NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: The LiUNA!

With the NASCAR Xfinity Series in Las Vegas this weekend, we get a taste of something different.

The past two races were at tracks that involved plenty of drafting. That can keep lesser cars in the mix, even if they don't have the top-end speed of their competitors.

This time around, equipment will matter a lot. And how much you weigh that equipment may dictate how much value you see in the betting markets.

My model views the car as a major key at a track like Las Vegas. As a result, it's higher than the market on a couple of drivers with high-level teams.

Here's the full run of sims prior to practice and qualifying for The Liuna! in Vegas.

The three drivers where my model varies most from FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds all drive for top-flight teams: John Hunter Nemechek, Aric Almirola, and Sam Mayer.

Of that trio, I'm least inclined to bite now on Nemechek. His implied odds at +350 (22.2%) are well below where my sims have him (28.0%), but that isn't likely to shorten a ton even if he's blazing fast in practice. Most of the strength in Nemechek comes from last year's data, where his sole focus was on Xfinity. Now that he's running Cup full-time, I could see a scenario where the model overrates him. I'm fine waiting to see what kind of numbers Nemechek puts down before I pull the trigger.

Almirola and Mayer are different.

Almirola will now be Nemechek's teammate in Xfinity as he will run a part-time schedule with Joe Gibbs Racing this year. I was genuinely shocked when Almirola opened as long as +2000 to win this race, given his level of experience paired with likely the fastest team in the garage. He's now down to +1400 at FanDuel, but I still think that's a value.

What we've got here is a (recently) former full-time Cup driver entering his age-40 season (right at a driver's typical statistical peak) in a stupid-fast Xfinity car. When you put those factors together, my model gives him 8.9% odds to win. With his shortened implied odds at 6.7%, Almirola is still a value.

There's no team change for Mayer, but he's still got JR Motorsports equipment, likely second in the pecking order behind JGR. Mayer won the Xfinity race in Homestead last year and was fifth in the playoff Las Vegas race. He has clearly made massive strides as he enters his age-21 season.

My model has Mayer at 7.7% to win, up from 5.3% implied at +1800. That undersells the gains we saw out of Mayer throughout last year and makes him an outright to consider.

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Which drivers stand out to you for Saturday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.