NBA Betting Picks for Thursday 2/29/24: Will Atlanta Leap to Third Straight Win?
The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
NBA Best Bets
Golden State Warriors at New York Knicks
Over 222.5 (-110)
The Golden State Warriors and New York Knicks are trending in completely opposite directions. The Warriors are 8-2 over their last 10 games while the Knicks have gone 3-7 during the span. During New York's cold streak, the offense has faltered with only 104.9 points per game (PPG) over the previous eight contests while shooting 44.3% from the field and 35.7% from three. The under is 7-3 in the Knicks' last 10 games, partially in thanks to the scoring struggles.
The under is not only on the shoulders of poor shooting, though. New York has a solid defense with the 11th-best rating in the Association that holds opponents to only 109.9 PPG (fourth-fewest). The Knicks will be looking to slow an exceptional offense tonight as the Warriors have the ninth-best offensive rating.
As you probably guessed, Golden State continues to shoot the three at a high clip with the third-most attempts per game. The Warriors could be like a kid in a candy score against New York's perimeter defense as opponents have converted 47.5% of their three-pointers in the last three games against the Knicks. Opponents have also averaged 15.7 makes during this span -- which is slightly above Golden State's season average of 15.1 (second-best).
With that said, I believe the under trend will be snapped for both teams. That's right -- for both teams -- as the under is 8-2 over the Warriors' last 10 contests.
Overall, I'm mostly leaning on Golden State's offense that has surpassed 120 points in 7 of the last 10 games. The under has managed to thrive due to high totals like the 245 total against the Washington Wizards on February 27th. The Warriors haven't had a total this low since 221 against the Houston Rockets on November 20th.
The battle on the glass is also pretty even with both teams among the top four in offensive rebounding percentage and top half in defensive rebounding percentage. This should prevent New York from completely dominating the boards, leading to a torturous slow pace as they carry the slowest tempo in the NBA.
The Knicks rank in the top half of three-point makes and attempts and in three-point percentage. Meanwhile, Golden State gives up the eighth-most three-point shots per game.
Going over 222.5 shouldn't be too much to ask, especially if the Warriors are poised for a high-score outing.
Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets
Hawks Moneyline (+108)
Things are looking dire for the Atlanta Hawks following news of Trae Young's hand surgery that will likely keep him out for at least a month. The Hawks can probably kiss their playoff hopes goodbye as FanDuel's NBA playoff odds have Atlanta making the postseason at +420. With the Hawks in a dangerous spot, why in my right mind would I back Atlanta as an underdog on the road? I'm glad you asked; let's dig in.
Since Young sustained the injury on February 23rd, the Hawks are 2-0 outright and against the spread (ATS). Frankly, neither game has been close as Atlanta was favored by only two points in both contests; they beat the Orlando Magic 109-92 on February 25th and the Utah Jazz 124-97 on February 27th. That's an average margin of +22. Not too shabby with Young out of the lineup. Keep in mind, Young leads the team with a 30.4% usage rate and ranks second in the league with 10.8 assists per game (APG).
So, how have the Hawks soared without Young? They are getting excellent play from their wings, which includes the likes of Bogdan Bogdanovic (16.8 PPG), Jalen Johnson (15.8 PPG), De'Andre Hunter (15.3 PPG), and Saddiq Bey (13.5 PPG).
Johnson has been excellent with 21.5 PPG while shooting 54.5% from the field and 4 of 9 (44.4%) from three over his last two games. His points prop is set at 16.5 points for tonight. Plus, Johnson has been like a hungry, hungry hippo on the glass, grabbing everything in sight with 11.8 rebounds per game (RPG) over the last four. Hunter has also increased his production at 20.8 PPG over the previous five contests.
Thursday's opponent -- the Brooklyn Nets -- have the 12th-worst defensive rating and are 2-8 over their last 10 games. Brooklyn's starting wings of Mikal Bridges (117.1 defensive rating), Cameron Johnson (117.2 defensive rating), and Dorian Finney-Smith (116.3) all have mediocre defensive ratings, as well.
This could mean another successful game for Atlanta's wings, which I believe could ultimately lead to an outright win.
Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets
Under 213.5 (-110)
The Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets have been the most consistent teams in the NBA when it comes to betting on the under. It is 37-21 for the Nuggets (top mark in the league) and 36-22 for the Heat (top mark in the Eastern Conference). Put the two together and the under sits at only 213.5 for tonight's clash.
It's been business as usual for both squads as the under is 8-2 over Miami's previous 10 and 6-4 for Denver. Of course, both teams feature exceptional defenses with the Heat touting the seventh-best rating and the Nuggets carrying the ninth-best rating. A slow pace of play is yet another major supporting point for the under as Miami plays at the third-slowest tempo while Denver has the fourth-slowest.
While I do acknowledge 213.5 is a small total that draws some intrigue for the over, I won't go against what has produced all season long. The under and the Heat and Nuggets have gone together like peanut butter and jelly. This has been one of the most consistent bets you'll find in the ongoing NBA season. I'm looking to back the under yet again.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.