NBA Northwest Division Best Bets: Jazz in the Groove, Thunder Claps With Flashy Core

Predicting NBA win totals is among the most popular future bets. With odds available for all 30 teams, there are bound to be terrific wagers available. Let's break down win totals by division, focusing today on the Western Conference's Northwest Division.

The Pacific Division dominated the Western Conference last season with all five teams making the playoffs. The Northwest had the last laugh, though, as the Denver Nuggets won their first NBA title. But the Northwest Division was lacking outside of the Nuggets. The Minnesota Timberwolves, who were a first-round exit, were the only other team in the Northwest to earn a postseason berth. However, this is an up-and-coming division with young teams looking to break through.

The Portland Trail Blazers could be the only squad with a dull future after trading Damian Lillard. Of course, the Nuggets are the reigning champions and are tied for the second-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals (+550), per FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA Finals odds. The Timberwolves are led by an MVP sleeper in Anthony Edwards, who is listed at +3500 when looking at FanDuel's NBA MVP odds. The Utah Jazz and Oklahoma City Thunder could engineer a turnaround season for the division as both teams come off promising 2022-23 campaigns.

Now that we've established how each Northwest team is trending, it's time to dig into the best win total bets in the division.

Utah Jazz Over 35.5 Wins (-132)

The Jazz were one of the NBA's pleasant surprises in the 2022-23 season. They spent most of the season in the play-in picture, featuring one of the Association's most explosive offenses. However, Utah fell short of the Play-In Tournament with a 2-9 record over the last 11 games of the regular season. After falling three games short of the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference, the Jazz have postseason aspirations for the upcoming season.

According to FanDuel's NBA playoff odds, Utah is a long shot to make the playoffs at +420. Despite that, participating in the Play-In Tournament is a reasonable goal. The Jazz never went more than three games under .500 over the first 60 games of the 2022-23 season. If they can replicate that in 2023-24 but finish better, Utah could certainly make the Play-In Tournament.

When looking at NBA win total odds, Utah has a projected win total of 35.5. Most of the money has come in on the over (-132) compared to the under at +108. The Jazz will likely need the over to make the Play-In Tournament. They grooved to a 37-45 finish last season. After adding three promising rookies in the first round of the 2023 NBA Draft, the Jazz should be able to at least match their 2022-23 win total, and I think Utah's offense makes the over a favorable wager.

Offense Yet to Reach Its Peak

Scoring was Utah's clear strength last season, led by the trio of Lauri Markkanen -- who averaged a career-high 25.6 points per game (PPG) -- Jordan Clarkson (20.8 PPG), and Collin Sexton (14.3 PPG). Markkanen (118.0), Clarkson (117.9), and Sexton (117.9) also led the team in offensive rating. All three players are back, forming the Jazz's three-headed scoring monster.

Utah's returning production doesn't stop there, though. The Jazz are returning nearly their entire roster, including key reserves. Kelly Olynyk, Ochai Agbaji, and Kris Dunn are solid players who should continue to aid the offense. Olynyk was a vital role player last season, averaging 12.5 PPG while boasting a 117.1 offensive rating.

Agbaji -- the former first-round pick -- was up and down throughout his rookie year but improved late in the regular season, averaging 14.2 PPG over the final 14 games.

Dunn -- the former top-five pick from the 2016 NBA Draft -- was another surprise contributor, as he averaged 13.4 PPG while shooting a blistering 55.7% from the field over the final 10 games of the season. Few saw this coming as Dunn had struggled to carve out a consistent role throughout his professional career. Now, Dunn has seemed to find a home in Utah and is even contending for the starting point guard spot.

With plenty of returning production, the offense should remain a dangerous unit. The Jazz finished ninth in offensive rating last season. Another top-10 finish is certainly in the cards, especially with first-round rookies Keyonte George and Brice Sensabaugh joining the fray -- both of whom were talented scoring prospects. Utah also landed John Collins in a trade with the Atlanta Hawks. Collins stumbled last season, with his scoring average dropping to 13.1 PPG, but he has promising potential after averaging 19.5 PPG and 21.6 PPG in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons.

While the offense remains in great shape, we can't ignore potential concerns surrounding Utah.

Will Markkanen or Defense Miss the Mark?

Markkanen's production could be one of the biggest question marks for the upcoming season. Utah needs the 7-foot forward to remain in All-Star form. He was the most important contributor of last year's squad, earning his first All-Star bid while averaging a career-high 25.6 PPG. He also boasted a career-best 49.9 field goal percentage (FG%). However, these numbers were major jumps for Markkanen; his previous career-high was 18.7 PPG, so we'll have to see if he can keep up that level of output.

In addition, he finished 25th in FiveThirtyEight's offensive RAPTOR, which suggests his scoring output was no fluke. Markkanen further proved this by averaging 29.1 PPG in his final 12 games of the 2022-23 season. The Jazz need their star player healthy, though. The Finnish forward missed 9 of the final 12 games, which certainly contributed to Utah falling short of the Play-In Tournament.

Still, there is no guarantee that Markkanen can maintain this level of production. His breakout 2022-23 season kind of came out of nowhere. Before last season, Markkanen had yet to reach a 20.0 PPG average -- jumping to over 25.0 PPG was a major surprise.

With that said, we cannot ignore his excellent efficiency. Plus, John Collins could lighten the load on Markkanen, which could further aid Markkanen's shooting numbers. If Collins hits the ground running, the Jazz can afford a slight drop off from Markkanen.

Utah's defense is also among the top question marks; the unit finished 23rd in defensive rating in the 2022-23 season. On the flip side, opponents had a 54.1 effective field goal percentage (eFG%) against Utah -- the 14th-best mark among defenses. The poor defensive rating was partially due to the pace of play. Opponents averaged 91.6 field goal attempts per game (third-worst).

The defense could take a step in the right direction after adding Taylor Hendricks in the 2023 NBA Draft. The 6-foot-8 forward should add defensive versatility with his 7-foot-1 wingspan and athleticism.

Ultimately, the Jazz are a roster built on scoring. Perhaps the below-average defense and lack of efficiency will prevent a playoff appearance. But I like the over for the Jazz. The offense improved in the offseason, which should keep Utah relevant in the play-in race.

Oklahoma City Thunder Over 44.5 Wins (+100)

The Thunder could be the most intriguing team in the Northwest Division. According to FanDuel's NBA division odds, Oklahoma City has the third-shortest odds to win the Northwest (+600) -- not far behind the Timberwolves (+550). The Thunder are also viewed as a potential playoff team, listed at -128 to make the postseason.

OKC held a 46-108 record over the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons. The Thunder had low expectations entering the 2022-23 campaign with a projected win total of 23.5. They smashed that number, going 40-42. Oklahoma City was one win away from earning the No. 8 seed in the playoffs but lost 120-95 in the final play-in game against their divisional rival, Minnesota.

Regardless, last season was an overwhelming success for the Thunder, and now they have legitimate expectations. OKC's win total sits at 44.5 -- a 21-game increase compared to last year's preseason win total. Of course, this accounts for the Thunder's improvements and the addition of young players with high ceilings.

The over would require Oklahoma City to increase their win total by at least five wins. That's a tall task for a young team in the West. I am slightly partial to the Thunder, but how can you not be? This was one of the more entertaining teams in the NBA last season. I will continue to ride the hype by taking the over. We have the evidence to back it up, too.

Electric Core Taking Shape

First and foremost, OKC has a potential MVP contender in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He was immense last season with a career-high 31.4 PPG paired with 5.5 assists per game (APG), and 4.8 rebounds per game (RPG).

Gilgeous-Alexander took on the alpha dog role with a 32.5% usage rate -- the sixth-highest mark among qualifying players. SGA also ranked 11th in offensive RAPTOR and 16th in wins above replacement (WAR). The 25-year-old guard was already an emerging star, but after earning his first All-Star appearance with elite numbers, Gilgeous-Alexander has become one of the Association's most dynamic guards.

The Thunder certainly have their go-to player. SGA's peers will likely decide Oklahoma City's ceiling, though.

Jalen Williams finished second in Rookie of the Year voting last season, fueled by 14.1 PPG and a 52.1 FG%. Josh Giddey enjoyed a second-year leap, taking his 41.9 FG% from his rookie season to 48.2%. Giddey's PPG also improved from 12.5 to 16.6. Isaiah Joe broke out in his third season, averaging 9.5 PPG while shooting a lethal 40.9% on three-pointers. In addition, Joe led the team in offensive and net ratings.

Clearly, the Thunder's core is taking shape. SGA, Giddey, Williams, and Joe are all under 26. The core could continue to improve, particularly Giddey and Williams. Help is on the way, too, as former No. 2 pick Chet Holmgren is healthy for the upcoming season.

Holmgren Can Be a Big Help

Holmgren missed last season due to a foot injury, but he's ready to go and has displayed his versatility ahead of the 2023-24 season.

The former Gonzaga Bulldogs forward poured in 21 points with a 70.0 FG% in 16 minutes of play in Monday's preseason game against the San Antonio Spurs.

Holmgren's rebounding and shot-blocking could make huge impacts. Both departments were weaknesses for OKC last season; the Thunder ranked 22nd in both defensive rebounds per game and blocks per game.

OKC also finished 24th in eFG% last season. This is yet another category that Holmgren could aid as he shot 60.7% from the field in college.

Overall, the addition of Holmgren cannot be understated.

We know the hype behind Victor Wembanyama, who is +130 to win Rookie of the Year, per FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA award odds. FanDuel gives Holmgren a shot at the award (+270), though . The 7-foot center could improve OKC's rebounding, interior defense, and shooting efficiency.

The Thunder are not going to become world beaters overnight, and it's unlikely that Holmgren will immediately become one of the NBA's best big men. However, we can't ignore the roster's obvious improvements with Holmgren added to the rotation. Oklahoma City held the second-worst defensive rebounding percentage at 72.9%. Adding a quality big man could be enough to reach at least 45 wins.

Do you think you know which NBA teams will succeed or falter this season? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA win total odds market to bet any team's win total with America's Number One Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.