NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Dead On Tools 250

Typically, Martinsville isn't a track where you want to bet on youth.

It's a super unique layout, and mastering it can take a long time. Thus, the perception is that veterans will hold the edge.

I do buy into that narrative. But when looking at this weekend's NASCAR Xfinity Series race, it's the youth that draws me in.

This is the final race before the championship, and three drivers -- Sammy Smith, Chandler Smith, and Sheldon Creed -- are basically in must-win scenarios due to their points positioning. My model thinks both Chandler and Sammy -- in their age-21 and age-19 seasons, respectively -- could get the job done.

Here's the full run of sims prior to practice and qualifying.

From a vibes perspective, neither guy will pass the sniff test. Sammy is leaving Joe Gibbs Racing to go to JR Motorsports, and Chandler could replace Sammy at JGR after being granted a release from his contract at Kaulig. But the data thinks they'll be strong.

Both guys have already won on a short, flat track this year (Phoenix for Sammy and Richmond for Chandler). Although Phoenix is very different from Martinsville, Sammy did finish runner-up in the first race here this year with a third-place average running position.

Sammy has been in a huge rut recently with tons of crashes. But his background is in short-track racing, and that's where he has had the best results this year. He's +1200 in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds, which translates to 7.7% implied. My model has him at 8.2%. The value there is slim, but I think the model may even be a hair too low on him.

As for Chandler, short, flat tracks have been kind to him this year. In addition to the Richmond win, he has a runner-up in New Hampshire and a fifth-place finish in Phoenix. He also had a fourth-place average running position in Nashville, which isn't short but is flat.

The elder Smith has run Martinsville three times between the Truck and Xfinity Series, and he has had a top-10 average running position in all three. His implied odds at +3000 are 3.2%, roughly half of what my model has him at (6.7%).

I've been on Chandler plenty this year to mixed results. I'm fine going back one more time at such favorable odds.

Have a driver you want to bet for Saturday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see where they're at.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.