NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Alsco Uniforms 302

As the NASCAR Xfinity Series heads back to a more traditional track, the evergreen question of 2023 pops back into the fold.

Can anybody top John Hunter Nemechek?

The Xfinity Series has run seven races this year on non-drafting tracks 1.5 miles or longer in length. Nemechek has won four of those, including the two most recent ones in Texas and Kansas.

That's the setup we have this weekend in Las Vegas. However, the first Vegas race this year was one of the few defeats on Nemechek's ledger. There, Austin Hill passed Chandler Smith in the closing laps to take the win.

So, can Hill challenge again, or is this Nemechek's race to lose?

My model's pre-practice simulations are riding with the latter.

Nemechek's win odds are almost three times those of any other driver. And with how the action has gone this year, they likely should be.

The problem is that even 31.2% win odds don't make Nemechek a value in the betting market. FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds have Nemechek at +180, which is 35.7% implied.

So, Nemechek himself isn't a value, but he doesn't leave much win equity to go around elsewhere.

As a result, only one driver has higher win odds in my model than their implied odds at FanDuel. That's Riley Herbst.

Herbst has seemingly made strides this year, even if the stats haven't shown it. He has had a top-eight average running position in three of the seven races on bigger, non-drafting tracks, and one of those runs came in the first Vegas race. Herbst is a Vegas native, so he's got a little extra motivation on his side even after failing to make the playoffs.

Personally, I don't see enough of an edge to bet Herbst. He's 3.1% in my simulations versus 2.4% implied at +4000.

Lucky for us, practice and qualifying are Friday night, giving us plenty of time to digest that information and get a new batch of betting markets up. For now, I'm content standing pat and hoping something opens up Saturday morning.

Have a driver you want to bet for Saturday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see where the market's at on each driver.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.