NBA Best Bets and Player Props for Saturday 11/9/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.

Today's Best NBA Bets and Player Props

Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs

Spurs Over 114.5 Points (-106)

The Utah Jazz and San Antonio Spurs will meet up in the early evening on Saturday. Both teams are two of few groups who did not play last night, so their legs should be fresh in this one. The Spurs are averaging only 105.9 points per game (second-fewest in the NBA), yet I like them to clear 114.5 points tonight.

San Antonio is playing at the fourth-slowest pace in the league, which is a big reason why we're seeing low totals from their offense. Utah, however, is running at the seventh-fastest pace, making this a notable pace-up spot for the Spurs. To add, the Jazz come in with the fourth-worst defensive rating. Utah is also letting up the eighth-most three-point attempts (3PA) in the NBA.

A poor, three-point conceding defense paired with a quick pace has allowed Utah's competitors to get a huge bump on offense. The Jazz are handing away 120.0 points per game (fifth-most in the NBA). Five of their eight opponents have scored at least 123 points.

However, when the Spurs played Utah a few weeks ago, San Antonio mustered only 106 points. What happened? Well, San Antonio shot 41.3% from the field, 27.9% from distance, and missed five free throws. Had the Spurs shot threes at the league's median average, they would have gone for 118 points.

The Spurs aren't the best offensive team around, but they've still got a 45.9% FG% and 33.1% 3P%, so shooting struggles -- not volume -- was the issue in their last matchup versus Utah. Plus, Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, and Harrison Barnes are all shooting threes well below their rolling averages, so those three key players could see positive regression tonight.

Victor Wembanyama Over 37.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-118)

Wembanyama's props have been set too high this season. He's averaging just 30.0 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) -- well below where the market expects him to be tonight. He's exceeded 37.5 PRA in just three out of nine games this campaign.

Considering this trend -- which occurred last season, too -- I rarely look to Wemby for overs. However, I'll make an exception today given the soft matchup and the fact that I'm expecting the Spurs' total offense to outdo the market in this one.

As mentioned, the Jazz rank seventh in pace. Last season, Wemby averaged 39.4 PRA in 11 games against teams that fared in the top six of pace. He gets a major bump in pace-up spots.

The Jazz are surrendering the most points, rebounds, and assists to opposing centers. Quite honestly, this couldn't be a better matchup for Wembanyama.

The 6.5-point spread could also save us from a blowout. Plus, Wemby went for 41 PRA versus Utah earlier this season despite going 4-for-13 from downtown.

Based on my model, he's due for positive regression in all three major stat categories. We have a ton to like about Wemby in this spot, and our NBA player projections expect him to go for 40.1 PRA against the Jazz.

Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers

Donovan Mitchell Over 7.5 Reb + Ast (-125)

Donovan Mitchell might be undervalued in the combined rebounds and assists (RA) market. He's generating 7.3 RA per game this season. He's cleared this prop in just four out of 10 games but has gone for at least 7.0 RA in eight out of 10 games. The hook keeps burning him, but I think that'll change tonight.

Based on the league average conversion rates for potential rebounds and assists, Mitchell is averaging -0.3 rebounds and -0.7 assists over expectation this season. My model has him accumulating 8.4 expected RA per game. That makes sense considering Mitchell averaged 11.2 RA a season ago and netted 8.7 RA the season prior.

Tonight's game environment figures to be meh. The Brooklyn Nets run at the second-slowest pace in the league, and the whopping 13.0-point home favorites could blow them out of the water. I'm holding out some hope that things could get funky in what will be the second night of a back-to-back for both sides.

Our NBA projections forecast Mitchell to log 10.0 RA tonight, so the potentially sour game environment won't keep me from targeting a player who is due for a turnaround.

Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks

Trae Young Over 3.5 Made Threes (+124)

Tonight's date with the Chicago Bulls is a match made in heaven for Trae Young.

The Bulls (first) and Atlanta Hawks (third) are operating at league-high paces. Both teams are surrendering north of 120 points each night. That's why this one features a massive 237.5 over/under, and that's why I want to get in on Young's made threes prop, especially with plus-odds available.

Young is averaging 3.2 3PM and 9.6 3PA per game, but he's making them at just a 33.3% clip. Based on Young's three-year rolling three-point average, he's shooting threes 1.9 percentage points below expectation. Regression could strike tonight.

However, I'm far more intrigued by Young's volume than the potential for regression. Chicago is letting up 39.3 3PA per game (seventh-most in the NBA). Though the Hawks have yet to match up with the Bulls this year, they have played the Washington Wizards twice. The Wizards rank second in pace and cough up the sixth-most 3PA. On paper, they are a very similar comp to Chicago. In two games against Washington, Young combined for a seismic 23 3PA.

Young has nailed at least three triples in five of his last six games. Tonight's matchup couldn't be sunnier, so I'm thrilled to get this prop at +124 odds.

At risk of getting too ahead of myself, I'll shout out Young 6+ Made Threes at +500 odds. Since there's a legit possibility he attempts north of 12 shots from downtown -- especially given the close 2.5-point spread -- I want in on the alt markets.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.