2 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Christmas Day

There are a lot better ways to spend your Christmas than tilting the play of a third-string quarterback.

Thus, be warned: the spots where I'm seeing value on Thursday's NFL slate ain't pretty. If you want in, you're going to be depending on some abysmal quarterback play.

But, hey. Value is value, and I understand why my models are showing what they are. Let's dig in and discuss a couple of hideous bets I'm willing to make in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds.

Best NFL Christmas Day 2025 Spread and Total Bets

Cowboys at Commanders

Total Over 50.5 (-106)

For this total to go over such a big number, we'll need a non-negligible contribution from Josh Johnson and the Washington Commanders. Johnson -- despite being 39 -- has fewer career drop backs than Cameron Ward.

With these two defenses, though, I just can't get my total to align with the market, pushing me to back the over.

Part of that is the infrastructure around Johnson. Even though the Commanders have played long stretches this season without key players across the board on offense, they've still been fine. Clearly, Kliff Kingsbury can still push the right buttons, and that could put Johnson in a position to at least be competent.

The Dallas Cowboys should have no problem doing the heavy lifting here. The offense has still broadly been productive even outdoors this year, and they're mostly healthy. You can go toward their team total if you prefer, but I do think the Commanders will do enough to push this full-game total over.

Broncos at Chiefs

Chiefs +12.5 (-105)

Between the two, this is definitely the grosser bet. This is just a massive number to lay on the road for what is -- in my eyes -- a non-elite team.

I've got two separate models that I blend together to make my spread and total predictions. One of them -- even after downgrading other teams for quarterback injuries -- still has the Denver Broncos ninth in its power rankings. The other has them seventh. They're good, and there's a reason they've won so many games; they're just not a tier above the pack, and that's where they'd need to be for me to square this number with the market.

I don't know what we're going to get out of Chris Oladokun. Maybe it's bad enough where the Broncos have multiple defensive scores and just run away with things. But Oladokun does still have Andy Reid and company to put him in a position for relative success. That support matters.

It does seem the market agrees, at least to an extent, as this spread was 13.5 yesterday. That means we're getting a worse number now. I still think there's enough value to back the Chiefs off a market overreaction to last week's faceplant.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You'll receive $250 in Bonus Bets if your first $5+ bet wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today's other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which NFL bets stand out to you? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.