NFL Divisional Round Expert Betting Picks and Predictions

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop. They'll share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they're on that bet.

All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Note: Betting lines and numberFire's player projections may change after this article is published.

NFL Expert Picks for Divisional Round

Jim Sannes, Digital Media Managing Editor

Side: Houston Texans +9.5 (-110)

This is primarily a bet on the Texans' passing offense, even in a rough matchup with the Ravens. After factoring in last week's data, the Ravens now have the best defense in football by my numbers. They're legit. But the Texans' offense when CJ Stroud has been healthy has been phenomenal. Not only will they be on the road here, but they'll also be playing in 14 mile per hour winds, so I understand being hesitant here. But at the end of the day, 9.5 is a lot of points for a team that should be able to move the ball even when they're trailing late in the game. It's a spot where I just think the number is too big for a passing offense this good.

Total: Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers Over 50.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Patrick Mahomes Anytime Touchdown (+600)

Austin Swaim, Senior Editor

Side: Houston Texans +9.5 (-110)

Historically, this is not a great spot to back Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. They're 1-8 against the spread (ATS) in his career laying at least 7.5 points, and C.J. Stroud is 6-1 ATS in his rookie season against teams with a winning record. With decent winds expected on Saturday, I'm expecting a low-scoring environment overall, and the 9.5 points with Houston are great value when a backdoor late score could even come in the form of a meaningless field goal to cut the margin to 7 or 8. numberFire's model is with me, expecting Houston to cover 65.6% of the time in this spot.

Total: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Under 45.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Christian McCaffrey Over 126.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-114)

Austan Kas, Senior Editor

Side: Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-122)

Total: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Under 45.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Aaron Jones Over 17.5 Receiving Yards

I think the Packers' matchup with the Niners sets up well for Aaron Jones to be active in the passing game. Not only are the Packers likely to see a negative game script, but the 49ers have conceded the sixth-most targets per game (6.9) to running backs along with the eighth-most receiving yards per game (36.8) to the position. Jones recorded exactly four grabs in each of the last three Green Bay losses he played in. I like his chances to get at least 18 receiving yards on Saturday night.

Tom Vecchio, Editor

Side: Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-122)

Total: Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens Under 43.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Mike Evans Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

When it comes to the Lions' secondary, they were torched this season to the tune of 3,081 receiving yards to opposing wide receivers, which was the third-worst in the NFL. That puts Evans in a great spot, considering he led the Buccaneers with a 24.5% target share, 41.3% air yards share, 14.3 average depth of target (aDOT), and 25.4% red zone target share. He's their main guy in the passing game, which led him to go over this 68.5 mark eight times this season.

Kenyatta Storin, Editor

Side: Green Bay Packers +9.5 (-108)

While I'm not sure the Packers will ultimately pull off the upset, they can't be overlooked after their dismantling of a strong Cowboys team last week. Jordan Love played incredibly well down the stretch, and according to numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, Love is second behind just Brock Purdy in Passing NEP per drop back this year. If Love can continue his strong play, it gives this Green Bay team a shot to keep things close. Additionally, while the raw numbers might say otherwise, numberFire ranks the 49ers' defense just 19th when adjusted for schedule, perhaps opening the door for Aaron Jones to excel again. nF's model is also showing value, giving the Packers a 63% chance to cover.

Total: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Under 45.5 (-110)

Player Prop: James Cook Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Aidan Cotter, Writer

Side: Houston Texans +9.5 (-110)

Total: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Under 45.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Cade Otton Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Cade Otton registered the highest snap rate (96%) and third-highest route rate (85%) among TEs during the regular season, but I don't think anyone saw his Wild Card performance coming. Otton led the Bucs in receptions (8), yards (89), and targets (11) in their win over Philly, and he faces another lackluster secondary on Sunday. The Lions have the third-worst schedule-adjusted pass defense, according to numberFire metrics. They let up the 12th-most yards per route and sixth-highest average depth of target to TEs during the regular season, so I expect him to be heavily involved again this weekend.

Zack Bussiere, Writer

Side: Green Bay Packers +9.5 (-108)

Total: Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers Over 50.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Mike Evans Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Among the eight remaining playoff teams, the lowest-ranked unit in action this weekend, per numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, is the Detroit Lions' pass defense. Detroit's pass defense ranks 30th and provides an advantageous matchup for the Buccaneers' passing offense, which ranks ninth. Tampa's rushing offense ranks 26th, so a pass-heavy game plan makes sense for this weekend. Evans has been in a bit of a slump and has only reached 68.5 receiving yards once since Week 14, but he should be busy this weekend with the Buccaneers listed as 6.5-point underdogs. numberFire's model projects Evans for 71.2 receiving yards, slightly above his prop of 68.5.

Gabriel Santiago, Writer

Side: Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-122)

Total: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions Under 48.5 (-104)

I am quite high on the Lions' offensive unit, but I'm holding on to concerns that the combined total here of 48.5 points is a little inflated. Through all NFL games this weekend, TB-DET features the second-highest total. Since this contest is being played indoors, there won't be any weather concerns, but I believe we'll see a slower pace of play. To this point in the season, the under has hit at a 66.7% rate for Buccaneers games. Largely, the Bucs' run defense has been a major proponent of this, as they were a top-five unit in terms of suffocating opposing ground attacks (allowing 95.3 YPG). In that same category, Detroit was also stout, allowing less ground production at 88.8 YPG. Simply, I think that a physical battle in the trenches can slow down this clash just enough for under 48.5 to convert. For reference, when these same teams played in Week 6, the Lions won in Tampa by a score of 20-6.

Player Prop: Zay Flowers Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Annie Nader, Writer

Side: Green Bay Packers +9.5 (-108)

Total: Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers Over 50.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD (+120)

Isiah Pacheco’s usage is too attractive for me to not target his touchdown prop, particularly if we can get it at plus odds. Last weekend, he ran 41.5% of routes and received 24 carries. Sure, his workload in the run game was exacerbated by a hefty Kansas City lead, which we can’t expect this weekend, but he’s become the more integral non-Mahomes Chief on offense. Pacheco was rocking with an 81.8% red zone rush share and 16.7% red zone target share in the Wild Card Round. He’s far more reliable than the shifty Chief receivers and he’s seen the end zone in five straight games.

Nick Vazquez, Writer

Side: Green Bay Packers +9.5 (-108)

Total: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Under 45.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Baker Mayfield Over 260.5 Passing Yards (-114)

The Lions have been getting torched through the air lately, allowing an average of 379.75 passing yards per game in their past four outings. That includes two games against Nick Mullens. Baker Mayfield threw for 337 yards last week against a similarly weak passing defense of the Philadelphia Eagles, and that was in mostly positive game script. The Bucs may be playing from behind a bit more in this game, which would likely see Baker have to sling it even more. With no weather concerns in this dome game, I definitely see Mayfield exceeding this total, and finishing with closer to 300 passing yards on Sunday.

Riley Thomas, Writer

Side: Houston Texans +9.5 (-110)

Total: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Under 45.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Zay Flowers Anytime Touchdown (+150)

The Ravens’ passing game may be put to the test in the Divisional Round with the Texans boasting numberFire’s second-best adjusted run defense. Baltimore attempts the most carries per game in the league, but with Houston giving up the second-fewest yards per carry, Lamar Jackson’s arm could be a bit more active. That could mean more work for the rookie standout receiver Zay Flowers, who is averaging 89.0 receiving yards over his last two games. Flowers has logged a touchdown in four of his last five games and is tied for the highest red zone target share on the team over his previous five outings (21.7%). I like Flowers’ chances of finding the end zone yet again.

Skyler Carlin Thomas, Writer

Side: Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-122)

Total: Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers Over 50.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 91.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

There aren't many more wide receivers who are more consistent than Amon-Ra St. Brown. The No. 1 target for Jared Goff has registered at least 92 receiving yards in 11 of his 16 games this season. The All-Pro wideout has reached this number in four of his last five outings, as well. The matchup is also a positive one for St. Brown as the Buccaneers are 28th in receptions allowed (240), 30th in receiving yards allowed (3,223), and 25th in yards per route run allowed (1.75) to wide receivers. St. Brown also logged 12 receptions for 124 yards and a touchdown on 15 targets in Week 6 when the Lions and the Buccaneers faced each other. In a must-win game at home, St. Brown is poised for at least 92 receiving yards on Sunday.

Scott Edwards, Writer

Side: Houston Texans +9.5 (-110)

Total: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Under 45.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (-115)

Josh Allen is playing in the biggest game of his NFL career on Sunday, meaning that he's going to do everything that it takes to get the win and take down the Chiefs. With no Gabe Davis, he's going to need to rely on his legs all the more to move the ball down the field. Allen has recorded a rushing score in six of his last seven games. Since Joe Brady took over as the offensive coordinator, they've put a focus on Allen running the ball -- especially when they're in the red zone. If the Bills want to win, Allen will need to be heroic once more.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.