NBA Picks Today 5/9/26: NBA Predictions for Pistons-Cavaliers and Thunder-Lakers

Top NBA Picks at a Glance

• Cavaliers -4.5
• Lakers +8.5

The NBA postseason offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. Our NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Predictions, Picks and Best Bets for Today

Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers -- Cavs -4.5

Game 3 | 3:00 PM ET | DET leads 2-0

Context & Series State

The Detroit Pistons have been ruthlessly efficient in the first two games, winning Game 1 111-101 and Game 2 107-97 to take a commanding 2-0 series lead. The Pistons have dictated both games with relentless defensive perimeter pressure and Cade Cunningham's composed offensive orchestration.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been outplayed in both contests, plagued by turnovers, a poor free throw disparity, and road inefficiency that has become the defining storyline of their entire postseason. The Cavaliers are 0-5 on the road this postseason -- a significant collapse compared to their 25-16 regular-season road record.

The series shifts to Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse today, and that is a more impactful variable than the market may be accounting for. Cleveland is one of the best home teams in the Eastern Conference — they have been one of the best second-half teams in the league, covering the second-half spread in 65% of their home games this season, showing they deliver at home in key moments.

Despite the defeats in Games 1 and 2, the Cavs were right there in both in the second half. I think homecourt helps them get over the hump and win a game.

Donovan Mitchell and the Cleveland Counter-Punch

Donovan Mitchell is averaging 27.9 PPG on the season and 28.6 over his last 10. Against Detroit specifically, he put up 32.5 PPG across two regular-season meetings. His scoring is built across multiple channels: 14.1 drives per game at a 58.8% clip from the lane, plus 40.8% shooting on catch-and-shoot threes.

Mitchell's drive game on Detroit's defense is a blueprint that Cleveland has not fully executed in two road games — but at home, in front of a hostile Rocket Mortgage crowd, Mitchell should be aggressive early and often.

James Harden's last 10 games before the series saw him average 26.4 points and 8.0 assists — up 5.9 from his season number — functioning as both scorer and primary creator. He has committed costly turnovers in both games in Detroit, but Harden with home-court composure is a quality secondary scoring threat. Evan Mobley's length and Jarrett Allen's interior presence add dimensions that can give the Pistons fits.

BEST BET: Cavaliers -4.5

Home court, desperation, and a historically backed tendency for 0-2 teams to win Game 3 at home all point to the Cavaliers covering.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers -- Lakers +8.5

Game 3 | 8:30 PM ET | OKC leads 2-0

Context & Series State

The Oklahoma City Thunder have won Games 1 and 2 by an average of 18 points. The Thunder are as dominant as any team in recent playoff history at this juncture — undefeated through six postseason games after sweeping Phoenix and winning both games in this series. There is just very little Los Angeles can do against OKC, especially with Luka Doncic still sidelined with his hamstring injury.

The Los Angeles Lakers' best player in this series has been LeBron James, who scored 27 points on 12-of-17 shooting in Game 1. But while LeBron was magnificent in Game 1, he didn't get much help — particularly from Austin Reaves, who finished with just eight points on 3-of-16 shooting and is shooting 30.4% from the field and 11.8% from three in his three games this postseason. But Reaves bounced back in a big way in Game 2, netting 31 points on 10-for-16 shooting. A fully healthy Reaves makes LA's offense a lot more dangerous.

The Key Variable: Spread at -8.5

The Thunder are -8.5 favorites for Game 3, with the total sitting at 211.5. The win probability strongly favors Oklahoma City, but the spread is a different story. Eight and a half points is a lot to give a Lakers team that will be desperate to avoid an 0-3 hole.

LeBron James has recorded a triple-double in two of his last three Game 3s when trailing 0-2 in a series — a historical pattern that underscores his ability to elevate individual performance with his back against the wall.

BEST BET: Los Angeles Lakers +8.5

With James, Reaves and the Lakers in survival mode, they should come out swinging, and while I don't think they have enough in the tank to get the W, I like them to cover.

NBA Betting -- Frequently Asked Questions

What does the point spread mean in NBA betting?

The point spread is a margin set by oddsmakers to level the playing field between two unevenly matched teams. For example, if the Golden State Warriors are listed at -7.5, they need to win by 8 or more points for a bet on them to cash. Conversely, a bet on their opponent at +7.5 wins if that team loses by 7 or fewer points — or wins outright.

What is the moneyline?

The moneyline is a straight-up bet on which team wins the game, with no spread involved. Favorites carry a negative number (e.g., -200, meaning you must risk $200 to win $100), while underdogs carry a positive number (e.g., +170, meaning a $100 bet returns $170 profit).

How does the over/under (game total) work?

Oddsmakers set a projected combined score for the game, and bettors wager on whether the actual total will go over or under that number. For instance, if the total is set at 224.5 points, an over bet wins if both teams combine for 225 or more points. NBA totals can swing based on pace of play, rest situations, and injuries, so it's worth tracking those factors before placing a total bet.

What are NBA player props?

Player props are bets tied to an individual player's statistical performance rather than the game's outcome. Common prop bet markets include points scored, assists, rebounds, three-pointers made, and combinations of those stats.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.