NASCAR DFS Picks: Southern 500

If you are looking for an action-packed way to consume sports on the weekend, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America.

NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, though!

FanDuel Research is always your home for fantasy NASCAR advice. In addition to this helper, Jim Sannes takes a look at his NASCAR best bets of the weekend every Wednesday.

With all of this in mind, let's preview this weekend's Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway from the perspective of playing daily fantasy NASCAR on FanDuel.

NASCAR DFS Picks

Track Primer and General Lineup Strategy

Long considered one of the "crown jewels" of premier stock car racing, the Southern 500 at Darlington on Labor Day weekend is as traditional as it gets in the sport.

This year's Southern 500 moves from the opener of NASCAR's playoffs to the cut-off race. After Harrison Burton's win last week, two realistic spots remain with Martin Truex Jr. a comfortable 59 points above the cut-off line. Ty Gibbs and Chris Buescher have the leg up for them, but Ross Chastain and Bubba Wallace are still alive.

Of course, this will be a challenging one. 367 laps (and 36.7 FanDuel points for laps led) await these drivers on Sunday night at Darlington Raceway, a worn, egg-shaped oval that will chew up tires in a handful of laps. This track is patented for the "Darlington Stripe" after contact with the outside wall.

From a DFS perspective, we need lap leaders with so many available to lead, going into "short track" mode from that perspective. In this May's event at Darlington, the top-two lap leaders led 211 of 293 laps (72.0%). In this race last year, the top two combined to lead 267 of 367 laps (72.8%). Predicting those one or two drivers correctly will be paramount to winning tournaments.

For flex plays behind them, 5 of the top-10 finishers last year started 15th or worse. 40.0% of May's top 10 also fit that description. Because this weekend's starting order was set in small, single-lap samples, it's very possible some of the field's best cars are buried in the order. Plus, it's a track where you can pass due to tire wear.

Driver Rankings

Below are the top 30 from my post-qualifying rankings for each driver based on equipment, starting order, recent form, track history, and overall talent level -- in that order.

Starting Spot is where the drivers will roll off the grid. For potential lap leaders (i.e. high-salaried drivers), closer access to the front is better. For value plays, a lower starting spot gives a higher floor and access to 0.5 points on FanDuel for each position advanced in the order.

Practice Ranks are provided for both X-lap and X-lap average data. Those can typically be found at iFantasyRace.com for all times, including different intervals that may be more appropriate for the track type.

Jim's Sims are the win simulations run by FanDuel Research's Jim Sannes. This week's sims were updated after practice and qualifying.

MLT Rank, the driver's weighted average median lap time ranking at the relevant sample of similar racetracks to this weekend, is a great indicator of overall speed. The prior races in the sample (with weight percentage) this week are:

• Darlington (Spring 2024) - 50%
• Richmond (Fall 2024) - 20%
• Richmond (Spring 2024) - 20%
• Iowa (Spring 2024) - 10%

Potential Lap-Leaders

Kyle Larson ($14,000)

I default to Kyle Larson as the favorite any time the Cup Series heads to Darlington, and the NASCAR odds at FanDuel (+400) agree.

Larson had an unfortunate spin that resulted in damage to end his day in May, but he is the defending winner of the Southern 500 after leading 55 laps in triumph a year ago.

As he's one to do, Larson delivered when the results mattered to start fourth in Sunday's race, providing clear access to the front of the field behind an unorthodox front row of drivers below $8,000 in salary. That was a relief after a single-lap (10th) and 10-lap (19th) average speed in practice that wasn't ideal.

He led 15 laps in May before the incident; I'd be surprised if Larson wasn't able to use his skills right next to the wall to make his precense felt in Sunday's event at some point.

Tyler Reddick ($13,500)

The surprise of the May event was Tyler Reddick, who led 174 laps and probably wins it if not for a divebomb gone wrong late in the running.

Reddick had three podium finishes in his prior five Darlington starts, so the breakout wasn't a huge surprise. Darlington is analogous to a dirt track where speed is made right along the wall, which appears to be the reason Larson, Reddick, and Christopher Bell are all pretty strong here.

This weekend, the #45 was 7th in practice on a single-lap basis and dropped to 15th on the 10-lap charts. He qualified sixth. I definitely don't want to exclude him from my player pool based on those results when so little is to be decided in these short spurts.

It gets a bit tricky to build tournaments this week with Larson, Reddick, and four-time Darlington winner Denny Hamlin all requiring significant attention at the top of the player pool. We'll need value plugs.

Others to Consider

• Denny Hamlin ($13,000)

Mid-Range Threats

William Byron ($12,000)

I'm defaulting to an extreme "stars and scrubs" build when William Byron is another name to consider with those three.

To my surprise, Byron topped my median lap blend rankings this week, but it's based on consistency. He had a top-11 median lap time at all four races in the sample, including a 5th-place median in May's race at Darlington. He finished sixth among the chaos.

Byron enters with four straight top-eight finishes at Darlington in addition to the speed on this track type. He should go under the radar since he's not really flashed lap-leading upside in bunches, leading a career-high at Darlington 50 laps back in the 2022 September race.

The #24 was 5th on the single-lap practice charts despite an underwhelming 24th over a 10-lap basis, but he qualified 8th as a modest show of speed. If median lap speed counts for anything, Byron could be one of the sharpest pivots in the field.

Joey Logano ($9,000)

For better or for worse, the girth of top options probably leaves Joey Logano as the next place to pick up in the player pool under $11,000. That's a bit risky with May's winner, Brad Keselowski, in that group, but Kes' win had more to do with Reddick's demise.

Logano is not one to forget at "The Lady in Black". He's posted a top-eight finish in 6 of his last 10 races at Darlington, leading over 60 laps twice in that sample. Like Byron, he's also been slept on at this track type in 2024, posting a top-10 median lap at all four tracks in the sample. That includes a 10th-ranked median time in the May race.

Of anyone we've discussed so far, Logano arguably had the best Saturday. He was 30th in single-lap speed but improved to 7th over a 10-lap average. After qualifying 23rd, it appears the #22 is a long-run machine -- but that's exactly what we want in DFS to post place-differential points.

When also factoring in a lower salary to jam in favorites, Logano is my favorite mid-range pick.

Others to Consider

• Christopher Bell ($11,500)
• Chase Elliott ($9,500)
• Ross Chastain ($8,200)

Value Plays

Alex Bowman ($7,500)

This isn't a win-and-in spot for Alex Bowman thanks to his win at the Chicago Street Course this summer, but he certainly appears to have enough speed to capture the trophy.

Bowman may be "Schrödinger's contender" with the speed of a Hendrick Motorsports Chevy that doesn't always look that way, and that dynamic has even played out this weekend. In practice, Bowman was just 16th in single-lap speeds but ratcheted that up to 1st on the 10-lap charts and 3rd on the 20-lap charts. It shouldn't be a surprise if Bowman is able to pass through the field from the 27th starting spot with that long-run speed.

The downside to the #48 is that he'll likely be popular from so deep in the field, and alternatives exist. In inferior equipment, Noah Gragson and Erik Jones were also quick in practice but start 29th and 28th, respectively.

Nonetheless, I've got to back the Hendrick driver in cash games when he also posted a solid 15th-best median lap time in May.

Josh Berry ($6,800)

Forget an "accounting for salary" qualifier on Josh Berry. He's just flatly one of the best contenders to win this race.

Berry's #4 team did just that three times with Kevin Harvick, and he's absolutely dominated this track type relative to his salary peers this season. He had a top-10 median lap in each of the previous three races in this weekend's sample of tracks before the most underwhelming effort (16th at Richmond three weeks ago) recently. He's delivered a top-15 finish in each of these races, including a third-place effort in May right here at Darlington.

Among the odd drivers and teams at the top of the practice charts this weekend, Berry's precense was fairly normal. Though 18th on a single-lap basis, he posted a top-five average time on both the 10-lap and 20-lap charts. He'll start 15th.

While Berry is starting much closer to the front than others in the $7,000-range, none have the proven track record of contending for a top-five finish. I'd put him at the very top of the list among drivers who must win on Sunday to qualify for the playoffs.

Others to Consider

• Noah Gragson ($7,200)
• Erik Jones ($7,000)
• Todd Gilliland ($5,500)
• Corey Lajoie ($4,800)

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $200 in Bonus Bets guaranteed after your first bet of $5+ is placed! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking to play daily fantasy NASCAR? Check out the FanDuel Daily Fantasy NASCAR contests on FanDuel.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.