NBA Futures Betting Fallout of Victor Wembanyama's Season-Ending Shoulder Injury

The San Antonio Spurs announced that Victor Wembanyama will miss the remainder of the 2024-25 season after being diagnosed with deep vein thrombosis.

It's a difficult end to what was a stellar campaign for the sophomore standout.

How does Wembanyama's season-ending injury impact the Spurs and the NBA futures betting market? Let's take a look.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Victor Wembanyama's Injury

It's been reported that Wembanyama was experiencing low energy in the days leading up to and following All-Star weekend. After running some tests, it was determined that Wembanyama is dealing with deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in his right shoulder. DVT is a blood clot condition that requires blood-thinning treatment and prevents athletes from participating in contact sports.

Notably, Chris Bosh was diagnosed with a more serious form of thrombosis in his leg, a condition that ultimately ended Bosh's playing career.

However, the Spurs are optimistic about both Wembanyama's short-term and long-term health and believe this is an isolated incident. San Antonio has said they are hopeful that Wembanyama will make a full recovery by the start of next season.

The Spurs' Outlook Without Victor Wembanyama

Wembanyama was averaging 24.3 points, 11.0 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 3.8 blocks through 46 games this season. Across the league, he ranked fifth in usage rate and sixth in player impact estimate.

The Spurs (23-29) were already on the outside looking in of a play-in spot, as they currently sit 3.5 games behind the 10th seed in the West.

Now, their playoff hopes are even gloomier. FanDuel Sportsbook does not currently have playoff odds listed for San Antonio, though the Spurs are now a harsh +40000 in the Western Conference odds market, good for the fourth-longest odds in the conference.

NBA Defensive Player of the Year Odds After Wembanyama's Injury

From solely a betting perspective, the biggest fallout of Wembanyama's injury is the Defensive Player of the Year market.

Wemby was practically a shoo-in to win the award before his season-ending shoulder injury. Here's a look at FanDuel Sportsbook's updated Defensive Player of the Year odds.

Which players on this list stand out? Let's take a look at the historical Defensive Player of the Year award criteria.

In the last 10 years, every DPOY winner ranked in the top 5 of defensive win shares and half of them came in first. All but one of these winners ranked in the top four of defensive rating. Further, all but three victors averaged the first- or second-most steals or blocks in the league.

Team performance matters, too. The DPOY's team held a .691 winning percentage on average and a minimum of a .585 winning percentage. Translated to an 82-game season, that's a minimum of 48 wins and an average of roughly 57 wins.

With this criteria in mind, who is the best bet to take home the DPOY award?

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+2200)

I'm as surprised at this verdict as you are.

Not that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander isn't a great defender, but I was expecting either Jaren Jackson Jr. (-110) or Evan Mobley (+110) to come away with the strongest case here.

Jackson currently ranks sixth in defensive rating and ninth in defensive win shares. He's averaging the fourth-most blocks (1.6) and 1.3 steals per game. (As a note, eligible players here have played at least 45 games and average more than 25 minutes).

If the season ended today and Jackson won DPOY, Jackson would be the first player in 12 years to win the award without ranking in the top five of defensive win shares. His Memphis Grizzlies (36-18) -- while very good -- are also a tier behind the teams of the other top candidates (Oklahoma City Thunder, Cleveland Cavaliers).

It's a similar story for Mobley. He currently ranks seventh in defensive rating and 10th in defensive win shares. He averages 1.5 blocks per game (T-5th) and is on a Cleveland team that hoists the best record (tied with OKC) in basketball. He and Jackson each have a strong case, but it's not quite up to par with what we historically have seen.

Gilgeous-Alexander currently leads the NBA in defensive rating and defensive win shares. He's also averaging the second-most steals (1.9) in the league as well as 1.0 blocks per game.

In the 21st century, Tim Duncan is the only player who led the league in defensive rating, defensive win shares, and ranked in the top five of either steals or blocks and did not win the DPOY. He ranked fourth in blocks per game that season.

SGA would theoretically be the first player to lead the league in defensive rating, win shares, and rank in the top two of steals or blocks per game and not win the DPOY.

This doesn't mean that SGA will or should win the award this season. Heck, he hasn't even been named to an All-Defensive team in his career, and the eye test would likely favor Jackson or Mobley. But considering how SGA's marks line up with the typical winner of this award, I think he's worth a look at +2200.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.