NBA Best Bets Today: Timberwolves at Spurs Game 5 Preview & Pick for Tuesday, May 12, 2026

Top NBA Picks at a Glance

• Timberwolves +10.5

The NBA postseason offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. Our NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

What are the top NBA player props for today as well as the best NBA Same Game Parlay?

NBA Predictions, Picks and Best Bets for Spurs vs. Timberwolves Game 5

Step-by-Step Game Analysis

Step 1: The Series Snapshot

This series has been defined by home court and wild swings in momentum. The Minnesota Timberwolves stole Game 1 on the road, the San Antonio Spurs dominated Games 2 and 3 with blowout margins, and Game 4 turned on one of the most dramatic moments of the postseason — Victor Wembanyama's ejection early in the second quarter after elbowing Naz Reid in the neck.

Anthony Edwards had 16 of his 36 points in the fourth quarter to help the Timberwolves even the series with a 114-109 victory, completing one of the gutsiest individual playoff performances of the season for a player who was playing through a knee bone bruise and building toward full health game by game.

The series averages tell a clear story: San Antonio is scoring 114.8 points per game to Minnesota's 105.3, while rebounding is nearly even at 47.8 to 48.0. The Spurs are the structurally superior team in this series. But Game 5 comes with layers.

Step 2: The Wembanyama Variable — Cleared, Not Suspended

The single most important question heading into Game 5 was whether Wembanyama would face supplemental discipline for the ejection. Per ESPN's Shams Charania, Wembanyama will not be suspended or face further punishment for Game 5 — he will be back on the court in San Antonio. Spurs coach Mitch Johnson called the idea of a suspension "ridiculous," citing zero intent, and the NBA agreed. This is the market-moving confirmation that keeps San Antonio as massive favorites.

Wembanyama is averaging 25 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 3.1 assists in the series — and his impact extends far beyond box score numbers. His rim protection collapsed Minnesota's paint scoring in Games 2 and 3, forcing the Wolves into pull-up jumpers and contested mid-range shots rather than the downhill attacking game that makes their offense functional. With Wembanyama back at full strength and motivated after the ejection humiliation, expect an aggressive, emotionally charged performance from the generational talent.

Step 3: Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Identity

Anthony Edwards is expected to play in Game 5 and has been one of the biggest mainstays of Minnesota throughout these playoffs. He averages 28.8 points, 5 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game for the Timberwolves this season. His Game 4 explosion was genuine and earned — 36 points in 40 minutes on a bone-bruised knee, carrying a depleted roster through a hostile series environment. But the analytical context matters: the Timberwolves never fully took advantage of Wembanyama's absence, and they've long had a tendency to lose their defensive edge when an opponent's star player is missing. Edwards himself acknowledged it post-game: "When every team is missing their best player, everybody plays free."

With Wembanyama restored, the paint becomes a no-fly zone again for the aggressive Minnesota drives that generated Game 4's offense. The loss of Donte DiVincenzo has hurt Minnesota's offense — they are averaging just 106 points in the five full games since his injury, compared to 118 during the regular season. The Wolves' spacing is limited, their secondary creators are unreliable, and their path to scoring consistently runs directly through a 7-foot-4 rim protector who is furious and playing at home.

Step 4: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and San Antonio's Backcourt Depth

De'Aaron Fox averages 18.6 points, 6.2 assists, and 3.8 rebounds per game, while Stephon Castle averages 16.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 7.4 assists. In Game 4 without Wembanyama, Fox and Ron Harper Jr. each scored 24 points and Castle added 20 in what became a mid-range clinic from the Spurs' backcourt. The Spurs are not a one-superstar team — they have legitimate secondary scoring depth that functions even in extreme circumstances. At home with Wembanyama restored, that entire offensive structure becomes exponentially more dangerous.

The Spurs have covered the spread 43 times this season against 34 losses ATS, a respectable mark that reflects genuine organizational quality. San Antonio has covered 19 times in 40 home games this season — a 47.5% clip at home specifically, which is the key data point for tonight's bet.

Spurs vs Timberwolves Best Bet -- Minnesota +10.5

San Antonio is a sizable 10.5-point favorite — an eye-catching number that demands a strong performance from the Spurs. A spread of 10.5 points in a playoff game between two teams who split the last four games by an average margin of 12.5 points — driven heavily by a 38-point San Antonio blowout in Game 2 that skews the average — feels a little too lopsided.

The series is tied 2-2. Games 1, 3, and 4 were all decided by single-digit margins. The only blowout was the outlier Game 2. Minnesota has proven three times across this series that they can compete within possession-range of San Antonio when their game plan functions. Edwards in a Game 5 road environment, coming off a huge 36-point night, looks healthy. Rudy Gobert anchors the defensive interior. Julius Randle gives them a secondary scorer who can bully through San Antonio's switching defense.

I think the Spurs likely win, but the T-Wolves have shown they're more than capable of keeping it close.

NBA Betting -- Frequently Asked Questions

What does the point spread mean in NBA betting?

The point spread is a margin set by oddsmakers to level the playing field between two unevenly matched teams. For example, if the Golden State Warriors are listed at -7.5, they need to win by 8 or more points for a bet on them to cash. Conversely, a bet on their opponent at +7.5 wins if that team loses by 7 or fewer points — or wins outright.

What is the moneyline?

The moneyline is a straight-up bet on which team wins the game, with no spread involved. Favorites carry a negative number (e.g., -200, meaning you must risk $200 to win $100), while underdogs carry a positive number (e.g., +170, meaning a $100 bet returns $170 profit).

How does the over/under (game total) work?

Oddsmakers set a projected combined score for the game, and bettors wager on whether the actual total will go over or under that number. For instance, if the total is set at 224.5 points, an over bet wins if both teams combine for 225 or more points. NBA totals can swing based on pace of play, rest situations, and injuries, so it's worth tracking those factors before placing a total bet.

What are NBA player props?

Player props are bets tied to an individual player's statistical performance rather than the game's outcome. Common prop bet markets include points scored, assists, rebounds, three-pointers made, and combinations of those stats.

Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.