NBA Betting Picks for Wednesday 1/31/24: The Heat Look to Reignite Against the Kings
The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
NBA Best Bets
Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers
Under 231.5 (-110)
The result of the Detroit Pistons against the Cleveland Cavaliers could already be a foregone conclusion, as Detroit still carries the worst record in the NBA (6-40) while Cleveland is 9-1 over their last 10 games. Additionally, numberFire's game projections give the Cavaliers a 90.7% chance to win. The Cavs moneyline offers little profit at -820, and picking a side on the 12.5-point spread could be difficult.
I trust Cleveland's surging defense, which now has the second-best mark in defensive rating. Opponents are averaging only 102.1 points per game (PPG) while shooting 43.9% from the field over the Cavaliers' past 10 contests. They also play at the NBA's 10th-slowest pace and have done an excellent job of limiting opponents' field goal attempts at 85.4 over the last 10 games. For reference, the Miami Heat average the second-fewest shots per game in the league at 85.3.
The Pistons' strength on offense has been attacking the rim with the eighth-most points in the paint per game (52.2). With 52.0 points in the paint each contest over the last four games, Detroit has been right on par with their season average. They've even gotten some dominant showings from Jalen Duren, who averages 14.1 PPG and 11.9 rebounds per game (RPG), as he comes off a 22-point and 21-rebound performance.
Detroit could be out of luck for Wednesday's matchup, though. Cleveland has one of the best paint defenses in the Association, giving up the fifth-fewest points in the paint while touting the third-best mark in opponent two-point percentage. Evan Mobley (109.5 defensive rating) and Jarrett Allen (111.6 defensive rating) have been an elite defensive pairing in the frontcourt. Mobley just returned from injury on Monday, so he could see limited minutes once again. Dean Wade has filled into the frontcourt nicely when needed thanks to his 107.4 defensive rating.
So what's the moral of the story? The Pistons could be poised for a poor offensive showing due to the Cavs' elite interior defense. Detroit also totals the 2nd-most turnovers per game, and they have the 10th-best defensive rebounding percentage compared to Cleveland carrying the 5th-best mark in the category. Winning the possession battle will only allow the Cavaliers to control the pace even more, leading to a slow-paced, low-scoring contest.
Chicago Bulls at Charlotte Hornets
Bulls -4.5 (-112)
The Charlotte Hornets carry the third-worst record in the Eastern Conference at 10-35, and they show few signs of improving with a 2-8 record over the last 10 games. Plus, the Hornets are dealing with a slew of injuries, which includes LaMelo Ball (team-high 32.7% usage rate), Gordon Hayward (14.5 PPG), and Mark Williams (12.7 PPG; 9.7 RPG). All three players will likely be out, and Miles Bridges (20.9 PPG) is probable with an elbow injury.
This is one of the NBA's worst teams (last in numberFire's power rankings), and they are dealing with injuries to key players. The pick is practically jumping up and down at this point. I'm going against the Hornets by taking the visiting Chicago Bulls to cover the spread.
The Bulls are 5-5 outright and against the spread (ATS) over their last 10 games and are only 1-3 over the past 4. Still, Chicago holds several advantages.
First off, Charlotte has the 3rd-worst offensive rating in the NBA while the Bulls have the 14th-best defensive rating. The Hornets don't really rank highly in any notable scoring category; averaging the 19th-most points in the paint could be the best that Charlotte has to offer. Chicago gives up the fewest points in the paint. The Hornets' offense could be a disaster waiting to happen.
With the eighth-worst offensive rating, the Bulls can be hard-pressed to put points on the board. However, Chicago has picked up some steam over the last five games by shooting 50.1%, and DeMar DeRozan is averaging 24.5 PPG with a 54.8% field goal percentage (FG%) over his last four. Charlotte has the worst mark in opponent effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and third-worst mark in opponent FG%.
This pick feels pretty simple. The Hornets are a mess with too many injuries, and the Bulls could have enough advantages for a cover.
Sacramento Kings at Miami Heat
Heat Moneyline (-118)
All bad things must eventually come to an end; losing streaks won't go on forever. The Miami Heat are hoping their brutal seven-game losing streak will finally come to an end on Wednesday against the Sacramento Kings.
Miami's situation is quite ironic. After acquiring Terry Rozier via trade, the Heat were viewed in a much better light for the postseason. Yet, they are currently on their worst stretch of the season, and Rozier is averaging only 11.8 PPG with a -32.0 Net Rating over his first four games in South Beach. The offense is in a cold spell with only 101.7 PPG and a 43.0 FG% during the losing streak.
Fortunately, Miami is hosting a mediocre defense tonight, as the Kings have the 13th-worst defensive rating. With Sacramento giving up the ninth-most three-point shots per game while opponents shoot 39.1% from deep (second-worst for defense), the Heat could lean on their three-point attack. Miami has the seventh-best three-point percentage in the Association, and they've still been efficient from deep over the last three games at 38.3%.
The Kings' worst defenders are also wings, which includes Harrison Barnes (117.9 defensive rating) and Malik Monk (117.4 defensive rating). After posting 21 points while making 4 of 6 three-pointers (66.7%) in his last game, Rozier could be in line for another big game. Tyler Herro (21.5 PPG) also fares well from three, as he is shooting a career-high 40.3%. The Heat's backcourt could be worth backing for FanDuel's 30% Profit Boost for any NBA wager taking place tonight.
As Dorothy says in "The Wizard of Oz," there's no place like home. This could be the exact medicine that Miami needs to end their losing streak. Sacramento is also playing in their fourth consecutive away game; lengthy road trips can quickly lead to tired legs and weary travelers.
numberFire's game projections are also slightly leaning on the Heat moneyline, giving Miami a 54.4% chance of winning.
If you’re betting on any NBA action on January 31st, you can take advantage of FanDuel Sportsbook’s 30% Profit Boost. See the promotions page for more information.
Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.
Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.