National League MVP Odds: Is the Award Ronald Acuna's to Lose?
We're well into the MLB season at this point, and some things are starting to take shape. This includes the betting odds for the major awards.
Today, let's look at the National League MVP odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
While it's not quite the same as the American League, where Shohei Ohtani is the clear favorite, there is one player who's odds-on to win the award in the NL.
Player | Odds |
---|---|
Ronald Acuna Jr | -105 |
Freddie Freeman | +400 |
Mookie Betts | +850 |
Corbin Carrol | +1500 |
Ronald Acuna Jr, RF, Atlanta Braves
Ronald Acuna has been one of the most talented players in baseball since he first reached the big leagues. Despite that, he's never finished better than fifth in MVP voting, but that will almost certainly change this season.
Acuna has posted a .409 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and a 157 weighted runs created plus (wRC+). Both numbers are good for third-best in the NL. His expected wOBA (xWOBA) is all the way up at .453 because he's been making a ton of hard contact. His hard-hit rate is a whopping 54.6%
He's really tearing things up on the base paths, too, leading the NL with 28 stolen bases. A narrative could build among voters that steals are more important than ever with the new rules in place.
Being on an Atlanta Braves team that is currently in first place in the NL East helps his case a lot, and being a big name will attract attention when it comes time to vote.
Freddie Freeman, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
Acuna's former teammate is looking like his biggest competition for the MVP award at this point. Freddie Freeman won the award back in 2020 and has a legitimate case to be the winner again this season.
Freeman leads the National League in wOBA and wRC+. He's tied for second in the league with Acuna in wins above replacement (WAR) at 3.2. Like Acuna, his xwOBA is higher than his wOBA, so we can't say that he's been getting lucky at this point in the season.
Like the Braves, the Los Angeles Dodgers are one of the best teams in the NL. He also has name value and plays for a popular team. With the numbers he's put up so far, he's definitely a player voters can feel good about choosing, as he's a fairly safe pick for them to make.
Mookie Betts, OF/2B/SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
Freeman isn't the only Dodger who may be considered for the award because Mookie Betts is definitely a player that could receive votes this year, as well.
Betts was the AL MVP in 2018 with the Boston Red Sox. That season, he posted a 10.5 WAR, the second-best we've seen in the last 10 years. He's not on pace to come close to that, but his current 3.0 is fourth in the NL.
His numbers are good, but it's hard to see voters selecting Betts over his teammate Freeman when his wOBA and wRC+ rank only sixth in the NL. Freeman also somehow has more steals than Betts, who stole 30 bases in his MVP season.
Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Most baseball fans had probably never heard of Corbin Carroll before this season. It's not too surprising, as he only had one unspectacular MLB cameo appearance under his belt last season and is still technically a rookie.
Things have changed greatly for Carroll in 2023. He seems to have a better command over the strike zone, as his walk percentage has increased from 7.0% last season to 10.1% while his strikeout rate has decreased from 27.0% to 19.4%.
Carroll is just behind Freeman with a .418 wOBA and 164 wRC+. He trails only Acuna in steals among NL players. All of this has led to him surprisingly carrying the highest WAR in the league.
With the Arizona Diamondbacks being red hot and currently leading the NL West, Carroll definitely has a case as a dark horse for the award. He will start to get more buzz if both he and the club can keep up their current pace.
Carroll could experience some regression, as his xwOBA (.356) is well below his actual wOBA. However, +1500 is an intriguing price to get the current league WAR leader on a first-place team.
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