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NASCAR Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: The Brickyard 400

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3

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NASCAR Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: The Brickyard 400

If you are looking for an action-packed way to consume sports on the weekend, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America.

NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, though!

FanDuel Research is always your home for fantasy NASCAR advice. In addition to this helper, Jim Sannes takes a look at the best bets of the weekend in his betting guide.

With all of this in mind, let's preview this weekend's Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway from the perspective of playing daily fantasy NASCAR on FanDuel.

NASCAR DFS Picks

Track Primer and General Lineup Strategy

While the road course brought a few interesting afternoons, the universe feels right when we're racing on the famed Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval. It'll be interesting to see what type of racing we get in the return using NASCAR's most successful aero package in 2024.

If you're a casual motorsports fan, IMS' 2.5-mile oval hosts the famed Indianapolis 500 in Indycar each May, and NASCAR made its debut here in 1994. The last race on the oval came in 2020. The turns are unique, flat ones representing near 90-degree angles, so the overhead look at the venue resembles a rectangle. Tire wear will be a bit of a factor, but track position always reigns supreme on flat tracks like this.

There really isn't any other track on the circuit that can produce a quality comparison for us to Indy. Pocono's second turn is roughly based on Indianapolis, so last week's race is -- by far -- the best comparison point. I'd also add Gateway to that list with similar pavement and long, flat corners that require heavy braking. It's also wise to just mix in a few other larger tracks, too.

From a DFS perspective, we'll want to attack one (or two) cars to lead a vast majority of the 160 laps in the race. In 2020, the lead car led 68 of 161 (42.2%) of the laps. That number increased to 118 in 2019. In terms of place-differential trends, 8 of the last 20 top-10 finishers (40.0%) started outside the top-15 spots, which is surprisingly high for such a flat oval. The ease of passing in this aero package should only add to the argument we can be open to drivers starting deep in the field -- so long as we have a reason to believe they'll be fast.

Driver Rankings

Below are the top 30 from my post-qualifying rankings for each driver based on equipment, starting order, recent form, track history, and overall talent level -- in that order.

Starting Spot is where the drivers will roll off the grid. For potential lap leaders (i.e. high-salaried drivers), closer access to the front is better. For value plays, a lower starting spot gives a higher floor and access to 0.5 points on FanDuel for each position advanced in the order.

Practice Ranks are provided for both single-lap and 5-lap average data. Those can typically be found at iFantasyRace.com for all times, including different intervals that may be more appropriate for the track type.

Jim's Sims are the win simulations run by FanDuel Research's Jim Sannes. This week's sims were updated after practice and qualifying.

MLT Rank, the driver's weighted average median lap time ranking at the relevant sample of similar racetracks to this weekend, is a great indicator of overall speed. The prior races in the sample (with weight percentage) this week are:

  • Pocono (Fall 2024) - 35%
  • Gateway (Spring 2024) - 20%
  • Charlotte (Spring 2024) - 15%
  • Kansas (Spring 2024) - 15%
  • Las Vegas (Spring 2024) - 15%

Swaim's Rank
Driver
Salary
Starting Spot
Practice Rank (Single-Lap)
Practice Rank (5-Lap)
Jim's Sims
MLT Rank
1Tyler Reddick $11,500 11113.58%8
2Denny Hamlin $14,000 23224.28%1
3Kyle Larson $13,500 56314.58%10
4Ryan Blaney $13,000 72157.00%2
5Christopher Bell $10,000 18495.26%7
6Brad Keselowski $10,500 26742.80%5
7Chris Buescher $8,500 23853.12%12

Potential Lap-Leaders

Denny Hamlin ($14,000)

The closest track we race on to Indianapolis is Pocono, so it's no surprise Pocono's top performers shine in both pre-weekend and at-track evaluation measures.

Denny Hamlin is one one of them. Hamlin had the fastest median lap time at Pocono last weekend and led 31 laps but couldn't find a way back by Ryan Blaney late in the race. Even with that result, Hamlin carries the fastest median blend entering this weekend when factoring in his work at other intermediate tracks this season.

Hamlin has five top-five finishes at Indianapolis, and his practice times and qualifying effort suggest a sixth could be on the way. He was third on the single-lap practice charts, second over a 5-lap average, and qualified second.

Though his path to the front could be obstructed by a car that he owns that we'll discuss in the mid-range, Hamlin should make his presence known on Sunday. He's 24.5% likely to win in Jim's simulations.

Kyle Larson ($13,500)

Most NASCAR drivers in the field will enter Sunday's 400-miler with zero 2024 starts at IMS. Kyle Larson will make his second after an impressive run in an Indycar back in May.

That race is, notably, why Larson grades out much lower in my median lap blend (10th) than he should. Not starting at Charlotte penalizes Larson for 15% of it, but he's held a top-11 median time at the four other tracks in the sample. The lone concern? The lowest (11th) came at Pocono last week.

Nonetheless, Larson might end up a sneaky pivot behind Hamlin and Blaney because he's yet to show "outstanding" in any category. He was sixth on the single-lap charts, third on the five-lap charts, and qualified fifth.

We have plenty of quality options in the mid-range and among value plays; the bulk of my tournament builds will involve sneaking one -- or two -- of Hamlin, Larson, and Blaney in this top tier.

Others to Consider

  • Ryan Blaney ($13,000)

Mid-Range Threats

Tyler Reddick ($11,500)

While the top tier is full of contenders, the favorite, per FanDuel's odds to win the Brickyard 400, is Tyler Reddick. There's no doubt he's brought the best machine to Indy this weekend.

Reddick has been the fastest car on track this weekend by a mile. He was fastest on a single-lap and 5-lap basis in practice and won the pole. As mentioned in the open, this is a track where we've seen one car dominate and lead a vast majority of the laps, and the #45 is as clear of a dominator profile as it gets.

If there's a path to failure, it's just that this top-end speed is a bit surprising. Reddick had the 12th-fastest median time just last week at Pocono, and he had the 9th-fastest time at Gateway. Reddick has been a better sell on banked intermediate ovals, but the flat corners of Indianapolis have treated him well thus far.

Though a fade could pay off in tournaments if Reddick encounters issues or loses the handling of this machine, I can't imagine leaving him behind in cash games -- especially when he easily fits into a build with his car owner, Hamlin.

Brad Keselowski ($10,500)

Saturday's qualifying session left a surprising amount of contenders that showed speed in practice Friday or profile to have speed from previous events starting deep in the field. Brad Keselowski should be among the most popular targets.

A veteran of the Cup Series, "Bad Brad" finished fourth or better in three of the last four trips to the IMS oval, including a 2018 win. He's certainly happy to just not be on the road course. He also enters this weekend showing a good amount of speed at similar tracks. He had a top-10 median time at all but one of the five in this weekend's blend, including a fifth-place median time last week at Pocono.

In practice, Keselowski was seventh overall and improved to a fourth-place ranking when looking at the 5-lap charts. If he was starting up front, you'd consider him a serious top-five threat, but an error in time trials means he'll start 26th.

When we've seen cars advance from the 20s to score top-10 finishes, Keselowski is a picture-perfect example of when to accept place-differential options. Not only does appear to have speed to pass, but RFK Racing's analytics department usually nails the strategy. Chris Buescher ($8,500), starting 23rd, should benefit from that, as well.

Others to Consider

  • William Byron ($11,000)
  • Christopher Bell ($10,000)
  • Chris Buescher ($8,500)
  • Alex Bowman ($8,000)

Value Plays

Josh Berry ($7,200)

The last two times we've visiting Indianapolis Motor Speedway's oval, the #4 car won. Rodney Childers also was the crew chief for Kevin Harvick in both races. Surely, that momentum will carry to Josh Berry years later, right?

Berry has been qualifying well so recently that he's all but fallen off the recent DFS radar, but that's no issue for Sunday's slate. Berry will roll off 37th after a poor qualifying effort that was just a line error.

He's way too fast for this salary when starting so close to the rear. Berry had the 13th-best single-lap speed, which held alright (19th) on a 5-lap basis. I'm much more optimistic following a 16th-best median time last weekend in Pocono.

I'm not sure about you, but I'm just about entirely done with Kyle Busch, who has wrecked out of five of the last seven races with quotes that suggest he's not in a great space mentally. Berry is an excellent pivot as the next door down in terms of salary.

Carson Hocevar ($5,800)

Like Berry, Carson Hocevar has been fast and finishing well -- but also qualifying too well. It's been hard to reliably consider his underfunded machine in DFS. However, that's no issue from 30th on the grid on Sunday.

At a larger scale of speed, Hocevar has finished 17th or better in seven of his last nine races. If you boil it down to a more granular level, he had a top-17 median time at three of the five tracks in this weekend's median lap time blend, too. Surprisingly, that doesn't include Pocono (26th) despite a 17th-place finish a week ago.

Spire Motorsports' other two drivers have had speed in practice and floundered in the race, but I'm more willing to buy Hocevar's given his track record of turning it into a finish. He was 10th on the single-lap practice charts and posted the 16th-best time on a 5-lap basis on Friday.

There aren't as many elite value plays this week as we've found before, but the quality is better. My gripes about Busch aside, it wouldn't be a shock to see him, Berry, Hocevar, or Austin Cindric inside the top 15. There's a short core of really great ones to fit Reddick and friends into builds.

Others to Consider

  • Kyle Busch ($7,500)
  • Austin Cindric ($6,800)
  • Justin Haley ($3,000)

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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