NFL Expert Best Bets, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 6

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop from the NFL betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

They'll also share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they're on that bet.

Here's what our staff likes for this week.

Note: All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Betting lines and our NFL projections may change after this article is published.

NFL Expert Picks for Week 6

Austin Swaim, Senior Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Browns +9.5 (-110)

Total: Commanders-Ravens Over 51.5 (-105)

The Baltimore Ravens' defense has given up a minimum of 26 offensive points in every game this season and now draws the red-hot Washington Commanders, who are numberFire's top-ranked offense in schedule-adjusted efficiency. Yet, Baltimore is a 6.5-point favorite because Lamar Jackson gets to take aim at Washington's fifth-worst defense, as well. These two teams also play at a decent situation-adjusted pace, so I'm expecting a "last team to touch the ball wins" shootout in Charm City.

Player Prop: Diontae Johnson Over 5.5 Receptions (-102)

Austan Kas, Senior Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Bengals -3.5 (-118)

Total: Jaguars-Bears Over 44.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Anthony Richardson Any Time Touchdown (+140)

As of Friday morning, it looks like Jonathan Taylor will be out this week as he's yet to practice. If Taylor sits, I'm interested in Richardson's touchdown odds. Richardson scored four rushing touchdowns in four starts as a rookie, and those four TDs all occurred in games Taylor missed.

Kenyatta Storin, Senior Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Commanders +6.5 (-105)

While I'm not sure whether Washington can pull off the upset, this should be a tight, back-and-forth slugfest between the NFL's top two schedule-adjusted offenses. Baltimore's just 24th in adjusted pass defense, so this isn't a daunting matchup for star rookie Jayden Daniels, which should help him keep pace with his counterpart Lamar Jackson. Daniels' rushing ability naturally gets a ton of attention in fantasy circles, but let's not forget he also leads NFL starters in expected points per drop back (0.33).

Total: Commanders-Ravens Over 51.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Darnell Mooney Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Aidan Cotter, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Bears -1.5 (-105)

Total: Bucs-Saints Over 41.5 (-106)

Player Prop: DeAndre Hopkins Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Coming out of the bye, Hopkins finally gets the kind of soft matchup he can take advantage of. The Colts are 27th in adjusted pass defense and have allowed the second most yards per route run (1.93) to opposing wide receivers. That sets D-Hop up for a nice afternoon considering he led the Titans in target share (21%) and air yard share (35%) in their previous two games despite being limited to a 37.4% snap rate over that stretch.

Annie Nader, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Bengals -3.5 (-118)

Total: Falcons-Panthers Under 46.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Terry McLaurin Any Time Touchdown (+170)

McLaurin is enjoying a 27.3% target share, 57.0% air yards share, and 15.4% red-zone target share this season. The Ravens are surrendering 8.1 yards per pass attempt (fourth-most) and check in as numberFire’s 24th-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense. I’ll back Jayden Daniels and company to at least attempt a shootout, and perhaps that includes finding Terry in the end zone.

Riley Thomas, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Bears -1.5 (-105)

Total: Commanders' Team Total Over 21.5 (-114)

Player Prop: Jahmyr Gibbs 70-Plus Rushing Yards (+140)

Targeting the Detroit Lions' run game should be all over our radars against the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas has worst schedule-adjusted run defense while Detroit carries the third-best adjusted run offense. Gibbs has logged 81.7 rushing yards per game over his last three, reaching at least 78 rushing yards in all three contests. He’s been the more efficient back than David Montgomery, totaling 0.61 rushing yards over expectation per carry compared to Monty’s 0.09. Gibbs’ 57.5 rushing prop feels very obtainable, making the 70+ alternate line an intriguing take at +140.

Skyler Carlin, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Buccaneers -3.5 (-105)

Total: Falcons-Panthers Under 46.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Zay Flowers Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Given Flowers leads the Ravens in target share (27.1%), air yards share (30.0%), and downfield targets per game (3.6), via NextGenStats, this line seems too low with the Ravens carrying the highest implied total (29.0) in a game against a shaky Commanders secondary. Washington's defense is permitting the 9th-highest target rate (21.8%) and 11th-most yards per route run (1.74) to WRs this season.

Jim Sannes, Managing Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Cowboys +3 (-105)

Total: Lions-Cowboys Under 52.5 (-115)

I understand why this total is where it's at, but I'd expect a heavy dose of ground and pound out of the Lions. While they should be efficient, that also keeps the clock ticking, which is good for an under. My model has this total decently high at 48.2 points, but that's still low enough for me to feel good about an under.

Player Prop: Terry McLaurin Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.