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NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Picks: AMEX Credit Card 300
This week in the NASCAR Xfinity Series, my model views a couple of drivers as being overvalued, leading to potential underrated drivers elsewhere.
Specifically, I'm well below market on Aric Almirola (+500 in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds), Sheldon Creed (+650), and Connor Zilisch (+900). All are among the six shortest in betting odds for the race, and I have a trio of drivers ahead of each of them.
Those three drivers are values for me, and they're values I'm willing to trust.
Here's what my model has prior to practice and qualifying, and then we'll dive into who those values are at the bottom.
Driver | Win | Podium | Top 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Custer | 19.1% | 38.2% | 49.2% |
| Chandler Smith | 14.9% | 31.5% | 44.5% |
| Austin Hill | 9.4% | 29.5% | 47.6% |
| Justin Allgaier | 8.5% | 27.1% | 44.0% |
| Sam Mayer | 8.1% | 26.5% | 41.9% |
| Sheldon Creed | 5.7% | 20.0% | 34.0% |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 5.5% | 21.3% | 37.0% |
Xfinity Series Best Bets for Homestead
- Chandler Smith (+1000): Homestead hasn't been Smith's best track, but he was seventh here for Sam Hunt Racing in 2022, a better run than you expect from that equipment. He was fourth or better in Kansas and both Las Vegas races, so I think this track type is a plus for Smith.
- Justin Allgaier (+1200): Hometead is one of Allgaier's worst tracks, which is perplexing given how well he runs on other slick tracks. He has won three of the past eight races in Darlington, so this track should suit him. He scored points in both stages last year, so I'm willing to bank on this number just being too long for a driver of his caliber.
- Austin Hill (+2000): Hill has a win here in the Truck Series and a pair of top-five average running positions in Xfinity. His speed last week in Vegas was concerning, but again, this number is just too long for a driver who is consistently in contention.
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Which drivers stand out to you on Saturday? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's Xfinity Series odds to see the full menu of options.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
