NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Food City 300

With the NASCAR Xfinity Series playoffs beginning and Cup Series drivers no longer eligible, Xfinity regulars have one big, lingering concern.

That's John Hunter Nemechek.

Nemechek is up to six wins on the season, two more than any other driver on the circuit. So, if you're going to win and clinch a ticket to the next round, you need to beat him.

Friday night might be your best chance.

One of Nemechek's few kryptonites has been concrete, the same surface they'll race at Bristol for the Food City 300. Across 25 races on concrete between each of NASCAR's top three levels, Nemechek has never won, and he has led laps in just one of them. That's a large sample, spanning dominant seasons in both Xfinity and the Craftsman Truck Series. For whatever reason, that dominance hasn't translated to concrete.

This could just be randomness, given concrete isn't a common surface. And Nemechek's form now is the best it has been. But it does open the door for someone else to step up.

Here's what my win simulations say about the race prior to practice and qualifying.

As you can see, Nemechek is still the favorite. It's hard for that not to be the case, given his form. But he's short of his 25.0% implied odds at +300 in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds.

The sims also can't quite get to Justin Allgaier's high implied odds despite his stout history on concrete. The form for Allgaier on similar tracks has been a bit more shaky, leading to the gap.

The big value here is Cole Custer at +850. Custer has had average running positions of sixth and third in the two concrete races this year (Dover and Nashville, respectively), and he ran well on these tracks in the Cup Series, too. Of his 12 career top-10s, three came at either Bristol or Dover, and he had another 11th at Dover in the mix, as well.

I am a bit worried the sims are too low on Allgaier, given his history. But that concern doesn't prevent me from agreeing that Custer is a bit undervalued and worthy of attention.

The sims -- as usual -- also show value on Chandler Smith at +1400. That's frustrating, given FanDuel's odds aren't even the longest you can get on Smith.

But as with other weeks, I get the sims' enthusiasm. Smith's stout history at Richmond does somewhat translate to Bristol, and he had a fourth-place average running position on concrete in Nashville, as well. I'd rather bet Custer between the two, but I still think the broad sentiment of being high on Smith is valid.

Which driver do you think is the best bet to win Friday night? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see whether they're a value.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.