Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma

My model has been high on Shane Van Gisbergen this year. I just can't keep up with the market this week.

In the previous three road-course races, my model showed value on Van Gisbergen twice (at COTA and in Mexico City). Last week in Chicago, he was above 30% for me entering the weekend and 38% post-qualifying.

Thus, I don't think I'm undervaluing him. The model understands what a force he is. But the market has taken the love to a new level.

Van Gisbergen is +140 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds for Sonoma. Only one other driver is shorter than +1000.

That gap is right. I have Van Gisbergen at 30.0% to win, and nobody else is higher than 6.1%. But 30.0% is a far cry from his implied 41.7% implied odds, meaning I won't be on SVG, as scary as that is.

Given the Cup Series has been coming to Sonoma for decades and this will be SVG's first time driving a Cup car at the track, I'm comfortable being below market on him. I think it opens up win equity elsewhere, and it's win equity I'm willing to trust.

Let's dig into it all, discussing my model's pre-practice simulations and then laying out my favorite pre-practice bets of the week.

NASCAR Predictions for Sonoma

NASCAR Betting Picks for Sonoma

Christopher Bell to Win (+2100)

Christopher Bell already has one road course win this year, and he was runner-up in another. I can't comprehend why he's +2100 to win this week.

The win for Bell came at COTA when he passed Kyle Busch late to get the victory. It was his second road-course win in the Next-Gen car after he also won Charlotte in 2022. Across 20 such races, in addition to the two wins, he has three runner-ups and two other third-place finishes.

None of that success has come at Sonoma, but he hasn't been actively bad, either. He has finished ninth here each of the past two seasons, and last year's finish came despite Bell's being caught up in an incident.

Bell's the second-ranked driver in my model entering the weekend, meaning should SVG slip, he'd be the guy most likely to pounce. I have him at 6.1% to win, high enough for me to take a swipe.

Kyle Busch to Win (+2700)

Truthfully, I'd prefer to bet Busch to finish top five. I question if he can go out and win this race with how stiff the competition is. But with his top-five odds at +270 at FanDuel -- only a smidge below where my model has him -- the better value is in his outright.

We were on Busch's top-five market last week at Chicago, and he rallied late to cash that ticket despite being a lap down at one point thanks to a pit-road speeding penalty. He had great speed there, validating the near-win he had at COTA, as outlined above with Bell.

Sonoma is also a good track for Busch. He's a two-time winner here, and he was runner-up in 2023. He has finished top-five here in five of the past seven seasons and would have added another last year had he not gotten spun on the final lap.

If Busch's top-five odds lengthen before practice, I'd be willing to bet him there at +325 or longer. But at current odds, I'll take the discount on his outright at +2700.

Ross Chastain to Finish Top 5 (+300)

Ross Chastain is similar to Busch in that I like the idea of betting him top-five more than I do to win. With Chastain, though, we do get some relief as he's +300 to finish top five. I'll take that, even though I do have him as a better outright value than Busch.

Sonoma is a good track for Chastain. His worst average running position there in three Next-Gen races is 12th, and he finished top-10 in all three races. He was fifth last year thanks to the late spin for Busch outlined above.

Chastain has been more steady than flashy on road courses in 2025. His average running position has been between 11th and 14th in all three races, and his best finish is 10th. That's another nudge toward taking his top-five market rather than his outright.

Either way, Chastain's worth buying into. Clearly, Trackhouse Racing is cooking on road courses, and this one seems to suit Chastain's skills. I'm happy to back him once again.

Daniel Suarez to Finish Top 10 (+270)

Daniel Suarez got his first career win at Sonoma in 2022. It has since been repaved, so it's not a perfect comp, but this does seem like a good number on which to buy low.

Suarez has had bad luck on road courses this year. He got caught up in someone else's crash in both COTA and Chicago, and his car was merely okay in Mexico City.

This has been a trend for Suarez the past couple years. His average finish on road courses since the start of 2023 is 22.6 despite an average running position of 17.4. Some of that's on him; some of it's just variance, as we saw in the two races this year.

Suarez was competitive in Sonoma last year, turning his 13th-place average running position into a 14th-place finish. We know he'll be aggressive with no ride lined up for next year, so I'll bet on some regression coming his way.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.