NBA Best Bets Today: NBA Expert Picks and Predictions for Thursday 5/7/26

Top NBA Picks at a Glance

• Pistons -3.5
• Thunder -15.5

The NBA postseason offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. Our NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

What are the best NBA player props for today?

NBA Picks and Best Bets for Today

Cavaliers at Pistons -- Pistons -3.5

Game 2 | 7:00 PM ET | DET Leads 1-0

Context & Series State

Detroit took Game 1 with a convincing 111-101 victory on Tuesday night, a win powered by defensive aggression, rebounding dominance, and the clutch brilliance of Cade Cunningham.

The Pistons won that game without their best player at his peak — Cunningham went 6-of-19 from the field yet still finished with 23 points, seven assists, and the game-sealing possession string that broke Cleveland's back. Tobias Harris posted 20 points and eight rebounds for his sixth straight 20-point playoff performance. Duncan Robinson drilled five three-pointers for 19 points. Daniss Jenkins had four steals. Six Detroit players finished in double figures, a total team effort that illustrated just how deep and well-coached this Pistons roster is.

The Cavs rallied from 18 down to tie it at 93-93 on the back of a nine-point James Harden burst, and Donovan Mitchell delivered 23 points on aggressive shot-making. But the story of Game 1 was turnovers. Cleveland committed 19 of them. Harden alone accounted for seven of those giveaways — nearly 37% of the team's total — and the Pistons converted that sloppiness into 31 transition and second-chance points.

The free throw disparity was equally damaging: Detroit attempted 35 free throws to Cleveland's 16, a gap that reflected the Pistons' physicality, aggression, and willingness to attack the paint in a game Cleveland could not afford to give away.

Detroit's Structural Advantages

The Pistons are 12-2 at home since March 12 and 9-5 ATS in that same stretch. Their defense held Cleveland to 45% shooting from the field — respectable — but manufactured enough chaos through turnovers and transition opportunities to build a lead that the Cavaliers couldn't sustain erasing. Detroit's top seed came with a reason: they finished the regular season 60-22, winning the Central Division by eight games over the defending champion Cavaliers. Their depth is genuine and their rotations are tight. Coach Monty Williams will have them drilled on the adjustments Cunningham and the Pistons' ball movement exploited in Game 1 within 48 hours of tip.

The Pistons also benefit from a critical injury note: Kevin Huerter is listed questionable for Game 2 with a hip injury after missing Game 1. His absence limits Cleveland's perimeter shooting depth and forces the offensive load back onto Mitchell and Harden — the same combination that already showed cracks under Detroit's defensive system in Game 1.

Cleveland's Correctable Problems — And Why They Won't Be Enough

Head coach Kenny Atkinson will attack the turnover crisis aggressively before Thursday's tip. The Cavaliers are not a team that commits 19 turnovers regularly — this was a clear organizational anomaly fueled by fatigue from their Game 7 war against Toronto and the early shock of Detroit's physicality. Mitchell is a certified closer and one of the best offensive playoff performers in the Eastern Conference. James Harden, for all his Game 1 struggles, showed glimpses of the maestro who dropped 22 points and seven assists in spurts. Evan Mobley went 6-of-11 for 14 points and nine rebounds despite foul trouble. Max Strus chipped in 19.

The Cavaliers are 4-0 at home this postseason and 0-4 on the road. That road/home split is the most alarming number in their playoff profile. They have yet to win away from Rocket Arena in these playoffs — and that trend now extends across Game 1 against Detroit. The historical data on teams down 0-1 on the road in Game 2 after losing Game 1 is brutal: since 2015, those teams are 29-80 straight-up and 49-58 ATS. The rare positive spin is that last round produced an unusual variance with four out of six road Game 2 teams winning outright — but Detroit is a fundamentally different challenge than any team Cleveland faced in Round 1. The Pistons are the better team at home right now, full stop.

Pick: Pistons -3.5

This is a pretty tight spread given that the Pistons won Game 1 by 10, outrebounded Cleveland 45-41, and had six rotation players drop double figures. The Pistons have held opponents to 42.2% shooting in four consecutive wins. Cunningham's shot-making will likely rebound from his 6-of-19 performance — he is averaging 23.9 points and 9.9 assists on the season.

The Cavaliers cleaning up their turnovers is the biggest counter argument. If Cleveland takes care of the ball, keeps Jarrett Allen out of foul trouble, and limits the free throw disparity, they have enough talent to keep this competitive -- or win.

But Cunningham is due for a better shooting night, the Pistons are at home, and Cleveland's road record in these playoffs speaks for itself.

Lakers at Thunder -- Thunder -15.5

Game 2 | 9:30 PM ET | OKC Leads 1-0

Context & Series State

Oklahoma City won Game 1 by 18 points — 108-90 — in a performance that was the basketball equivalent of a heavyweight fighter toying with an outmatched opponent while hardly breaking a sweat. The Thunder committed 16 turnovers, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored just 18 points on 8-of-15 shooting, and SGA openly admitted to rust afterward. Still, they won by 18.

Chet Holmgren was the dominant force, posting 24 points, 12 rebounds, and three blocks in 31 minutes, and Ajay Mitchell added 18. Oklahoma City is undefeated through five playoff games this postseason, sweeping Phoenix in the first round before emphatically taking Game 1 against Los Angeles. They are the defending champions and the No. 1 seed for the third consecutive season, and they have not faced a genuine test yet.

The Lakers' situation grows grimmer by the hour. Luka Doncic was officially ruled out for Game 2 as he continues to recover from a Grade 2 left hamstring strain suffered on April 2. His doctor gave him an initial eight-week recovery timeline, which would place his return somewhere around the last week of May — after this series likely concludes. ESPN's Shams Charania and Brian Windhorst have both indicated Doncic is not close to returning, has not done on-court one-on-one work, and faces significant ramp-up requirements before playing competitive minutes. Jarred Vanderbilt, who suffered a dislocated finger in Game 1, is doubtful. Luke Kennard is questionable.

LeBron James was magnificent in Game 1, scoring 27 points on 12-of-17 shooting -- and the score still wasn't close. The problem isn't LeBron — it's everyone else. Austin Reaves, just returning from a strained oblique, shot 3-of-16 for eight points. Marcus Smart went 4-of-15. Without Doncic to serve as a ball-handler, creator, and mismatch hunter, LA is facing a tall mountain to generate enough offense to keep this tight.

Pick: Thunder -15.5

While 15.5 points is a lot, OKC mostly has room for improvement on its 18-point Game 1 win, with SGA likely to score better. The Thunder's league-best D against the Lakers' short-handed offense is a huge mismatch, which played out in the series opener, and while Reaves will likely play better than he did Tuesday, the Lakers are going to have a tough time covering barring an off night from OKC.

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NBA Betting -- Frequently Asked Questions

What does the point spread mean in NBA betting?

The point spread is a margin set by oddsmakers to level the playing field between two unevenly matched teams. For example, if the Golden State Warriors are listed at -7.5, they need to win by 8 or more points for a bet on them to cash. Conversely, a bet on their opponent at +7.5 wins if that team loses by 7 or fewer points — or wins outright.

What is the moneyline?

The moneyline is a straight-up bet on which team wins the game, with no spread involved. Favorites carry a negative number (e.g., -200, meaning you must risk $200 to win $100), while underdogs carry a positive number (e.g., +170, meaning a $100 bet returns $170 profit).

How does the over/under (game total) work?

Oddsmakers set a projected combined score for the game, and bettors wager on whether the actual total will go over or under that number. For instance, if the total is set at 224.5 points, an over bet wins if both teams combine for 225 or more points. NBA totals can swing based on pace of play, rest situations, and injuries, so it's worth tracking those factors before placing a total bet.

What are NBA player props?

Player props are bets tied to an individual player's statistical performance rather than the game's outcome. Common prop bet markets include points scored, assists, rebounds, three-pointers made, and combinations of those stats.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.