NFL DFS First Look: Initial Observations for the Week 5 Main Slate

Last week's FanDuel NFL DFS main slate is barely in the rearview mirror, but it's never too early to look ahead to the next main slate.

With that in mind, let's peek ahead to this coming Sunday's main slate and see what early-week observations stand out.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL DFS First Look at the Week 5 Main Slate Salaries

Chase Brown Is Closing the Gap Between Him and Zack Moss

Entering Week 4, it appeared that Zack Moss was cementing himself as the clear No. 1 back for the Cincinnati Bengals. Through the first three weeks, Moss was handling 75.7% of the RB snaps and 18.3 adjusted opportunities per game (carries plus 2x targets), compared to Chase Brown seeing only 24.9% of the RB snaps with 8.7 adjusted opportunities per game, via NextGenStats.

Despite the early-season usage, Moss logged a season-low 58.1% snap rate and 23.0 adjusted opportunities while Brown earned a 41.9% snap rate and 21 adjusted opportunities in Sunday's win over the Carolina Panthers. While both backs found the end zone and scored 15-plus FD points in Week 4, Brown was much more efficient with 1.62 rushing yards over expected per attempt and a 53.3% rushing success rate.

Meanwhile, Moss tallied -0.36 rushing yards over expected per attempt and a dismal 13.3% rushing success rate against the Panthers' woeful run defense.

As a result of Sunday's performance, Moss has seen his salary drop to $6,600 from $6,900, and Brown has gone from $5,600 to $6,100 for the Week 5 main slate. Given that Brown has looked more explosive, we could continue to see a shift in the backfield workload when Cincy squares off against the Baltimore Ravens this week.

Packers Pass-Catchers Get a Salary Boost with Jordan Love Back

Jordan Love returned to action for the Green Bay Packers in Week 4, and he notched an impressive 34.2 FD points against a stout Minnesota Vikings defense. With the Packers now throwing the ball more than they were with Malik Willis under center, the Green Bay pass-catchers have all gotten a salary boost for the Week 5 main slate.

While playing from behind certainly aided Love's DFS outlook on Sunday, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks each registered 22-plus FD points versus the Vikings. Even Tucker Kraft recorded 14.3 FD points despite losing a fumble late in the game.

Upon Love's return, Reed goes from $6,300 to $7,200, Wicks makes the leap from $4,600 to $5,900, Kraft moves from $4,800 to $5,300, and Romeo Doubs sees an increase to $5,600 from $5,700 in Week 5. Considering that Christian Watson suffered an ankle injury that could land him on injured reserve, this is now a more condensed aerial attack to target.

Even with the salary increases for Green Bay's pass-catchers, they draw a positive matchup against a Los Angeles Rams team that is ranked 31st in numberFire's scheduled-adjusted pass defense.

Diontae Johnson Continues to Rise in Salary with Andy Dalton at QB

It didn't take long for Diontae Johnson to get accustomed to catching passes from Andy Dalton as the veteran wideout recorded 22.2 FD points in Week 3, totaling 122 receiving yards and a TD on 8 catches while garnering an elite 37.8% target share. Johnson went from being a WR with a salary in the low $5,000s to possess a $6,200 salary in Week 4.

In the loss to the Bengals on Sunday, Johnson had another notable outing with 7 receptions for 83 yards and another TD to score 17.8 FD points. The biggest positive for Johnson was the fact he remained the clear primary target for Dalton, earning a healthy 33.3% target share in Week 4.

Given the rapport Johnson and Dalton have developed, the No. 1 WR for the Panthers is now carrying a $7,100 salary for the Week 5 main slate. Not many WRs are getting the usage Johnson currently is, and Carolina is going to be playing from behind in plenty of games despite the QB change.

While Johnson has excelled in back-to-back weeks, he's faced two of the bottom nine teams in schedule-adjusted pass defense with Dalton starting. As for Week 5, Johnson will face a Chicago Bears squad that boasts the fifth-best schedule-adjusted pass defense.

Nico Collins Deservedly Makes Another Jump in Salary

How many WRs are truly playing better than Nico Collins since the start of the 2023 campaign? After emerging as the go-to target for C.J. Stroud a season ago, it's been more of the same for Collins to begin the 2024 season.

During Sunday's come-from-behind win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, Collins tallied a slate-high 30.1 FD points with 12 receptions for 151 yards and a score. On the season, Collins is now leading the Texans in target share (29.3%), air yards share (47.9%), yards per route run (3.33), and average depth of target (12.2).

Collins was holding a $7,700 salary in Week 4, but he's now gotten a massive increase to $8,800 entering the Week 5 main slate. Only CeeDee Lamb ($9.400) and Ja'Marr Chase ($9,300) are being given higher salaries than Collins this week.

While Collins may not be considered a WR in the same class as Lamb and Chase, he deserves to be given how he's performed in the last two seasons. Even though Stefon Diggs has been a valuable addition to the Texans, Collins is rightfully getting a salary increase ahead of a tough matchup versus the Buffalo Bills -- Diggs' former team.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.