NFL Draft Position Betting: Will Bo Nix Be a First-Round Pick?

The wait is nearly over for the 2024 NFL Draft, which is set to begin next Thursday. The incoming quarterback prospects have dominated conversations centered around the draft as it will be interesting to see where the top signal-callers in the class land.

Among the incoming rookies, Bo Nix is a quarterback who could see a variety of scenarios play out during the draft. Will Nix be a first-round pick following a successful end to his collegiate career at Oregon? Or will teams around the NFL view Nix as more of a Day 2 option?

FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a plethora of NFL Draft odds markets before the Chicago Bears are on the clock with the No. 1 overall pick. One of the markets being offered to people in certain states is draft position over/unders for Nix and other notable prospects in this year's incoming class of rookies.

With Nix's over/under on draft position sitting at 32.5 -- with the over holding -220 odds -- let's take a look at the chances of each side hitting.

NFL Draft Odds

Bo Nix Draft Position Over/Under

Why Bo Nix Could Go Before Pick 32.5 (+162)

Simply put, quarterback is the most important position in the NFL, and there are several quarterback-needy teams who could address the position early in the draft. There are also other teams who could select Nix early in the draft in hopes to develop him behind a veteran starter.

At the beginning of the first round, teams like the Bears, Washington Commanders, and New England Patriots are all in the market for a quarterback. It is assumed that Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and J.J. McCarthy -- in any order -- are going to be the first four quarterbacks selected in this year's draft.

Currently, in FanDuel Sportsbook's "Top 3 Overall Picks Exact Order" market, the order of Williams, Daniels, and then Maye has the shortest odds (-145) to be the correct combination.

Once Williams, Maye, Daniels and McCarthy are off the board, it remains to be seen who is taken first between Nix and Michael Penix Jr. That being said, the Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, and Las Vegas Raiders -- all picking outside the top 10 in the first round -- are in need of a new signal-caller.

The New York Giants -- a team that is reportedly looking at the incoming rookie signal-callers -- recently met with Nix and Spencer Rattler despite giving Daniel Jones a lucrative contract before the 2023 campaign.

Of the teams listed above, the Vikings seem to be the team most likely to take a QB. They have two first-round picks after trading for the No. 23 overall selection earlier this offseason. The fact that Minnesota could either move up for a quarterback or have two chances to take one undoubtedly improves the odds of Nix hearing his name called in the first round.

Why Bo Nix Could Go After Pick 32.5 (-220)

After transferring to Oregon for his final two seasons in college, Nix proceeded to complete 77.4% of his passing attempts for 4,508 yards, 45 touchdowns, and only three interceptions in 2023. While he wasn't pressured often behind a formidable offensive line, Nix also tallied the best completion percentage (67.2%), the fourth-most yards per attempt (9.7) and third-most passing touchdowns (9) when pressured this past season, via PFF.

The numbers were certainly noteworthy during his tenure with the Ducks, but will teams ignore his lack of production at Auburn? Throughout his three seasons with the Tigers, Nix failed to complete more than 61% of his passes or throw more than 16 touchdowns in any campaign.

What each team considering Nix needs to contemplate is whether or not Nix made vast improvements in his game or if he was a byproduct of a quarterback-friendly offense at Oregon. Both can be true, which is why there's a legitimate chance we see Nix taken in the first round.

Outside of his team-offense context at Oregon, another big knock against Nix is that he is one of the older quarterback prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft (24 years old), which could make some teams skeptical of his long-term outlook. It remains to be seen if Nix is viewed as a rookie-year starter by any team, so the fact he could be sitting until he's 25 or older is likely a cause for concern for some organizations.

We've seen quarterback prospects fall further than expected in recent years (Malik Willis and Will Levis), and we don't truly know how certain teams are approaching the draft. There are unquestionably multiple scenarios where Nix will have to wait until the second day of the draft to find out where he'll be playing in the NFL, which is why the over is listed at -220.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.