NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: Ambetter Health 400

If you are looking for an action-packed way to consume sports on the weekend, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America.

NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, though!

FanDuel Research is always your home for fantasy NaASCAR advice. In addition to this helper, Jim Sannes takes a look at the best bets of the weekend in his betting guide.

With all of this in mind, let's preview this weekend's Ambetter Health 400 from Atlanta Motor Speedway from the perspective of playing daily fantasy NASCAR on FanDuel.

Track Primer

The new schedule leads to an interesting dynamic where we exit Daytona, a large, 2.5-mile superspeedway, for a smaller one.

Atlanta Motor Speedway was repaved before the 2022 season, and its 1.5-mile configuration is now a hybrid of a drafting oval (like Daytona or Talladega) and the other standard, 1.5-milers on the circuit. As a result, we'll still have tight packs and potentially multi-car accidents, but certain drivers and teams seem able to hold the lead much easier than at a larger circuit with more lanes.

As a result of the smaller distance, track position is far more crucial, and green-flag mistakes on pit road do cost multiple laps and rob a driver of a chance to win. However, tire wear also isn't projected to be incredibly relevant compared to a normal race.

I like the change. We can use some of our learnings from last week while also preparing ourselves for the normal ovals to come.

General Lineup Strategy

This week's strategy isn't quite as obvious as last week's.

In that one, we sold out for place-differential points, and if you picked the right drivers, it went stellar. Daytona 500 winner William Byron started 18th, and 5 of the top-10 finishers started 20th or worse. Historically, Atlanta has told us we want more of a presence at the front.

In March 2023, Joey Logano led 140 laps from the pole and won the race with the dominant car. The July 2023 event was cut short due to rain, but Ford -- working together in packs -- led 151 of the 185 laps run. It just so happened that Byron, last week's winner, cycled to the front as the skies opened.

We've now learned that teamwork and coordination can lead to a bulk of correlated finishes and laps led, and that dramatically changes the way we build this event from a traditional "drafting oval" race with near-certain mayhem.

With all of that said, I do prefer fast drivers starting at the back wherever they may be. With no practice this week, it's a bit tough to tell who that will be, but Ford's quick time trials on Saturday lead me to believe they should be the manufacture to beat once again.

Driver Rankings

Below are my post-qualifying rankings for each driver based on equipment, starting order, recent form, track history, and overall talent level -- in that order.

Starting Spot is where the drivers will roll off the grid. For potential lap leaders (i.e. high-salaried drivers), closer access to the front is better. For value plays, a lower starting spot gives a higher floor and access to 0.5 points on FanDuel for each position advanced in the order.

Jim's Sims are the win simulations run by FanDuel Research's Jim Sannes. This week's sims were updated after practice and qualifying. Only drivers with a win probability above 0% in the sims or a top-15 finish this season were included in the rankings.

MLT Rank, the driver's weighted average median lap time ranking at the relevant sample of similar racetracks to this weekend, is a great indicator of overall speed. The prior races in the sample (with weight percentage) this week are:

• Daytona 2024 (Spring) - 40%
• Atlanta 2023 (Fall) - 35%
• Atlanta 2023 (Spring) - 25%

Potential Lap Leaders

Joey Logano ($12,500)

There is no doubt that Sunday's favorite after qualifying is Ford and Joey Logano.

Ford took 7 of the top-10 spots in time trials, which only continued their aforementioned dominance at this track. Logano's ability to manage the pack was showcased in his 140 laps led in last March's win, and while he was more a "team player" in the July event while attempting to help teammate Austin Cindric into the playoffs, Logano still had the event's fastest median lap time (MLT).

Joey's drafting success isn't just limited to Atlanta, leading a race-high in laps (45) last week before a late crash battling for the win. With variance turned down a bit this weekend, I wouldn't be surprised to see Logano lead a brigade of Fords from the front row for a bulk of the race.

**Editor's Note: It was announced Sunday that Logano will serve a penalty under green early in the race and loses plenty of appeal in DFS as a result.**

Chase Elliott ($12,000)

If it's not Ford, Chevy probably has second place on lock after last week's Daytona 500, right?

Chase Elliott won at this track in July of 2022, missed this race in March 2023 due to injury, and returned last July to a solid run. He won the first stage, led twice for 13 laps, and likely would have contended for another win if not for the early weather.

Elliott is a great example of not "forcing" place-differential points when he's a threat to win regardless of his 28th-place starting spot. It just helps.

His teammate, William Byron, has this week's fastest median blend between the three tracks in the sample and is also a former Atlanta winner. Alex Bowman starts 17th with a bit of place-differential upside himself, too.

They'd be my three in a Hendrick Motorsports stack considering Kyle Larson continues to struggle in this format. From fifth on the grid, he's got just one career top-five finish at a drafting oval.

Mid-Range Threats

Brad Keselowski ($11,000)

Logano battled Brad Keselowski for the win last week before crashing into him, and this duo (of former teammates) dueled for last March's win at AMS, too.

I'm expecting they'll be working together and within close proximity once again despite Keselowski's 24th-place starting spot -- which only helps his case in DFS. Kes posted two top-six finishes at Atlanta last year with a career full of drafting-oval accolades, and the Ford blue oval on his hood is the right manufacture to contend given what we've seen this weekend.

Because of the starting spot, Keselowski is ranked second overall for me. I'd sooner consider a cash-game fade of Logano, who could trail another Ford for the bulk of the race, than Keselowski due to the place-differential upside.

Popularity considered, he might be the best individual play on the slate.

Ross Chastain ($9,000)

This is still a drafting oval, which Ross Chastain is well aware of after a dismal 2023 at Atlanta.

Caught up in a pair of incidents, Chastain might not pop off the historical trends list due to a 24th-place average finish in two races at AMS a year ago. Still, this aggressive style of track is a good fit for the Florida native, and he showed that in 2022.

Chastain finished second in both 2022 races at Atlanta, leading 74 total laps. Any doubts about his current form or speed have to be squashed by last week's effort at Daytona where "Melon Man" posted an 11th-place MLT and was contending for the win in overtime.

Ross is -- of course -- a threat to crash once again on Sunday. A vast majority of drivers are. However, his 21st-place starting spot does create a decent cushion if something happens, and it gives him upside for points in DFS.

Value Plays

Erik Jones ($7,200)

I've yet to write up a Toyota, but we know the likes of Denny Hamlin and Bubba Wallace are some of the best in the business on drafting ovals. It just hasn't quite translated to Atlanta yet with the Japanese manufacture looking for their first win since the repave.

Regardless of whether Toyota shows race-winning speed on Sunday or not, Erik Jones is a perfect example of not forcing a place-differential play. Jones will start dead last (37th) after an issue in qualifying, but he's actually done extraordinarily well here.

Jones' most recent finishes (all in Chevrolets before Legacy Motor Club's switch) at Atlanta are 4th, 8th, and 11th dating back to July 2022. He's been a routine player at the front, which isn't a surprise when also sports four top-10 finishes in his last five Talladega races. Plus, he finished eighth in last week's Daytona 500.

I wouldn't sprint to FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR odds and bet on Jones to win, but he's got an extremely high floor and intriguing ceiling in DFS. I've got him ranked 13th overall despite minimal win equity in Jim's sims (2.5%).

Justin Haley ($3,500)

A majority of NASCAR DFS players should do some basic research and figure out Ford should be tough to beat on Sunday. How do we differentiate from them in tournaments? Justin Haley's Ford could be an interesting way to build a winning stack.

Haley drives Rick Ware Racing's primary car with equipment that's a bit behind most others on a normal weekend, but on a drafting oval, J.H. can hang. Haley is former Daytona winner, and he finished 8th in last July's Atlanta race for Kaulig Racing.

While his 26th-place finish at Daytona wasn't stellar on its own, Haley was trailing Logano in second place before a fuel pressure issue.

I'm most terrified of another mechanical issue for him in this spot. Without one, Haley is proven to be a capable drafter sporting the weekend's top manufacture, and he's not projected to be very popular. Plus, he starts 32nd, so his place-differential floor is quite high in the event of a disaster.

Ryan Preece ($5,000) is another blue oval that I have ranked around the top 20 that could also be a less popular way to build Ford stacks.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.