NBA Betting Odds to Make the Playoffs: Can Lakers, Warriors Stage Comebacks?

The 2023-24 NBA season is nearing the All-Star break, and the playoff picture is beginning to take shape. According to numberFire's playoff odds calculator, there are already nine teams with a 99% or better probability to make it into the postseason. So where does that leave the league's other 21 teams?

Five teams are already eliminated from contention, and the Memphis Grizzlies are idling with a 0.1% probability of making the playoffs. Once we start factoring out teams that have already signaled that they're calling it quits on the 2023-24 campaign, the playoff picture narrows even further.

But just because the number of teams still in realistic contention is dwindling doesn't mean the playoff bracket is already set in stone. The NBA concocted the Play-In Tournament for a reason -- to give more teams a chance to make the playoffs.

That said, if you're placing any bets on FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA teams to make the playoff betting odds market, please be aware that those bets require teams to make the actual NBA playoffs. Any teams that get eliminated during the Play-In Tournament will not qualify for those bets.

So which teams should you consider betting on to make the 2023-24 playoffs?

NBA Team Betting Odds to Make the Playoffs

Los Angeles Lakers (+102)

According to numberFire's playoff odds calculator, the Los Angeles Lakers are looking at a 39.6% chance of reaching the playoffs this season, which are the 17th-best odds in the NBA. They rank ninth in the Western Conference with a 27-25 record heading into the break. They're on pace for a Play-In Tournament spot, and if the In-Season Tournament was any indicator then we've already seen what this team can do when the stakes are high.

While the team has struggled with depth behind stars LeBron James and Anthony Davis, they also need more out of their top two players. With both James and Davis on the court, the Lakers are outscoring their opponents by just 0.7 points per 100 possessions. And if James and Davis aren't getting it done, it's frankly just hard to count on players like D'Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, Cam Reddish, and Rui Hachimura to carry the team.

That may all sound like a lot of doom and gloom, but the Lakers still have a pretty decent shot at making the playoffs and have a few things working in their favor.

First, let's recall the In-Season Tournament. The Lakers averaged 122.3 points per game over the entire event and 120.7 points per game in the elimination rounds. On the defensive side of the ball, they allowed 103.0 points per game across the whole seven games and just 100.3 points per game in the elimination rounds.

That's impressive. When there was something to play for, the Lakers fielded a top-five offense while completely icing out their opponents. The Minnesota Timberwolves' league-best defense is holding their opponents to 107.1 points per game. The Lakers' defense kept the Phoenix Suns, New Orleans Pelicans, and Indiana Pacers -- three teams that are virtual locks for the playoffs -- in check during the elimination rounds.

That's an encouraging sign for Los Angeles as the season gallops toward its conclusion. There's reason to believe they can reach an extra gear when they need to, and they looked like a fearsome playoff contender when they reached that gear in the In-Season Tournament.

Finally, it's worth considering what the Lakers may choose to do with the NBA trade deadline just over 24 hours away. It seems hard to believe that any team hoping to eke out as many championships as possible with James and Davis would become sellers at the deadline. It's much easier to believe that they'll look to acquire new talent like they did near last year's deadline.

The Lakers just need to hold steady to make the Play-In Tournament. We've seen them play like legit contenders when staving off elimination already this year. They might technically only have a 39% probability of making it to the playoffs, but at +102 betting odds, they're worth consideration.

Golden State Warriors (+320)

The Golden State Warriors' case to make the playoffs is a bit more legacy-based than the Lakers' case. Where the Lakers had a strong In-Season Tournament performance as a possible harbinger of better things to come, the 22-25, 11th-seed Warriors have no such silver lining. They legitimately need to turn things around.

The Warriors enjoyed a serious dynasty for a good chunk of the 2010s and even claimed another ring in the 2021-22 playoffs, but their years of dominance appear to be at a close. Several key veterans -- like Kevin Durant and Andre Iguodala -- are no longer with the team while most of the ones who remain -- like Draymond Green and Klay Thompson -- are visibly past their primes. Even Stephen Curry has struggled this year compared to seasons past.

These players' Win Shares per 48 minutes (WS/48) illustrate where they once were versus how the 2023-24 Warriors are faring this year:

Green and Thompson were both extremely valuable contributors during the Warriors' years on top of the league while Curry was playing at MVP levels. The three veterans' combined WS/48 this season (.301) doesn't even match up with Curry's .318 mark from the 2015-16 campaign. They've fallen a long way.

As bleak as the portrait we've painted is, the Warriors still have a 26.9% probability of making the playoffs, according to numberFire's model, and don't seem like the kind of team that will just throw in the towel on the season.

Plus, they have an out that other teams do not -- what if Curry just...gets hot?

Curry is the best three-point shooter of all time. Even in a down year, he's still averaging a solid .410 mark from the three-point range. If that mark creeps closer to his career .426 average, the Warriors could be back in business.

According to Tankathon's remaining strength of schedule metric, the Warriors have the 10th-easiest slate of teams left on their docket for the season. That could help them gain ground as the current 11th seed in the West -- especially if the 10th-seeded Utah Jazz deal Lauri Markkanen before the trade deadline.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.