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NASCAR In-Season Challenge Round 3 Matchup Picks and Predictions for Sonoma
I expected chaos entering the NASCAR In-Season Challenge with Atlanta and Chicago as the opening two tracks.
I did not expect that chaos to have Ty Dillon, Zane Smith, and both Legacy Motor Club cars in the Round of 8. But here we are.
The downside of early upsets is that it sets up lopsided matchups late where the drivers are less likely to be racing door-to-door in the closing laps. We get that for this week in Sonoma with three drivers sitting above 68% to win their matchup, according to my model.
Still, a lotta weird stuff can happen, and the first two rounds have proven that longshots can still come through. So, who should we expect to advance to next week's semifinals in Dover?
Below are my model's predictions for all four matchups prior to practice and qualifying for Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350. As mentioned in previous weeks, if you decide to use these to bet, proceed with caution because it's always possible my model is over- or under-accounting for certain variables. That's an especially key consideration this week with several drivers so heavily favored.
If you want more concrete betting advice, check out our NASCAR Cup Series picks and predictions for Sonoma, which includes win sims and more for the entire field.
NASCAR In-Season Challenge Picks for Sonoma in the Round of 8
Driver | Matchup Win Odds | Break-Even Betting Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ty Dillon | 26.05% | 284 |
| Alex Bowman | 73.95% | -284 |
Driver | Matchup Win Odds | Break-Even Betting Odds |
|---|---|---|
| John Hunter Nemechek | 56.24% | -129 |
| Erik Jones | 43.76% | 129 |
Driver | Matchup Win Odds | Break-Even Betting Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Preece | 31.22% | 220 |
| Tyler Reddick | 68.78% | -220 |
Driver | Matchup Win Odds | Break-Even Betting Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ty Gibbs | 76.67% | -329 |
| Zane Smith | 23.33% | 329 |
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Which drivers stand out to you for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
