NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Wawa 250

We've got the potential for an upset on our hands Friday night in the NASCAR Xfinity Series.

Last year, Jeremy Clements earned a surprise win in the summer Daytona race, punching his ticket for the playoffs.

This year, an entry list that at one point included Kyle Busch and Ty Gibbs has been whittled down with those two being replaced by Justin Haley and Trevor Bayne, respectively. Neither of the replacements are slouches -- both are in the top four for win odds in my simulations -- but it does open up more win equity for the rest.

They'll still have to contend with Austin Hill, who has won 4 of the 10 pack races since becoming a full-time Xfinity Series driver last year. But with all the chaos, my model is showing good odds for someone else to take the crown this time around.

Here's the full run of sims prior to qualifying on Friday afternoon.

Hill deserves to be the favorite, but with his odds to win at +450 in FanDuel Sportsbook's Xfinity Series betting odds, I'm showing no value in betting him.

Instead, the value lies in three longshots. Those are Riley Herbst (+3000), Brett Moffitt (+5000), and Ryan Sieg (+6000). Longshots are longshots for a reason, and the odds they win are still low, so please have realistic expectations with these three. I understand why the model is on them, though.

Herbst is 0-for-132 across his Xfinity career in snagging victories, but most of his closest calls have come at pack tracks. He has finishes of fifth in Atlanta and sixth in Daytona this year, along with a fourth-place run in Daytona last year, as well. In 10 pack races since the start of last year, Herbst has 6 top-10 finishes.

My model has Herbst's win odds at 5.4%, up from 3.2% implied. I wouldn't be shocked if he made another push for his first win on Friday.

Moffitt has been competitive at these tracks this year even if he doesn't have the finishes to show for it. He had a ninth-place average running position in the first Atlanta race and a seventh-place mark in Talladega. He finished runner-up at the Daytona season-opener back in 2021 and had some strong runs at Talladega in the Craftsman Truck Series, as well. The model puts his odds to win at 4.4% versus 2.0% implied.

Sieg may be the one who intrigues me the most. He was eighth in Daytona this year, fourth in both Talladega races last year, and was leading in Talladega this spring with four laps remaining. He's clearly skilled on these tracks even without top-end speed.

Sieg has the longest odds of the group at +6000, and his win odds are 4.8% for me. I don't mind taking a swing at him, and Herbst would hold the edge over Moffitt for me if I were to rank the three dart throws.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.