NBA Best Bets Today: NBA Picks and Predictions for Monday 5/4/26

Top NBA Picks at a Glance

• Knicks -7.5
• Timberwolves +12.5

The NBA postseason offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. Our NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

What are the best NBA player props for today?

NBA Picks and Best Bets for Today

76ers at Knicks -- Knicks -7.5

The most important context for Monday's Game 1 is the state of Joel Embiid. Embiid's probable status with a right hip contusion headlines the latest injury report, following his dominant 34-point, 12-rebound, 6-assist Game 7 performance against the Celtics that propelled the 76ers past Boston in their first-round series. He is listed probable rather than confirmed available, and his minutes restriction and load management in a short turnaround series remain pivotal considerations for how Philadelphia approaches the first 48 minutes of this series.

When healthy, Embiid has been unstoppable. He averages 28.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 7.0 assists over 36.5 minutes per game in four playoff games since his return from appendectomy surgery. His impact on the 76ers' offensive rating is equally dramatic — during the regular season, Philadelphia's offensive rating was a mediocre 112.9 with Embiid on the sideline but soared to 118.5 with him available, a mark that would have been fifth-best in the league. He changes the fundamental structure of what Philadelphia can do offensively and defensively.

His rivalry with Karl-Anthony Towns adds another layer — Embiid has averaged 41 PRA in 14 career matchups with Towns. In 11 career games at Madison Square Garden, he has gone for 41-plus PRA eight times.

The Knicks are the fresher, deeper, and better team entering this series. All four of New York's wins in the playoffs have come by double digits, while their two losses came by a combined two points. The Knicks average the second-most points per game in the playoffs as a team at 117.8 and have the third-best three-point percentage at 38%.

In these playoffs, New York has been led by Jalen Brunson averaging 26.3 points and Karl-Anthony Towns averaging 18.7 for a combined 45 per game. OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges also provided significant contributions in their first-round closeout win, dropping 29 and 24 points each in the series-clinching game against Atlanta.

The Knicks hold home-court advantage at one of the most significant venues in basketball, and that combined with advantages in rest and travel should be a key factor today.

Timberwolves at Spurs -- Timberwolves +12.5

The injury situation in Minnesota entering this series is genuinely historic in its severity for a second-round playoff team. The Minnesota Timberwolves lost Donte DiVincenzo to a torn Achilles in Game 4 of the first round. Anthony Edwards -- who seems to be trending toward possibly playing tonight -- suffered a hyperextended knee with a bone bruise and is expected to miss at least the opening games of this series. Ayo Dosunmu has a sore calf and is questionable for Game 1. Three of Minnesota's top-six scorers are either out or in significant doubt for Monday. It's up to Julius Randle to bring scoring, with the veteran power forward being the only one left with points in his hands.

Assuming Ant ends up missing Game 1, Minnesota's offense will be in a tough spot against elite opposition.

On the opposite side, the San Antonio Spurs are one of the most intriguing teams in the entire playoffs. San Antonio was impressive in the first round, winning in five games -- with each of their four victories coming by double digits against Portland. Victor Wembanyama is averaging 25 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 3.1 assists this season. De'Aaron Fox averages 18.6 points and 6.2 assists. Stephon Castle contributes 16.6 points, 7.4 assists, and 5.3 rebounds per game.

This is a remarkably complete roster for a franchise making its first deep playoff run in nearly a decade.

Wembanyama dropped 39 points against Minnesota in their regular-season meeting on January 17th. He has averaged 27.8 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 2.8 assists in his last five games against the Timberwolves. However, Gobert just played outstanding defense versus Nikola Jokic in Round 1, so Gobert -- if he can avoid foul trouble -- might be able to keep Wemby in check.

Until Ant gets back, the T-Wolves are likely in a lot of trouble, but this spread is big enough that Minny can lost comfortably and still cover. We saw what kind of fight this Wolves group has last round, and while I'd be stunned if they won today, I think they can cover regardless of Edwards' status.

NBA Betting -- Frequently Asked Questions

What does the point spread mean in NBA betting?

The point spread is a margin set by oddsmakers to level the playing field between two unevenly matched teams. For example, if the Golden State Warriors are listed at -7.5, they need to win by 8 or more points for a bet on them to cash. Conversely, a bet on their opponent at +7.5 wins if that team loses by 7 or fewer points — or wins outright.

What is the moneyline?

The moneyline is a straight-up bet on which team wins the game, with no spread involved. Favorites carry a negative number (e.g., -200, meaning you must risk $200 to win $100), while underdogs carry a positive number (e.g., +170, meaning a $100 bet returns $170 profit).

How does the over/under (game total) work?

Oddsmakers set a projected combined score for the game, and bettors wager on whether the actual total will go over or under that number. For instance, if the total is set at 224.5 points, an over bet wins if both teams combine for 225 or more points. NBA totals can swing based on pace of play, rest situations, and injuries, so it's worth tracking those factors before placing a total bet.

What are NBA player props?

Player props are bets tied to an individual player's statistical performance rather than the game's outcome. Common prop bet markets include points scored, assists, rebounds, three-pointers made, and combinations of those stats.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.