NFL Conference Championship Round Expert Betting Picks and Predictions

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop. They'll share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they're on that bet.

All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Note: Betting lines and numberFire's player projections may change after this article is published.

NFL Expert Picks for Conference Championship Round

Jim Sannes, Digital Media Managing Editor

Side: Baltimore Ravens to Win by Exactly 3 Points (+900)

Total: Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers Over 51.5 (-110)

The total here is in the alt market for 49ers versus Lions because 51 is a significant key number, and I want to have a bet that wins in the event the game lands right there. It's worth laying -128 there (56.1% implied odds) versus the -110 (52.4%) at 51.5 as 4.3% of all NFL games this year have landed on 51 exactly. Those odds should go up in a game where my model has the total at 53.4. So, I understand if you want to go with the baseline number of 51.5, but to me, jumping down to 50.5 is the right play here in a game where I expect the 49ers alone to put up a hefty point total.

Player Prop: Justice Hill Over 7.5 Rush Attempts (-104)

Austin Swaim, Senior Editor

Side: Detroit Lions +7.5 (-114)

Total: Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens Under 44.5 (-112)

Player Prop: Christian McCaffrey Under 86.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

The strength of the Lions' defense is what should allow them to stay in this game. While still leaning toward the over in general, Detroit's rush defense is eighth-best in the league, per numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. If they can simply keep Christian McCaffrey to human status on the ground, it'll force Brock Purdy to beat them, and he's shown he can't. Purdy posted 0.05 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back in three games where McCaffrey failed to exceed 60 rushing yards this year; it was a superb 0.44 in all others. McCaffrey's under correlates extremely well with the Lions keeping things close.

Austan Kas, Senior Editor

Side: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-120)

Total: Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers Over 51.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Taking the over on Gibbs' receiving yards prop is also a bet on the Lions to lose, although Gibbs can still cash this in a Detroit win. In the Lions' last three losses, Gibbs logged snap rates of 62%, 63% and 71% -- compared to snap rates of 34% and 36% through the Lions' two playoff wins. Gibbs, however, has still gone for 40 and 43 receiving yards the past two weeks. San Fran permitted the fifth-most catches and eighth-most yards to running backs this season. Gibbs' after-the-catch ability gives him a shot to rack up 23-plus receiving yards in just a couple grabs, and he should be on the field plenty if the Lions see a negative game script.

Tom Vecchio, Editor

Side: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-120)

Total: Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens Under 44.5 (-112)

Player Prop: Brandon Aiyuk Over 5.5 Receptions (+124)

Throughout the regular season, the Lions' secondary allowed 3,081 receiving yards to opposing wide receivers, which was the third-most in the NFL. That trend continued in the playoffs when they allowed 181 receiving yards to Puka Nacua in the Wild Card Round and 147 receiving yards to Mike Evans in the Divisional Round. During the regular season, Aiyuk led the 49ers with a 24.0% target share, 39.7% air yard share, ran a route on 85.2% of dropbacks, had a 14.1-yard average depth of target, and had the fourth-highest (14.5%) red zone target share.

Kenyatta Storin, Editor

Side: Detroit Lions +7.5 (-114)

While it's fair to wonder whether Detroit's defense can hold up against San Francisco, their strength is stopping the run (7th in schedule-adjusted rush defense, per numberFire), which could put more on Brock Purdy's plate than the Niners typically like. For as efficient as he's been this season, Purdy looked shaky in the Divisional Round, and the Lions are good at generating pressure. Even if Detroit has a tough time stopping San Francisco's offense, they can hang in a shootout as they're numberFire's fourth-best adjusted offense. Maybe it's not enough to pull off the upset, but keeping this within a touchdown is doable. nF's model projects the Lions to cover just under 60% of the time.

Total: Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens Under 44.5 (-112)

Player Prop: Brock Purdy Over 20.5 Pass Completions (-118)

Aidan Cotter, Writer

Side: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-120)

Total: Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers Over 51.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Brock Purdy Over 274.5 Passing Yards (-110)

For as rough as Brock Purdy looked at times last week, he still finished with 252 passing yards despite sloppy conditions. The forecast looks much better this week, as does the matchup. Detroit has the third-worst pass defense in the NFL, per numberFire's metrics, and they've given up an outrageous 373.6 yards per game over their last five. Purdy's in a nice spot to bounce back.

Zack Bussiere, Writer

Side: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-120)

Total: Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers Over 51.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Brock Purdy Over 20.5 Pass Completions (-118)

Per numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, the lowest-ranked unit remaining in the playoffs is the Lions' pass defense, which ranks 30th. That's a perfect matchup for the 49ers' passing offense, which ranks first. The Lions' offense ranks fourth, and in a game with a 51.5 total, I expect the 49ers to have to pass throughout this contest. Over the' Lions last 10 games, opposing signal-callers are averaging 22.1 pass completions per game. Over their last five games, they are averaging 25.8 completions per game. numberFire's model projects Purdy for 22.28 completions on Sunday, above his line of 20.5.

Gabriel Santiago, Writer

Side: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-120)

Total: Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens Under 44.5 (-112)

Player Prop: Patrick Mahomes Under 243.5 Passing Yards (-110)

With Mahomes having a down year by his standards, I see the KC quarterback falling short of his passing yards prop this weekend in Maryland. Through Mahomes' most recent half-dozen starts, he has thrown for fewer than 244 yards three times (including last Sunday in Buffalo). This week, the reigning MVP is faced with the arduous task of taking on the NFL's No. 1 defense. The Ravens were best in the league in both yards allowed per passing attempt (5.4) and total sacks (60) this past regular season. When you glance over Baltimore's defensive lineup of Roquan Smith, Patrick Queen, Kyle Hamilton, Justin Madubuike and Jadeveon Clowney (among others), their NFL-leading figures are easy to understand. Oh, there is also a high likelihood that this contest is played in wet conditions -- not ideal for slinging around the pigskin.

Annie Nader, Writer

Side: Detroit Lions +7.5 (-114)

Total: Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers Over 51.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime Touchdown (+145)

With a 21.5-point implied team total on tap for the Lions this weekend, I can’t help but love these touchdown odds for Gibbs. He has seen the end zone a whopping eight times in his last seven games. In that span, Gibbs has been rocking with a 47.4% red zone rush share and 13.6% red zone target share while running 45.6% of routes. After averaging 8.2 yards per rush attempt in the Divisional Round, Gibbs should be a priority this weekend as Detroit looks to exploit San Francisco’s weaker-than-average rush D.

Nick Vazquez, Writer

Side: Detroit Lions +7.5 (-114)

Total: Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens Under 44.5 (-112)

Player Prop: Lamar Jackson Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Lamar Jackson cleared this number in three of his last five games, including rushing for 100 yards last week. The narrative that quarterbacks run more in the playoffs has some logic behind it, as guys like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have rushed for more than their season averages in their two playoff games this season. Jackson averages 93.4 rushing yards per game in his five-career playoff starts. Speaking of Allen, he had 72 rushing yards against the Chiefs last week, and KC allowed the 10th-most rushing yards to QBs in the regular season and didn't have to face the leader in QB rushing yards in Jackson.

Riley Thomas, Writer

Side: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-120)

Total: Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens Under 44.5 (-112)

Player Prop: Brandon Aiyuk 6+ Receptions (+110)

Brandon Aiyuk’s production has slipped over his last two games with averages of only 3.0 receptions and 30.0 receiving yards per game. I believe this is Aiyuk’s week to feast as he has a favorable matchup against the Lions’ secondary -- numberFire’s third-worst schedule-adjusted pass defense. According to numberFire’s projections, Aiyuk is in line for the second-most FanDuel points among receivers for the Conference Championship Round. The 49ers’ wideout has also received at least six targets in three of his last four games. After Brock Purdy post 0.11 expected points added per dropback (EPA/DB) in the Divisional Round, San Francisco’s passing offense should have plenty of success this week, which points to a solid day for Aiyuk.

Skyler Carlin Thomas, Writer

Side: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-120)

Total: Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens Under 44.5 (-112)

Player Prop: Brandon Aiyuk Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Deebo Samuel enters Sunday's matchup with a questionable tag due to a shoulder injury, which leaves the door open for Aiyuk to have a massive performance. Aiyuk is averaging 80.8 receiving yards per game while leading the 49ers in target share (23.5%), air yards share (38.7%), and yards per route run (3.03). On the flip side, the Lions present an extremely favorable matchup for the talented wideout. Detroit's defense is allowing the most receiving yards (3,606) and the second-most yards per route run (1.90) to wide receivers this season. Lastly, the Lions have also given up 141-plus receiving yards and a touchdown to a receiver in five consecutive games.

Scott Edwards, Writer

Side: Detroit Lions +7.5 (-114)

Total: Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers Over 51.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Brandon Aiyuk Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

It's going to be Aiyuk's time to shine on Sunday night. He is expected to be the top option in the receiving game with Deebo Samuel questionable due to a shoulder injury. Aiyuk has a real chance to shine against a Detroit defense that ranked 30th in stopping the pass, per numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. Aiyuk was kept way too quiet last weekend, going for only 32 receiving yards on 3 receptions. I'm taking the over on 80.5 receiving yards for this Sunday thanks to the Lions letting both Puka Nacua and Mike Evans go for 140-plus on back-to-back weekends.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.