quarterback upright and away from pressure. The 2022 Rams did not do a good job of that. According to Pro-Football-Reference’s pocket time metric, which measures how long a quarterback had, on average, before pressure affected the pocket, Stafford’s 2.3-second mark tied for the second-shortest among passers last season. Given that, it’s understandable he took so many sacks and tossed too many interceptions last season.

The Rams’ offensive line isn’t likely to regain their formidable status any time soon, but things should be better in 2023. They had multiple starters miss more than half the season in 2022, and those guys should have a better chance to stay healthy in 2023. They also added a second-round pick in TCU’s Steve Avila to bolster the guard position. The group will be far from perfect this season, but they should still be able to do a much better job protecting their quarterback.

Conclusion

The 2022 Rams had a nightmare season, and the negative stigma from that year has carried over into the public’s outlook for the 2023 season -- possibly more than it should.

LA dealt with a ton of injuries last year, and it’s hard to project that happening again in 2023.

Things are looking sunnier in Los Angeles, and Stafford is just one season removed from a Super Bowl-winning year. NFL MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook have him +6000 to take home the award this season, placing him behind players like Trey Lance (+5000) and Kenny Pickett (+4000).

If you think the Rams are underrated sleepers to win the NFC West, Stafford makes for an enticing bet to win the MVP at his long-shot odds.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.