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FanDuel Sportsbook Promos NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Kansas Lottery 300
With no NASCAR Cup Series drivers in the field for Saturday's Kansas Lottery 300, it's time for the Xfinity Series regulars to show the world what they've got.
Saturday is the final race of the regular season, so it's all about the full-time drivers this week. It's also the final shot those not in the playoffs have to win their way in.
But they're gonna have to top John Hunter Nemechek to do it.
Nemechek leads the series with five wins on the season, enough to earn him a promotion to the Cup Series in 2024.
The sims think there's a good shot his splendid week continues. Here's a rundown of each driver's win, podium, and top-five odds, according to my model, prior to practice and qualifying. The "CHK Default" row is a placeholder until that team announces a driver for the race.
Driver | Win Sims | Podium | Top 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Hunter Nemechek | 30.4% | 64.7% | 77.5% |
| Justin Allgaier | 14.0% | 39.2% | 59.5% |
| Cole Custer | 10.3% | 33.0% | 52.7% |
| Austin Hill | 9.3% | 30.1% | 49.2% |
| Chandler Smith | 7.5% | 25.7% | 43.3% |
| Josh Berry | 5.9% | 21.3% | 37.9% |
| Riley Herbst | 3.9% | 13.5% | 26.6% |
Not only is Nemechek the favorite, according to the win sims, but he's actually a betting value in FanDuel Sportsbook's Xfinity Series betting odds.
FanDuel has Nemechek at +250 to win, which equates to 28.6%. The model has him at 30.4%, giving you nearly two percentage points of value. It's not a massive bargain, but Nemechek is a fully viable outright bet.
The other two where the model is a decent amount above the market are Chandler Smith and Riley Herbst.
Smith is +1800 at FanDuel, putting his implied odds at 5.3%, below his sim odds of 7.5%. Smith nearly won at a similar track in Las Vegas earlier this year, and he had decent speed in Charlotte and Nashville, as well. Clearing the Cup Series drivers out of the field definitely increases the odds he capitalizes on that upside.
As for Herbst, he's in the thick of the playoff race, sitting one point above the cutoff line entering the finale. But Herbst has had plenty of speed recently, finishing sixth or better in four straight races on faster, non-drafting ovals. The model has Herbst's win odds at 3.9%, so there's a very high likelihood he doesn't win, but that's still above his 2.8% implied odds at +3500.
Have a driver you think could contend for a win on Saturday? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see where the market stands on them.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
